from her VP selection and from the Dem convention. Then we'll see. Right now, it's a tossup.

…I usually like to do them on Tuesday around the middle of the month, but this month has been a shit show because of the assassination attempt and Biden dropping out of the race. When major events happen I prefer to allow 2 weeks to pass for the polls to reflect this, but this has been a shit show because major things keep happening one week after another.  

 
Real clear polling has a interesting No Toss Up map, and it’s had Trump winning with 312 for a while now. They then bumped that up to 327 if memory serves, but with Kamala entering the race it’s back down to 312.  

 
As an elected official, Kamala has been really awful and spectacularly stupid, but we don’t really know if she’ll be an effective campaigner. Given she lost 92% of her staff I kinda doubt it. Obama doesn’t seem to have much confidence in her.  

 
She may have some appeal in that she seems like a fairly nice person. Biden and Trump have been bitterly partisan and Kamala’s niceness might seem refreshing to some voters. We’ll have to wait and see.