Politics and Religion

Re: The brain dead joe biden is the October surprise.
lester_prairie 12 Reviews 1150 reads
posted
1 / 32

Based mostly on Rasmussen polling, my final week predictions are a Trump+1 popular vote and 312 electoral vote winning the swing states of NV, AZ, GA, NC, Wi, MI and PA (and all the other expected red states associated with 312.)  
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I would not be shocked, however, if Trump loses.  Everything is within the margin of polling error, and that assumes their poll weightings are correct -- which is not covered by statistical MOE.  Also can never predict an October surprise, but it is late in the game now.

cks175 44 Reviews 35 reads
posted
2 / 32

the polls are so tight, I won’t be shocked if Kamala wins.

RespectfulRobert 37 reads
posted
3 / 32

I can't even begin to think of anything THAT dumb, so close to an election. Megyn Kelly, who if anyone saw her on Bill Maher Friday said she is voting Trump, was excoriating Team Trump for what happened in NYC.  
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Kamala +2 in PV and she wins the EC 286-252.

willywonka4u 22 Reviews 29 reads
posted
4 / 32

…points to a Trump win at 312 EV, but it could very well be much higher. Harris is not going to do as well as Hillary did.

inicky46 61 Reviews 33 reads
posted
5 / 32

The electorate has changed massively since 2020 and the sampling formulas have not fully accounted for it.

willywonka4u 22 Reviews 36 reads
posted
6 / 32

This I think is the best case scenario for Harris. Trump could do much better than this.

cks175 44 Reviews 37 reads
posted
7 / 32

Nicky hasn’t made a prediction and to date has only acknowledged that it’s very close. Yet when the pollsters report it as a toss up, Nicky says they haven’t got it right?

I’m also taking issue with the massive change in the electorate take.  We’ve seen more women shift to DEM post Dobbs, but we’ve also seen a shift of minority voters to the GOP.  Massive change? Incremental maybe. But massive? No.

willywonka4u 22 Reviews 31 reads
posted
8 / 32

My What If Premise says that pollsters significantly undercount GOP voters in polls. The margins do vary by 2% to almost 10%. But there seems to be this odd phenomenon where that percentage varies by state. I assume this has something to do with how sophisticated and refined the polling is in a given state. I was looking at this the other day, and some states are really out there. The polling in Texas for instance is really bad. Nevada seems a bit goofy too. But Virginia seems to be pretty spot on. Their variance is not that high. This isn’t too surprising, Virginia has a lot of resources, a lot of federal workers, lots of military, etc. But places like Minnesota the variance is like 7-8% in the last couple elections. So how much the polls are off does bounce around a bit. But one thing I haven’t seen is any state undercounting Democrats. It may happen, but I haven’t seen any evidence of it.

cks175 44 Reviews 31 reads
posted
9 / 32

Veteran Democrat strategist James Carville is telling campaign advisors and high-level donors behind the scenes that Kamala Harris is headed for a historic blowout, telling them she will lose every swing state and probably New Hampshire and Virginia too.

lester_prairie 12 Reviews 33 reads
posted
10 / 32

Carville issued a non-denial denial. He said produce a witness and he'll part with 100 dollars.

inicky46 61 Reviews 28 reads
posted
11 / 32

If that report re Carville is true then how come he predicted a Harris win only yesterday on MSNBC?
Methinks ChicKie is peddling bullshit.

cks175 44 Reviews 29 reads
posted
12 / 32

Lester noted that Carville issued a curious non-denial denial re his private remarks. No one is questioning whether or not he spoke on MSNBC.

inicky46 61 Reviews 28 reads
posted
13 / 32

Clearly you were using the bogus Carville story to imply he really thought Harris will lose. Fester then bolstered the "story" by mentioning the "non-denial denial." I posted the MSNBC reference to point out what he ACTUALLY said in public. You were not "questioning it." You never mentioned it until I did. Your torture of language and common sense continues.

lester_prairie 12 Reviews 28 reads
posted
14 / 32

If you don't go over a notorious spin doctor's carefully chosen words with a proctoscope, you are even more naive than I imagined.

inicky46 61 Reviews 29 reads
posted
15 / 32

But sometimes things are obvious on their face; like that the original Carville story is utterly made up.

Hpygolky 214 Reviews 25 reads
posted
16 / 32

So I’m going along with the Raging Cajun,Regardless of what some have posted on twitville..
I don’t buy the twitter propaganda bullshit so…there

coeur-de-lion 400 Reviews 30 reads
posted
17 / 32

Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina to hit 270.  Everything else will be gravy.  

followme 30 reads
posted
18 / 32

calling half the country "GARBAGE"

there you go, now you have something more dumb, and you did not even have to think.

 

2024 = Trump270+

cks175 44 Reviews 29 reads
posted
19 / 32

So far, all the conservatives have predicted a Trump win and the liberals who have offered a prediction are going with Harris.  Is any conservative going to predict Harris? And lib going to predict Trump?

coeur-de-lion 400 Reviews 25 reads
posted
20 / 32

The conservatives are unemotional and form their opinions based on facts while the Libs are all about following their emotions and feelings.  The respective nominees know this and that's why they conducted their campaigns to target these two distinct types of voters.   The facts are not going to change for the conservatives, so they will stay the course.  However, moderate Dems who realized they are being manipulated through their emotions are still available for poaching by Trump.   That is why the more Kamala shows she is playing them through her repetitive rhetoric and avoidance of the issues, the more she will hemorrhage voters who will move over to common-sense with Trump.  She is trying to convince voters that it is more important to hate Trump than to want a better life for themselves, and even hard-core Libs are waking up to her scam.

cks175 44 Reviews 18 reads
posted
21 / 32

 FINAL 2024 election forecast

🔴 Trump: 312 🏆
🔵 Harris: 226

Odds:
🔴 Trump: 65%
🔵 Harris: 35%

cks175 44 Reviews 26 reads
posted
22 / 32

My Official #Election2024  Prediction:

🔴 Trump - 297
🔵 Harris - 241

I said Trump in 2016.
I said Biden in 2020.

Didn’t miss a state 4 years ago. My map:

inicky46 61 Reviews 17 reads
posted
23 / 32

Every swing state is within the margin of error. So at this point it all depends on the ground game. And Harris is better organized. Musk is in charge of Trump's ground game and he's a rank amateur, plus reports say his ground organization is poorly organized and rife with fraud.

lester_prairie 12 Reviews 22 reads
posted
24 / 32

I just found out my uncle vote for Harris.  That does it. I am no longer visiting his grave.

inicky46 61 Reviews 23 reads
posted
25 / 32

Fester finally said something funny!

coeur-de-lion 400 Reviews 21 reads
posted
27 / 32

It appears the only states left are NV, AZ and AL.  Trump is leading in all three and they total 20 electoral votes, which when added to the 292 on your map equals 312.

lester_prairie 12 Reviews 24 reads
posted
28 / 32

I've been waiting for the popular vote to be finished counting -- fucking Democrat retards in California -- to get the final margin to compare against my final week election prediction.  They still aren't finished counting but it's close enough to take the victory lap.
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I had predicted 312 electoral votes for Trump, a sweep of all seven swing states, and a popular vote margin of +1.
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Currently it looks like the popular vote margin for Trump is +1.6.   So I was off by 0.6 points.  And obviously got the electoral vote count and swing state predictions dead on.
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For the popular vote I used Rasmussen's daily results except I did a 10 day running average.  For the swing states I took the best (for Trump) of Rasmussen and AtlasIntel projections.  I think Rasmussen had Trump losing MI and AtlasIntel had Trump losing NC (thought AtlasIntel switched to Trump winning NC after I posted my prediction.)
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On a personal note, there have been a few DM's addressed to me, probably from members of this particular forum.  However I haven't had VIP access for a few months, so sorry those DM's remain unread.

cks175 44 Reviews 31 reads
posted
29 / 32

Great job. I had predicted 305.

LostSon 43 Reviews 23 reads
posted
30 / 32

I woke up the morning of the election sure they were going to steal it again but then I just had a gut feeling.  

Intuition 👍

willywonka4u 22 Reviews 24 reads
posted
31 / 32
durran421 22 reads
posted
32 / 32

You should give Allan Lichtman a few pointers. His "keys" were WAY off. He blames Elon Musk. 🤣🤣

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