She basically doubled down on that for Dec. and the Dow is flat with the S&P and NASDAQ up nicely.
I can't wait to deliver that Crow Sandwich you ordered.
The clock is ticking.
I never thought anyone would ever surpass Alan Greenspan in speaking in "gobbledy gook", but she takes the cake.
That said, because of the Trump factor, I am coming off my dire prediction that higher interest rates are going to kill both the economy and the market. If Trump gets even 20% of what he's asking for, and IMO he's likely to get more like 50% of what he's asking for, I believe the Fed is going to have no choice but to raise rates to keep pace with what otherwise is likely to be a "runaway economy" What a nice problem to have. The good news is that it looks like the fed is not going to be too heavy handed about it, but rate hikes ARE coming.
Now, the downside of course is that the upcoming expected economic boom is going to come with a price, and that price is sharply increased deficits as Trump not only lowers taxes, but increases spending at the same time. I am sure this will be mitigated by a much higher GDP, but I don't see this happening without running up the debt.
I still find it ironic that Yellen is still twisting herself into a pretzel trying to give cover to her outgoing boss. They say two wrongs don't make a right, but it is quite possible to come to the right conclusion based on several false assumptions or more accurately "rationalizations" which is what she is doing right this very minute.
I do have an interpreter, my financial adviser.
Also I heard that a shit load (OK that is not the technical term) of oil was just found in Texas. Estimated to be 20 billion bbls.
Your thoughts, comments
LI = 5
It's getting to be like my refrigerator. I haven't cleared it out in nearly two weeks now. When I open the door, I think I'd better throw out that yogurt. It has to've gone bad. But maybe it's better kept in the fridge than in the garbage until I'm ready to take out trash. So later I get a beer and think, Hmm, that lettuce is turning chartreuse. But I get my beer and close the door.
If it isn't absolutely necessary, why not put it off? Won't get TOO bad for at least another day or two. No one to poison except myself.
This weekend I'll clean the fridge out completely. Even I have limits.
So Yellen seems to have the same problem. The markets will dip, a few companies will panic for maybe 3 or 4 days, grumbling from the EU will make the 6:00 news, and pundits will debate the wisdom of it. All that fuss--maybe better to put it off till next quarter.
Then there's the convoluted language to explain why without signaling that ain't ever gonna happen, but reassuring that NEXT quarter the economic conditions will determine what to do at the time so no reason for a sell off.
I've talked myself into it! I'm going to clean out my refrigerator RIGHT NOW!!!
And being a deficit/debt hawk, this is my biggest worry with Trump Inc.
Short/moderate term prosperity, long term disaster.
So in that regard, Trump will not be any different than those that preceded him, and may be much worse, debt wise.
She basically doubled down on that for Dec. and the Dow is flat with the S&P and NASDAQ up nicely.
I can't wait to deliver that Crow Sandwich you ordered.
The clock is ticking.
Unlike you dumbasses who won't change heading even when you find you are headed towards the iceberg. I can see the writing on the wall and have changed my opinion. That was the whole point of my post dumbass.
Yellen has held rates down because of the anemic growth under Obama and to give Obama cover as the market WOULD HAVE tanked a thousand points if she had raised rates in either of the last two cycles, and that would have been bad for Hillary running as Obama's third term.
Now that Trump, and many of his policies are a reality, the market isn't looking at increased rates with the same doom and gloom as they were only a few short days ago. A major tax cut, combined with increased spending AND a potential 2 TRILLION shot in the arm to the economy will make a series of rate hikes inevitable. Getting in front of it now, rather than being reactionary and "heavy handed" in a few months actually makes sense, and for once I agree with Yellen, even though she spent the last couple of hours lying out of her ass as to the reasons why.
Your statement about 1,000 points off the Dow was very recent. When I have the time I'll find it.
Yellen has held rates down because of the anemic growth under Obama and to give Obama cover as the market WOULD HAVE tanked a thousand points if she had raised rates in either of the last two cycles, and that would have been bad for Hillary running as Obama's third term.
Now that Trump, and many of his policies are a reality, the market isn't looking at increased rates with the same doom and gloom as they were only a few short days ago. A major tax cut, combined with increased spending AND a potential 2 TRILLION shot in the arm to the economy will make a series of rate hikes inevitable. Getting in front of it now, rather than being reactionary and "heavy handed" in a few months actually makes sense, and for once I agree with Yellen, even though she spent the last couple of hours lying out of her ass as to the reasons why.
The markets seem to be embracing Trump and even the bond markets are signaling an acceptance of a rate increase. Only a dumb ass like Mari would insist he was "right" despite the entire marketplace telling him he was wrong.
I guarantee you, under a Hillary administration, with her plan in the works even a 25 basis point increase in rates would have triggered a thousand point sell off, the last time Yellen even hinted at a hike the market sold off several hundred points in reaction to just the rumor it was going to happen and to give Obama/Clinton political cover Yellen quickly backed off the idea of a hike.
Now speaking of weasels, why don't you go back to the GD board and apologize to the guy who asked about the "providers with something to hide" board. as it was you who was the dumbass, not him.
Oh, well, I've done that too but perhaps with less arrogance. Never mind, I accept your total and complete capitulation.
I figure the entire board should here about how you just deleted your own post in a feeble attempt to destroy the evidence about not only making an incredibly stupid post, but calling out another poster for being "dense" when it was you who had it all wrong.
Don't worry, there were plenty of witnesses who saw what you posted and are now laughing their asses off at your feeble attempt to save face.
To grasp what she's talking about. She's actually very intelligent and well informed. That said, the Fed is very conservative. Trickle down economics has never worked and nobody really expects Trumps version will work either. Trickle down has lead to every economic disaster since the Great Depression, which is to say since Reagan tried it. It will be a cash grab for the billionaire class for two years, then the Dems will take back congress. It's always happened this way.
I think the Fed will probably raise rates once or twice in the next three quarters and then wait and see what the mortgage and finance industry and the market does. This is how the adults will deal with Trump.
The fed is not setting rates, as usual of late. The fed is simply being reactionary as usual and has no choice but to follow rates up. The only thing I agree about what Yellen said, but which I have a hard time believing is that they will be "gentle" about it.
You say once or twice in the next three quarters, I say more than that. Want to bet?
I'll put my understanding as to how the markets work over yours anytime.
But yes you should absolutely put your understanding of how the market works over
mine as I do with yours. Making bets with internet strangers is just whole cloth. You certainly must be smart enough to know that stock market performance is not the only thing the Fed considers in bank rate determinations, right?
First off, I said "Markets" plural not "Market" singular, an educated and erudite gentleman such as yourself should realize that besides the many equities markets, there are also bond markets, commodity markets, currency markets, etc etc etc.
As for betting with internet strangers, I have made several bets here, with mixed results of course. I have lost a couple of bets, which I paid. I have won several bets, only one of which I had any problems collecting, and as for the little wager I propose between us, I doubt seriously that it would be large enough to keep me up at night if you were to follow Cheesy's lead and decide to welsh on it.
That said, do you have the courage of your convictions to make a wager? If you are so sure, there is no shame, simply say so and I will let you off the hook. No harm, no foul.
But for arguments sake, over the next three fiscal quarters, say 270 days, the FOMC will meet to discuss target rates about 5 or 6 times. It meets every 7-8 weeks or so usually. Are you saying that on each of those occasions it will raise its target rate? You may as well just send me the money now because that would be unheard of in today's economy.
The other problem is the FOMC does not actually determine what interest rate banks can charge each other for lending money. That would be an unconstitutional infringement on the right to contract. What the FOMC does is "suggest" if you will what that rate should be. Banks can negotiate whatever they want amongst themselves and do so all the time. When the FOMC target rate is zero, as it has been for the longest time, do you think banks are actually not charging interest to each other?
So our discussion is really all academic. Not anything I would bet on. Besides, what you are doing is really bully betting which is childish and below your reputation as I understand it.
As for betting with internet strangers, I have made several bets here, with mixed results of course. I have lost a couple of bets, which I paid. I have won several bets, only one of which I had any problems collecting, and as for the little wager I propose between us, I doubt seriously that it would be large enough to keep me up at night if you were to follow Cheesy's lead and decide to welsh on it.
That said, do you have the courage of your convictions to make a wager? If you are so sure, there is no shame, simply say so and I will let you off the hook. No harm, no foul.
and at each meeting they can either raise, lower or leave rates alone. They can also raise/lower by 25 or 50 basis points, or more I suppose but even 50 points is a SERIOUS move.
You claimed first off that I needed "some backround in finance and economics" and further said "I think the Fed will probably raise rates once or twice in the next three quarters" I am simply asking just how confident you are about your words?
There is nothing academic about our bet. if the fed raises once or twice in the next 270 days, you win. If they raise three or more times, I win. What's so hard about that?
I think you also need some tutoring in math as well. Three hikes in nine months is hardly unheard of, and is most definitely NOT raising rates each and every meeting. I have confidence in what I said. I guess you don't have quite as much confidence as you claim to.
Reagan is considered one of our greatest presidents ever (I have produced the links on several occasions) and trickle down produced 20 million high paying jobs after the brutal Carter years.
In fact he was SO popular he won 49 states in 1984. Yeah, some disaster!
Crack a book son. I'd suggest a history book! LOL
Reaganomics was a complete disaster and is the one thing that tainted his presidency. He is known as a great president because of his diplomatic successes. And yes, a lot of jobs were created during Reagans presidency. Not as many as Bill Clinton. Not as many as Barack Obama, but close. Do you know why?
He only looked good in contrast to Carter, who was pretty damn feckless. But Reagan was the one who started the huge budget deficits, went senile during his second term and sat benignly while Poindexter and North ran a criminal arms smuggling ring out of the West Wing.
I do give him credit for his overtures toward Gorbachev, so he wasn't a total failure
Strike that. Lets use MY lifetime as you might pick FDR! LOL
Truman, Eisenhower, Obama for starters. I'd include Bush, Sr., just because of how he handled the first Iraq war, but he was useless on the economy. Clinton was very good but squandered his second term because he couldn't keep his bent dick in his pants.
Honestly, NONE of them deserves the term great. To me, the only truly great Presidents were Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln and both Roosevelts.
Notice I didn't mention Kennedy.
But I gag at Reagan worship and the concept that he and Bush, Sr., brought down the USSR. What a simplistic idea! The USSR was brought down by the weight of a failed economic system, the policy of containment followed by every President since Truman and by Charlie Wilson getting Stingers to the Taliban. Of course, that led to Al Quaeda, but never mind.
And to think i used to look up to you when I was little! ROFLMAO!!!!