Hey guys, what are your thoughts on the US returning to "normal" in mid-late 2021, and on the vaccine rollout?

but without assigning blame, I think what going to be considered "normal" is going to be a "new normal" and life as we knew it is never going to go back to exactly the way things were.

I agree as well, plan on seeing masks continue for a long time in public places, even with vaccines, not coming back to life for a long time. Maybe as long as 2022. The paranoia of the elderly or the even the youth will stay away with the outlooks of “let’s see if the vaccine is going to work” as well as those that may not get the vaccine due to the logistics of the lack of time and studies of the side affects down the road. I’m on the fence of getting it. Dining in will cause new issues with trust of the people sitting next to you. An open cough or sneeze will end up getting the looks of the equivalent of shitting your pants in some eyes. There has been a lot of damage and useless scares put into people’s minds to actually be able to gage when this will become somewhat normal again.  Is this legit? Yes. Is it worth the hype and the reckless shut downs of businesses that the government has issued. No.  After all it has a 98%+ survival rate.  

some "normalization" of freedoms and activities by the end of 2021, but we'll still be wearing masks while doing so. I believe much depends upon the speed and participation in the vaccine rollout; If we get 60-70% vaccination rates by mid-year, then I'm pretty sure we'll get there. Unfortunately, we are not on pace for that at the moment.

GaG, thanks for the response. I agree with the Patriot Act analogy/reference, but with so many people already causing static and resisting new measures, and with so much economic destruction taking place, wouldn't it be in the interest of the powers that be to return us to as close to previous normal as possible? I mean, we can't just be locked up forever, aren't the global elites losing shitloads of money like that? Look at China, they're already pretty much back to normal. I think this is more of a human nature issue than a government control issue...

Severe lockdowns have really done damage to state and local economies.  As much as governments would like to retain these new powers, they end up seriously harming their local economies.  Now that elections are over, the more intense lockdown advocates are starting to pivot toward opening up.  

forever or gets worse.  
You don't like my answer? When you ask a question you get different answers and that is mine.

By fall 2021, so hang in there.
Now see how easy that was? All the other post when into some "World according to me" shit...Fuck people, just answer the questions.

And there will be no "powers" retained by either state or the Feds, notwithstanding our resident maroon who made the bogus comparison to the Patriot Act, to which nothing comparable has been foisted on us this time around.

Mr Martini you are entitled to your opinion and there's nothing wrong with that!

Every time people try to go "back to normal", the virus hits back.

but if you're hoping for life as it was prior to 2020, not a chance. For me a lot will be about international travel and that is still, and will be, rather problematic.

1) Both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are 95% effective at protecting someone from ANY infection, not 90%. That is actually a very high level of effectiveness for a vaccine. Flu vaccines are often only about 60% effective.
2) But that does NOT mean the other 5% of people will get seriously ill. Because even that 5% get SOME protection from the vaccine and if they're infected will get a very mild form of the illness. So we do NOT need a vaccine that's 99% effective. Herd immunity could be achieved with a vaccine that is LESS than 95% effective because there would be almost no way for it to spread.
The only way this analysis could prove incorrect is if not enough people get vaccinated.
The virus is mutating but none of the mutations make the vaccine ineffective. So far.
Just as important, the form of the mRNA vaccine has been proven and it's quickly adaptable to a new mutation that would make the current vaccines ineffective.
So your analysis is seriously flawed.

And in this case, your .02 isn't worth 2 shits.

Sorry, I was wrong, it is 95% but only after second vaccine.

but things could keep us from getting and delay normal until December 2021.

Looks like they're rolling some of the relief packages out through September, which means - the gov't is planning after September...

the better, in my opinion. September may just be possible.

and with the UK mutation will be really difficult. Now not all the countries have the possibility to buy the vaccines for the entire population or have the infraestructure to the vaccine' storage.
Even when you have the  pfizer vaccine, will be ok after 2 weeks of the 2nd dose.  The group immunity will take time to come. 2021 will be hard also for the economical consequences. Patiente.

Wow, someone posting that actually "gets it".

your claims in your second point?

I have to laugh.  Does the government know anything about anything these days?

I found the attached video explaining the vaccine trial results helpful.

It really depends on r0, the value of which is still debated for covid, and how many people are vaccinated.

I don't believe I said people who didn't get vaccinated don't get the virus. I said the 5% in tests who WERE vaccinated and still got infected came down with a less deadly form of Covid, so they DID get some protection from the vaccine, just not complete protection.

mostly on age, not economic status.  Since the vaccine is free, what evidence do you have that poor people as a group will take a pass on getting vaccinated?  I think its the opposite.  Poorer areas of the nation have a higher infection rate and a higher death rate.  Poor people know that, and I think they will get in line when its their turn to be vaccinated based on the  CDC priority scheme.  

At this point R0 is not relevant. The effective replication number Re or Rt (current period time replication) are much more relevant and that value is heavily influenced by things like social reactions to epidemics/pandemics, degree of prior exposure of populations to the infectious disease and vaccination level.

That is President Biden's plan, but I don't think that will pass congress. But hoping we get normal, or close to normal soon as well. Fingers crossed.

Fair enough. I will concede I only have fairly superficial knowledge, but to me it seems like there's way too many unknowns and also too many roadblocks. From brief reading on r0, and evaluating the spread rate, vaccination rates and current cases, I don't really have a positive outlook of going back to normal soon.  

I believe you will see things began to turn the corner in conjunction with the availability of the vaccine, improved supply chain, and processes with strong coordination with agencies and government working hand and glove.   I'm targeting the mid year,  late 2nd quarter.  However,  I do believe there will be a new normal as a result of this experience.  We will all operate differently.  I don't see us going back to exactly the way things were.  I know there are some things I will continue to do and be very mindful of regarding behavior and actions.

There is a correlation between being poor and being ignorant.

that are political, but local government, community groups and the churches are all making a huge effort to get the word out.  I don't think its still thought of as a political issue, at least not in SoCal where I live.

There will be continue to be some glitches and setbacks, but with probably 3 approved vaccines and supply pressures easing by spring, we should have close to 1/3 of the US population vaccinated going into the second half of 2021. With warmer weather slowing the spread, things will start feeling like they are getting back to normal. Social pressure for things like mask wearing will probably continue until the vaccination rate gets up above 60%.

By choice
Or maybe just realistic by whatever

A mask is optional by the Labor Day weekend.