Brand new from the Emerson Group:
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Georgia: Trump 48, Harris 46

Pennsylvania: Trump 48, Harris 46

Michigan: Trump 46, Harris 45

Wisconsin: Trump 47, Harris 47
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And two polls showing Kamala leading in NH. That is significant bc Trump was leading Joe there recently:
http://www.wmur.com/article/kamala-harris-donald-trump-new-hampshire-polls-725/61703334
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This race is a toss up. Getting nervous yet Republicans?

from her VP selection and from the Dem convention. Then we'll see. Right now, it's a tossup.

…I usually like to do them on Tuesday around the middle of the month, but this month has been a shit show because of the assassination attempt and Biden dropping out of the race. When major events happen I prefer to allow 2 weeks to pass for the polls to reflect this, but this has been a shit show because major things keep happening one week after another.  

 
Real clear polling has a interesting No Toss Up map, and it’s had Trump winning with 312 for a while now. They then bumped that up to 327 if memory serves, but with Kamala entering the race it’s back down to 312.  

 
As an elected official, Kamala has been really awful and spectacularly stupid, but we don’t really know if she’ll be an effective campaigner. Given she lost 92% of her staff I kinda doubt it. Obama doesn’t seem to have much confidence in her.  

 
She may have some appeal in that she seems like a fairly nice person. Biden and Trump have been bitterly partisan and Kamala’s niceness might seem refreshing to some voters. We’ll have to wait and see.

RCP awards states based on ANY lead at all. So if Trump "leads" 47.1% to 47.0%, Trump wins the state. Silly, dont you think?

Which is great to eliminate biases, but since we have an entirely different candidate on one side it may not be very useful. It will take time for extra polls to be conducted to get a clear picture. The biggest surprise to me with doing these maps is that far fewer polls are conducted than I thought. There’s still states who’s polls are 2-3 months old.