Per NY Times/Siena:
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Arizona Kamala +4 (Now leads there in the aggregate of the polls)
NC Kamala +2 (she has wiped out Trumps large lead over Joe completely)
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Kamala now with 297 electoral votes. And we haven't even had our convention yet.

Where are you getting Harris 297?

Placing AZ and NC in her column gives her 297.

There’s still the convention, then the debate(s)… and of course there’ll be an October surprise,.
Polling now just gives me alittle bit more of an ideal of what’s going on.
But as it is now, it sure looks better then a few months ago  
But there’s time

The polling is what the polling is. The betting odds have changed drastically. No one is saying this means she is a lock. But I like our chances much better than theirs.

He’s losing now so suddenly the polls are rigged. Oh ok. Lol.

Figured.

He lives on a troll farm outside Moscow.

Which is that Wanker only believes those polls that tell him what he wants to hear. He doubts the methodology of any whose results displease him.

He never questions a poll that has Trump in the lead. He is a total Trump sycophant. Facts aren't allowed in that world.

How much do you need to see he is trolling and/or completely idiotic re: this topic? He doesn't understand weighting, he thinks he found a flaw in the best polling company in the land, he thought RFK Jr was leading in many states and he has NJ and VA currently in Trumps column. lol.
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I have to ask. Are you THIS stupid or is Willy paying you? lol.

Willy, look up the term "non sequitur" when you get a chance.

Just a terminology note, there is a distinction between over sampling and over representation. Over sampling is not bad if it means total of responses collected. Over representation is bad if the response rate is not scaled to reflect the actual population.
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The trick is to get a representative sample of people. If you accidentally poll too many Republicans your poll will skew.  But how do you know what percentage are Republicans.  That's just another gray area in trying to count correctly.
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So when they report margin of error, are they including the margin of error in estimating D/R/I split?

He thinks the predicted voting percentages should match the population of registered voters per party. He doesn't understand weighting, he doesn't understand historical voting patterns and he doesn't include voter enthusiasm. The only thing he said that was correct is that he isn't an expert in the field. lol.
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Props to you though for taking him on. CKS is too scared to do so, per usual.

Unlike you I stick to discussing ideas and not constant ad hominem. My comment was about general terminology. I disavow any association of my comments with your personal attacks.

Good lord Lester, calm down. Odd you would say that when your hero Trump cant make it through an hour without using an ad hominem. Hypocrite much?

You are a troll that has admitted you don't know what you are talking about and proven you have no clue. You never question ANY polls with Trump leading. You are a partisan hack.

Polymarket has swung from Kamala ahead to tied.

How many of his posts start with, "I'm not sure where I read this," or "I don't remember who said it," or some facsimile of that? He could google it and see if he's even right. But he doesn't care enough to even try.
What's worse than a troll?
A lazy troll.

She leads him by 1 there and by 6 on average. If you are going to cherry pick at least find one where he is leading. Stop being a sycophant Lester.

Did you know he knows more about polling than the best polling company in America? lol. And yet he has admitted he doesn't understand polling, with his numerous factually inaccurate and moronic posts about it over the last few months proving that.
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The real mystery though is CKS sucking up to him. I cant figure that one out yet. I think CKS has just given up on facts as that is what Trumpers tend to do.

Since you used the term “best polling company in America”  
How about you tell us what is the best polling company in  
America?

50/50 in the battleground states. Could be shaping up to be a razor close election

Good lord Willy. Is your memory THAT bad????

With our convention this week. But yes, it's very close.

7 days ago, Trump was down 6 on Polymarket.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/harris-odds-surge-52-polymarket-103849241.html

Monday morning, Kamala back up to 51%. Will be interesting to see how news coverage of the convention impacts the betting.

That's quite a swing in five days when Kamala was 54 to 44.
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Nevertheless I don't think the Polymarket is meaningful.
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It's just reactive. As I understand it, you can buy and sell. So it isn't focused on long term odds.

The Polymarket has swung nine points to a +5 for Trump since the start of the DNC.  Weird.