Just a terminology note, there is a distinction between over sampling and over representation. Over sampling is not bad if it means total of responses collected. Over representation is bad if the response rate is not scaled to reflect the actual population. . The trick is to get a representative sample of people. If you accidentally poll too many Republicans your poll will skew. But how do you know what percentage are Republicans. That's just another gray area in trying to count correctly. . So when they report margin of error, are they including the margin of error in estimating D/R/I split?
Per NY Times/Siena: . Arizona Kamala +4 (Now leads there in the aggregate of the polls) NC Kamala +2 (she has wiped out Trumps large lead over Joe completely) . Kamala now with 297 electoral votes. And we haven't even had our convention yet.
There’s still the convention, then the debate(s)… and of course there’ll be an October surprise,. Polling now just gives me alittle bit more of an ideal of what’s going on. But as it is now, it sure looks better then a few months ago But there’s time
The polling is what the polling is. The betting odds have changed drastically. No one is saying this means she is a lock. But I like our chances much better than theirs.
That's quite a swing in five days when Kamala was 54 to 44. . Nevertheless I don't think the Polymarket is meaningful. . It's just reactive. As I understand it, you can buy and sell. So it isn't focused on long term odds.
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