If this keeps up, BHO's chance for a 2nd term markedly improves. Does it automatically re-insure a 2nd term ? no.

However, I will put forth this arbitrary standard : when BHO entered office, unemployment rate was 7.8%  If by Oct., it's at that level or lower, his 2nd term is a lock.

No POTUS since Truman has won 2nd term with unemployment higher than 7.2 %. That's the rate RR was re-elected with in '84.

However, historical precedents have been shattered before, so we'll see.

let me put it this way. Lets suppose unemployment soared to 14% in an Obama second term, A new POTUS was elected in 2016 and by 2020 he had "only brought the unemployment rate down to 9% but the numbers were getting better every month. Don't you think that person would be a shoo in for reelection all other things being equal?

It's not the number that is important, it's the perception of where we are headed, and I will grant that Obama is good at spinning the facts, where I think he loses people is in his habit of ducking responsibility and shifting the blame.

As I see it, the election is still a complete toss up.

The Tea Party & OWS were "fads" borne of the economic dissatisfaction of "the great recession" If the economy starts to improve, watch both movements diminish greatly in power. Polling shows that "silent majority" despises both movements.

Here's another prediction : if economy starts booming , watch a # of TP congressmen lose re-election. Enough for Dems to re-take the House ?
That's dicey.

Historical precedents were meant to be broken. Who ever thought we'd see a Black POTUS in our lifetime ?

As for your post, I agree with much of it. ( which pains me. )

-- Modified on 1/6/2012 6:42:28 AM

As long as runaway Government spending and multi trillion dollar deficits continue, the Tea Party isn't going anywhere.

Any economic recovery without addressing our spiraling debt will be fleeting at best. Eventually we will come to the same crossroads as Greece, but our economy is too large to be bailed out by outside entities. One of these days in the not too distant future, push is going to come to shove. As much as I detest the religious undercurrents of the Tea Party, they are the ones that seem to be most cognizant of this problem.

PW, a q worth answering, doncha' think ?!----

As much as I disagree with the social conservatives on so many issues, the truth is they are the only ones with even half a clue as to how to fix the budget.

The loony left can barely agree to slowing spending growth, much less any actual reductions. I don't care for the Tea Party's algnment with the religious right, but they are the only ones calling for any meaningful cuts in government spending.

The religious right is a very scary group of people and you're damned right I am scared of them bringing back the "good old days" of God Fearing white people running this country. If you have ever seen the look in these inbred motherfuckers eyes when they get the Jesus in them. One or two of them are not scary, but when they number in millions and they are so easily manipulated into fighting holy wars because of some tow thousand year old fairy tale, you are fucking A right that I get scared.

I lived in the South in the "good old days" Try being a nigger or a chink (or a jew) in the south of forty years ago and then get back to me about being scaerd. I was there and I know what these people are capable of.

and had not had religion "crammed down my throat" literally at the point of fearing for my life. I would have an entirely different opinion, but I can't unlive my life and those have been my experiences with the "kind and open minded Christians" in my life.

I am sure your experiences are quite different which is why you are a "tad" more forgiving. lol

We both posted the same article at virtually the same time.  No doubt some of our fellow inhabitants of the Monkey House will think you're posting under two handles from different computers.  lol!  But you missed what was, to me, the most interesting part of the article, so see above.  As a result, I don't think 7.8% is a magic number.  If things are moving in the right direction, no one will care.

Pri -- "However, I will put forth this arbitrary standard : when BHO entered office, unemployment rate was 7.8%  If by Oct., it's at that level or lower, his 2nd term is a lock."

Just what I like. A prognosticator with balls.   LOL

Realizing that it's primarily the religious politicians that have a fucking clue how to fix the buget

NOT that I wish you any harm, unlike your racial demagoguing of "black & brown pawns" & falsely accusing people of pedophilia.

If this board is any indication, you need to clean up your act, though I seriously doubt that you realize that.

Like I said, you need to clean your act up, particularly with your anger management issues. A shrink might help.

That's why I urged you to get over what I consider an irrational fear of the religious right.. unless of course you're worried that you won't have the right sodomize your boyfriend on your wedding night.. maybe tranny boy is concerned about that but I don't think you are

Left and moderate accommodating republicans are flushing the budget down the drain

I'm willing to put up with a little churchiosity if it meansolving the bigger issues

We are going to be greecee  way before we become a theocracy

How the fuck do you think someone who is a "prude" could be as active in this hobby as I am?

I don't give a fuck what you call me but at least make it somewhat close to the truth!!!  Asshole, okay.  Pain in the ass, okay.  Right-wing dipshit, okay.

But prude???? No fucking way . . . .

Okay I can see your point.. or at least where you are coming from..

It's the same thing with me with the whole god thing

If you had  seen the things that I've seen and done the things that I've done over the last 30 some odd years you might understand why I believe what I believe

Experience Is the best teacher

i guarantee you, if "someone" had'nt interceded many moons ago I'd be dead or in jail. yeah, i'm a tad more forgiving..but i also see quite a bit of 'the other side", the side that neithers wants nor gets attention. lotta great people doing a lot of great work

And you have a keyboard and screen to talk shit from behind

As foolish as  you look now it could always be worse

Forget the unemployment, here is why Obama will lose re-election.

Historically, administrations pass legislation that is unpopular early in their terms so memories will fade and hopefully be forgotten by election day.

I don't care how you personally feel, the healthcare legislation passed by the Obama administration was unpopular and they had to pull out all the stops to get it through. If you want to argue it was popular, then you have to explain why the Republicans took back the largest number of seats in the congress in history.

Here is the problem. The US Supreme Court will announce its  ruling on the constitutionality of the law just a few months before the election. This will mean this will become part of the debate and Obama will once again have to try to justify unpopular legislation and it will play heavily in the debates.

How the court rules will not matter. If they kill it, his key accomplishment is gone and it shows he does not understand the constitution. If they uphold it, it will so motivate the Republican base and the undecideds against him that he is gone.

He is history, no matter how you slice it.

I will be shocked if the Court rules against the healthcare bill.  And when they don't, the Dems will ride that victory to an even bigger winning margin.

How I would love to be wrong with my prediction . . . . . . .

And as your friend I feel it my duty to warn you that one of these days you're gonna popoff to the wrong guy and he's gonna feed you a knuckle sandwich.

I'm trying to help, see?

to split 5-4 in favor of any Republican issue.  In this case, it could be a split decision if they throw out the mandate and uphold the rest of the bill.  It then becomes a non issue.  Even so, nothing regates the impact of the economy.