Politics and Religion

WRONG.
RespectfulRobert 493 reads
posted
1 / 32

Per NY Times/Siena:
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Arizona Kamala +4 (Now leads there in the aggregate of the polls)
NC Kamala +2 (she has wiped out Trumps large lead over Joe completely)
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Kamala now with 297 electoral votes. And we haven't even had our convention yet.

cks175 51 Reviews 42 reads
posted
2 / 32

Where are you getting Harris 297?

Here’s the results from all the states The NY Times polled:
NEW battleground state polls from NYTimes/Siena (A+)

Arizona
🟦 Kamala Harris 50% (+5)
🟥 Donald Trump 45%

North Carolina
🟦 Kamala Harris 49% (+2)
🟥 Donald Trump 47%

Nevada
🟦 Kamala Harris 47%
🟥 Donald Trump 48% (+1)

Georgia
🟦 Kamala Harris 46%
🟥 Donald Trump 50% (+4)

Aug 8-15 | 2,670 LV | MoE +/- 4.2-4.4 pts

RespectfulRobert 38 reads
posted
3 / 32

Placing AZ and NC in her column gives her 297.

Hpygolky 233 Reviews 49 reads
posted
4 / 32

There’s still the convention, then the debate(s)… and of course there’ll be an October surprise,.
Polling now just gives me alittle bit more of an ideal of what’s going on.
But as it is now, it sure looks better then a few months ago  
But there’s time

RespectfulRobert 41 reads
posted
5 / 32

The polling is what the polling is. The betting odds have changed drastically. No one is saying this means she is a lock. But I like our chances much better than theirs.

RespectfulRobert 45 reads
posted
6 / 32

He’s losing now so suddenly the polls are rigged. Oh ok. Lol.

inicky46 61 Reviews 33 reads
posted
9 / 32

He lives on a troll farm outside Moscow.

inicky46 61 Reviews 37 reads
posted
11 / 32

Which is that Wanker only believes those polls that tell him what he wants to hear. He doubts the methodology of any whose results displease him.

RespectfulRobert 44 reads
posted
12 / 32

He never questions a poll that has Trump in the lead. He is a total Trump sycophant. Facts aren't allowed in that world.

cks175 51 Reviews 31 reads
posted
13 / 32

If I do find them I will report it here
Appreciate you keep us posted on your research. Too many here happy to gleefully post poll results with absolutely zero analysis.

RespectfulRobert 47 reads
posted
14 / 32

How much do you need to see he is trolling and/or completely idiotic re: this topic? He doesn't understand weighting, he thinks he found a flaw in the best polling company in the land, he thought RFK Jr was leading in many states and he has NJ and VA currently in Trumps column. lol.
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I have to ask. Are you THIS stupid or is Willy paying you? lol.

RespectfulRobert 41 reads
posted
15 / 32

Willy, look up the term "non sequitur" when you get a chance.

lester_prairie 12 Reviews 44 reads
posted
16 / 32

Just a terminology note, there is a distinction between over sampling and over representation. Over sampling is not bad if it means total of responses collected. Over representation is bad if the response rate is not scaled to reflect the actual population.
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The trick is to get a representative sample of people. If you accidentally poll too many Republicans your poll will skew.  But how do you know what percentage are Republicans.  That's just another gray area in trying to count correctly.
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So when they report margin of error, are they including the margin of error in estimating D/R/I split?

RespectfulRobert 37 reads
posted
17 / 32

He thinks the predicted voting percentages should match the population of registered voters per party. He doesn't understand weighting, he doesn't understand historical voting patterns and he doesn't include voter enthusiasm. The only thing he said that was correct is that he isn't an expert in the field. lol.
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Props to you though for taking him on. CKS is too scared to do so, per usual.

lester_prairie 12 Reviews 41 reads
posted
18 / 32

Unlike you I stick to discussing ideas and not constant ad hominem. My comment was about general terminology. I disavow any association of my comments with your personal attacks.

RespectfulRobert 49 reads
posted
19 / 32

Good lord Lester, calm down. Odd you would say that when your hero Trump cant make it through an hour without using an ad hominem. Hypocrite much?

RespectfulRobert 51 reads
posted
20 / 32

You are a troll that has admitted you don't know what you are talking about and proven you have no clue. You never question ANY polls with Trump leading. You are a partisan hack.

lester_prairie 12 Reviews 52 reads
posted
21 / 32

Polymarket has swung from Kamala ahead to tied.

inicky46 61 Reviews 44 reads
posted
22 / 32

How many of his posts start with, "I'm not sure where I read this," or "I don't remember who said it," or some facsimile of that? He could google it and see if he's even right. But he doesn't care enough to even try.
What's worse than a troll?
A lazy troll.

RespectfulRobert 59 reads
posted
23 / 32

She leads him by 1 there and by 6 on average. If you are going to cherry pick at least find one where he is leading. Stop being a sycophant Lester.

RespectfulRobert 43 reads
posted
24 / 32

Did you know he knows more about polling than the best polling company in America? lol. And yet he has admitted he doesn't understand polling, with his numerous factually inaccurate and moronic posts about it over the last few months proving that.
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The real mystery though is CKS sucking up to him. I cant figure that one out yet. I think CKS has just given up on facts as that is what Trumpers tend to do.

followme 44 reads
posted
25 / 32

Since you used the term “best polling company in America”  
How about you tell us what is the best polling company in  
America?

 
There is no mystery that you suck up to zeel4cocks and several other soy-boy lefties here.

 
Your constantly projecting is not surprising

 
2024 = Trump270+

cks175 51 Reviews 39 reads
posted
26 / 32

50/50 in the battleground states. Could be shaping up to be a razor close election

🚨JUST DROPPED: New poll from @CBS/YouGov shows Trump LEADING Harris in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina and tied in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Battlegrounds
🟦 Harris: 50% [=]
🟥 Trump: 50% [=]

🟪Pennsylvania: tied
🟪Wisconsin: tied
🟦Michigan: Harris +1
🟦Nevada: Harris +2
🟥Arizona: Trump +1
🟥Georgia: Trump +2
🟥North Carolina: Trump +2

• Independents: Trump 50-49%

RespectfulRobert 41 reads
posted
27 / 32

Good lord Willy. Is your memory THAT bad????

RespectfulRobert 47 reads
posted
28 / 32

With our convention this week. But yes, it's very close.

cks175 51 Reviews 50 reads
posted
30 / 32

Monday morning, Kamala back up to 51%. Will be interesting to see how news coverage of the convention impacts the betting.

lester_prairie 12 Reviews 47 reads
posted
31 / 32

That's quite a swing in five days when Kamala was 54 to 44.
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Nevertheless I don't think the Polymarket is meaningful.
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It's just reactive. As I understand it, you can buy and sell. So it isn't focused on long term odds.

lester_prairie 12 Reviews 46 reads
posted
32 / 32

The Polymarket has swung nine points to a +5 for Trump since the start of the DNC.  Weird.

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