I offer a contrarian view on the subject, and I argue that complain about cancellation are biased at best, since the mechanism at work lead to see the problem as functional to the fact that it works the other way around. Let me make my case with helps of some numbers and some statistical dry work:)
Based on my database there are between 1,000 and 1,350 Porn stars actually available in the porn escort market; this number refer to porn stars working with agencies, which accordingly to my research there are about 15 active, depending on how you classify them. From this total, I exclude UTRs, which in my view are a different segment of the market. When you consider the likely population of hobbyists, dealing with the agencies and the porn stars market, it is relatively reasonable to assume that the ratio hobbyists/porn stars is about in the magnitude of 10-to-15 to 1. We can get a likely parameter considering this: I did an experimental research using NYC and Los Angeles as a case study.
I proceeded as following:
I took a three time-periods measurement of the number of porn stars visiting NYC and Los Angeles in 2012: in June, September and December. For each of these months I calculated the total number of porn stars visiting and computed the average by month. Overall, on average about 45 porn stars visited during each of the months under study; I used agencies ads on Eros and other avenue, plus their announcements on their website to match the numbers for each specific month. I then eliminate from my sample those porn stars who were actually visiting under multiple agencies at the same time, or did visit both cities in the months under scrutiny here. I then checked TER review database to compute the number of review been posted that could be matched to the porn stars visiting NYC and Los Angeles. Keep in mind that I used NYC and LA as case study for a reason: Before doing that, I constructed a database from TER calculating the geographical distribution of reviews by cities, and NYC and LA were by far the most cited, covering about 47.3% of the total. That means that about half of the reviews related with porn stars are posted in relationship to porn stars that happen to be in any of the two cities. This distribution cover TER review Database from 2000 to 2012, so that is a reasonable robust result.
How many reviews were posted relating with porn stars visiting NYC and LA, during the three-time period under observation? On average, only about 12% of reviews were posted for each month, but many reviews were multiple relating with the same porn stars, probably a function of her status and of her stable market in both cities. In brief, less than 10% of reviews relates with visiting porn stars. The ratio between the visiting population and the overall population of porn stars is less than 1%; the ratio between number of review posted and the visiting population is about 12%, which can be translated as following. We know that reviews are not coming from a random sample population, since it is a self-selected population, so their probability distribution cannot be subjected to rigorous testing. However, we can use the inverse rule of Bayes to compute the probability distribution as following: 12%-100 = 88%, which represent the population of hobbyists NOT writing reviews. Then, the ratio reviews/visiting population became corrected as 88%-10%= 78%. Using this ratio, we can compute then the inverse probability distribution of the overall population of hobbyist versus the overall population of porn stars. Based on this complicated Bayes formula [PD 1,000 or PD 1,350/78%, based on the Bayes inverse probability function], we can argue that the likelihood of having a cancellation is as following: between a ratio of 1/11 to 1/15 porn star/hobbyist. This means that the likelihood of having a cancellation is a function of a ratio that is 11 to 15 times higher comparing to each odds of having a booking. To said otherwise: Each porn star has a probability of having a cancellation that is proportional to the number of likely booking. The ratio tells us that the probability of having a cancellation is in the order of magnitude that goes from 1/11 to 1/15 for each likelihood booking. Each porn star may well get 11 to 15 cancellations for each odds ratio of having a booking.
This result helps to explains:
1) Why some agencies require a deposit up front to minimize the risk;
2) Why many porn stars who are booking independently request a partial deposit when touring;
3) (and more importantly) Why the assume correctly that the probability of having a cancellation is way higher than having a confirmed booking, and why they attempt to off set that using multiple overlapping booking because even that confirmed booking is a tiny guarantee of going through.
Now this does not invalidates the idea that ‘money come first’ when cancellation happens. Clearly, is a perfectly reasonable assumption in this business that if a porn star has a 1K confirmed booking, and then another likelihood offer comes with a 3K booking, she or her agency will clearly favorite the latter over the former. But I will argue that this is a function of the fact that having a 3K booking offer make easy to off set the likelihood of having a 1K booking that is in terms of probability as uncertain as the 1K one. However, is it more important to construct their business in such a way as to assume a probabilistic outcome from their booking, and considering the number of hobbyist who are time waster, ‘pooper and snooper,’ and so forth, you cannot but understand how they evaluate the risk involved in their business.
We never or rarely on this board heard the other perspective. I tried to offer that ‘other perspective’ with the help of some numbers and some statistical inference.
I always recall Eddie telling me all the stories about cancellation told from the hobbyist perspective. We often laughed our ass off considering that the other side has a much risky position, since cancellations result in negative worth, not in time wasting, which of course as a cost, but that cost is very tiny compared to the costs involved in touring (e.g. booking, hotels, expenses related with staying, make-up services, and so forth). However, us hobbyist cannot resist the temptation of bragging about cancellations as if they were the end of the world.
Is not a random event that certain hobbyists rarely get a cancellation after requesting a booking: All in all, there is nothing more important than ‘reputation’ when booking porn stars. It is that ‘reputation’ that many hobbyist lack. But nobody talk about that…
WB