Politics and Religion

Final week election predictions
lester_prairie 12 Reviews 1245 reads
posted
1 / 27

Based mostly on Rasmussen polling, my final week predictions are a Trump+1 popular vote and 312 electoral vote winning the swing states of NV, AZ, GA, NC, Wi, MI and PA (and all the other expected red states associated with 312.)  
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I would not be shocked, however, if Trump loses.  Everything is within the margin of polling error, and that assumes their poll weightings are correct -- which is not covered by statistical MOE.  Also can never predict an October surprise, but it is late in the game now.

cks175 51 Reviews 53 reads
posted
2 / 27

the polls are so tight, I won’t be shocked if Kamala wins.

RespectfulRobert 53 reads
posted
3 / 27

I can't even begin to think of anything THAT dumb, so close to an election. Megyn Kelly, who if anyone saw her on Bill Maher Friday said she is voting Trump, was excoriating Team Trump for what happened in NYC.  
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Kamala +2 in PV and she wins the EC 286-252.

inicky46 61 Reviews 46 reads
posted
4 / 27

The electorate has changed massively since 2020 and the sampling formulas have not fully accounted for it.

cks175 51 Reviews 72 reads
posted
5 / 27

Nicky hasn’t made a prediction and to date has only acknowledged that it’s very close. Yet when the pollsters report it as a toss up, Nicky says they haven’t got it right?

I’m also taking issue with the massive change in the electorate take.  We’ve seen more women shift to DEM post Dobbs, but we’ve also seen a shift of minority voters to the GOP.  Massive change? Incremental maybe. But massive? No.

cks175 51 Reviews 43 reads
posted
6 / 27

Veteran Democrat strategist James Carville is telling campaign advisors and high-level donors behind the scenes that Kamala Harris is headed for a historic blowout, telling them she will lose every swing state and probably New Hampshire and Virginia too.

lester_prairie 12 Reviews 49 reads
posted
7 / 27

Carville issued a non-denial denial. He said produce a witness and he'll part with 100 dollars.

inicky46 61 Reviews 42 reads
posted
8 / 27

If that report re Carville is true then how come he predicted a Harris win only yesterday on MSNBC?
Methinks ChicKie is peddling bullshit.

cks175 51 Reviews 43 reads
posted
9 / 27

Lester noted that Carville issued a curious non-denial denial re his private remarks. No one is questioning whether or not he spoke on MSNBC.

inicky46 61 Reviews 43 reads
posted
10 / 27

Clearly you were using the bogus Carville story to imply he really thought Harris will lose. Fester then bolstered the "story" by mentioning the "non-denial denial." I posted the MSNBC reference to point out what he ACTUALLY said in public. You were not "questioning it." You never mentioned it until I did. Your torture of language and common sense continues.

lester_prairie 12 Reviews 40 reads
posted
11 / 27

If you don't go over a notorious spin doctor's carefully chosen words with a proctoscope, you are even more naive than I imagined.

inicky46 61 Reviews 43 reads
posted
12 / 27

But sometimes things are obvious on their face; like that the original Carville story is utterly made up.

Hpygolky 233 Reviews 42 reads
posted
13 / 27

So I’m going along with the Raging Cajun,Regardless of what some have posted on twitville..
I don’t buy the twitter propaganda bullshit so…there

coeur-de-lion 400 Reviews 40 reads
posted
14 / 27

Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina to hit 270.  Everything else will be gravy.  

followme 52 reads
posted
15 / 27

calling half the country "GARBAGE"

there you go, now you have something more dumb, and you did not even have to think.

 

2024 = Trump270+

cks175 51 Reviews 51 reads
posted
16 / 27

So far, all the conservatives have predicted a Trump win and the liberals who have offered a prediction are going with Harris.  Is any conservative going to predict Harris? And lib going to predict Trump?

coeur-de-lion 400 Reviews 39 reads
posted
17 / 27

The conservatives are unemotional and form their opinions based on facts while the Libs are all about following their emotions and feelings.  The respective nominees know this and that's why they conducted their campaigns to target these two distinct types of voters.   The facts are not going to change for the conservatives, so they will stay the course.  However, moderate Dems who realized they are being manipulated through their emotions are still available for poaching by Trump.   That is why the more Kamala shows she is playing them through her repetitive rhetoric and avoidance of the issues, the more she will hemorrhage voters who will move over to common-sense with Trump.  She is trying to convince voters that it is more important to hate Trump than to want a better life for themselves, and even hard-core Libs are waking up to her scam.

cks175 51 Reviews 37 reads
posted
18 / 27

 FINAL 2024 election forecast

🔴 Trump: 312 🏆
🔵 Harris: 226

Odds:
🔴 Trump: 65%
🔵 Harris: 35%

cks175 51 Reviews 43 reads
posted
19 / 27

My Official #Election2024  Prediction:

🔴 Trump - 297
🔵 Harris - 241

I said Trump in 2016.
I said Biden in 2020.

Didn’t miss a state 4 years ago. My map:

inicky46 61 Reviews 38 reads
posted
20 / 27

Every swing state is within the margin of error. So at this point it all depends on the ground game. And Harris is better organized. Musk is in charge of Trump's ground game and he's a rank amateur, plus reports say his ground organization is poorly organized and rife with fraud.

lester_prairie 12 Reviews 42 reads
posted
21 / 27

I just found out my uncle vote for Harris.  That does it. I am no longer visiting his grave.

inicky46 61 Reviews 38 reads
posted
22 / 27

Fester finally said something funny!

coeur-de-lion 400 Reviews 37 reads
posted
24 / 27

It appears the only states left are NV, AZ and AL.  Trump is leading in all three and they total 20 electoral votes, which when added to the 292 on your map equals 312.

lester_prairie 12 Reviews 38 reads
posted
25 / 27

I've been waiting for the popular vote to be finished counting -- fucking Democrat retards in California -- to get the final margin to compare against my final week election prediction.  They still aren't finished counting but it's close enough to take the victory lap.
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I had predicted 312 electoral votes for Trump, a sweep of all seven swing states, and a popular vote margin of +1.
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Currently it looks like the popular vote margin for Trump is +1.6.   So I was off by 0.6 points.  And obviously got the electoral vote count and swing state predictions dead on.
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For the popular vote I used Rasmussen's daily results except I did a 10 day running average.  For the swing states I took the best (for Trump) of Rasmussen and AtlasIntel projections.  I think Rasmussen had Trump losing MI and AtlasIntel had Trump losing NC (thought AtlasIntel switched to Trump winning NC after I posted my prediction.)
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On a personal note, there have been a few DM's addressed to me, probably from members of this particular forum.  However I haven't had VIP access for a few months, so sorry those DM's remain unread.

cks175 51 Reviews 52 reads
posted
26 / 27

Great job. I had predicted 305.

LostSon 43 Reviews 43 reads
posted
27 / 27

I woke up the morning of the election sure they were going to steal it again but then I just had a gut feeling.  

Intuition 👍

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