I Never really thought Florida was in play because, you know … it’s fucking Florida is Florida. But if this poll is correct or even close this could be game set match Funny was that the VP’s husband had a town hall at the Villages and it was well received so, maybe something is brewing And Poor Desantis must be shitting on his platform boots
Because Trump-backed Gubernatorial Candidate Mark Robinson is now having to deny he called himself a "Black Nazi." He's losing the Governor's race and may drag Trump down with him. If Trump loses NoCa his path to victory is very narrow.
Quote: "A new Florida Atlantic University (FAU) survey shows that the presidential race has remained relatively unchanged since the Democratic National Convention (DNC)." . AtlasIntel and Rasmussen Reports also found the race has been relatively unchanged. Both Atlas and Rassy have Trump ahead by 3 and 2 respectively. FAU has Harris +5. So apparently the only difference is in their Dem/Rep/Ind weightings. . All three of they do agree, however, that other polls showing wild swings are probably just bad polls. The race has been pretty stable.
University of Mary Washington poll for state of Virginia, Harris +1. 756 LV, Sept 3-9. . Biden got +10 in Virginia in 2020. Yikes! (A concurrent WaPo poll had Harris +8)
And it's also clearly an outlier. She is up by 4.5% there on RCP average and by 7% on 538. The only two polls that have some post debate participants, she leads by 8% average.
Just prior to the debate, he had Trump leading her 64-36% re: winning the EC. Damn he soured on Trump fast. No surprise. He doesn't want his legacy tarnished if/when Kamala wins. It's CYA time.
Re: The debate and subsequent polling has really messed with Nate's mind. Just prior to the debate, he had Trump leading her 64-36% re: winning the EC. Damn he soured on Trump fast. No surprise. He doesn't want his legacy tarnished if/when Kamala wins. It's CYA time.
Seriously? Now Nate Silver is putting his thumb on the scale? Is that what your suggesting?
I give the advantage to Harris on that, as she has more money and a better organization for her ground game. Also, the big PAC run by Musk just switched the group in charge of its ground game, never a good thing this close to an election. And the RNC is "led" by Lara Trump, who's a political neophyte.
You know who else might believe the NYTimes polls, PolyMarket bettors. Yesterday PolyMarket was trending in favor of Harris +5. Today she's down to Harris +3.5. Considering how slow that market has moved recently, that appears significant.
While the Minneapolis Star Tribune has Harris +5 overall, they found she has terrible approval numbers with independents. Trump favorable 48, unfavorable 51, -3 net Harris favorable 41, unfavorable 57, -16 net
Could this be it, could Kamala be breaking out and shooting to the moon??? Tune in tomorrow to see if she overcomes her current 5-day rolling average -3.8% deficit.
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