Based mostly on Rasmussen polling, my final week predictions are a Trump+1 popular vote and 312 electoral vote winning the swing states of NV, AZ, GA, NC, Wi, MI and PA (and all the other expected red states associated with 312.) . I would not be shocked, however, if Trump loses. Everything is within the margin of polling error, and that assumes their poll weightings are correct -- which is not covered by statistical MOE. Also can never predict an October surprise, but it is late in the game now.
It appears the only states left are NV, AZ and AL. Trump is leading in all three and they total 20 electoral votes, which when added to the 292 on your map equals 312.
I can't even begin to think of anything THAT dumb, so close to an election. Megyn Kelly, who if anyone saw her on Bill Maher Friday said she is voting Trump, was excoriating Team Trump for what happened in NYC. . Kamala +2 in PV and she wins the EC 286-252.
Nicky hasn’t made a prediction and to date has only acknowledged that it’s very close. Yet when the pollsters report it as a toss up, Nicky says they haven’t got it right?
I’m also taking issue with the massive change in the electorate take. We’ve seen more women shift to DEM post Dobbs, but we’ve also seen a shift of minority voters to the GOP. Massive change? Incremental maybe. But massive? No.
So far, all the conservatives have predicted a Trump win and the liberals who have offered a prediction are going with Harris. Is any conservative going to predict Harris? And lib going to predict Trump?
The conservatives are unemotional and form their opinions based on facts while the Libs are all about following their emotions and feelings. The respective nominees know this and that's why they conducted their campaigns to target these two distinct types of voters. The facts are not going to change for the conservatives, so they will stay the course. However, moderate Dems who realized they are being manipulated through their emotions are still available for poaching by Trump. That is why the more Kamala shows she is playing them through her repetitive rhetoric and avoidance of the issues, the more she will hemorrhage voters who will move over to common-sense with Trump. She is trying to convince voters that it is more important to hate Trump than to want a better life for themselves, and even hard-core Libs are waking up to her scam.
Every swing state is within the margin of error. So at this point it all depends on the ground game. And Harris is better organized. Musk is in charge of Trump's ground game and he's a rank amateur, plus reports say his ground organization is poorly organized and rife with fraud.
I've been waiting for the popular vote to be finished counting -- fucking Democrat retards in California -- to get the final margin to compare against my final week election prediction. They still aren't finished counting but it's close enough to take the victory lap. . I had predicted 312 electoral votes for Trump, a sweep of all seven swing states, and a popular vote margin of +1. . Currently it looks like the popular vote margin for Trump is +1.6. So I was off by 0.6 points. And obviously got the electoral vote count and swing state predictions dead on. . For the popular vote I used Rasmussen's daily results except I did a 10 day running average. For the swing states I took the best (for Trump) of Rasmussen and AtlasIntel projections. I think Rasmussen had Trump losing MI and AtlasIntel had Trump losing NC (thought AtlasIntel switched to Trump winning NC after I posted my prediction.) . On a personal note, there have been a few DM's addressed to me, probably from members of this particular forum. However I haven't had VIP access for a few months, so sorry those DM's remain unread.
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