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The more interesting question is what other states might be in the same category as Iowa?
inicky46 61 Reviews 24 reads
posted

One that was mentioned by MSNBC's excellent analyst Steve Kornacki is Wisconsin. It's right next door to Iowa and is demographically very similar.

Hpygolky475 reads

Now wouldn't that be a kick in butt to all those righties...
Des Moines Register poll has her ahead....WFT.
Iowa was NEVER in play, and now lookie here...fellas we got a race. And she never really campaigned there.
Be warned: Trump is a lousy candidate...bring on Haley now,

Related Link: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/shock-poll-shows-harris-with-lead-in-landmark-iowa-surve...

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RespectfulRobert22 reads

The DMR has a very good reputation. I wonder if it a sign of massive late movement towards Kamala or just a deeply flawed poll. I guess we'll find out soon enough but polls like that will keep Trump advisors up at night.

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willywonka4u23 reads

But Virginia is.

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Hpygolky21 reads

Have you notice how many rallies he’s holding there ?
Harris did one so she’s putting the screws to him. Spending all that time there and not on other battleground states. I
Harris is playing Trump

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willywonka4u19 reads

…to add more resources to Virginia. This signals that she knows North Carolina is a lost cause for her campaign.  

 
I just saw video of people lined up around the block waiting to vote in Chicago. You think there’s that kind of enthusiasm for Harris? What if Trump could flip Illinois?

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durran42120 reads

I'm not surebwhere you get your data, but as I have said for weeks, NC is a win for Trump BIGLY! Those people have NOT forgotten Harris' offer. They said ...thanks but no thanks. I think the margin was slim for Trump in 2020 for NC, not this time. Prepare to see record breaking numbers there. You might as well give up your "NC nervous" bit. It ain't happnin'

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willywonka4u40 reads

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Hpygolky21 reads

He’s holding 4 rallies there, up to Election Day. His whole weekend is spent begging voters to vote for him.there.  Ask yourself, why is that? All that time in N.C. 🤔🤔🤔
Lemme me tell you why.. because he knows his campaign is sinking. TFS😂
I’m telling you, Harris is playing him.  
He’s taking his eye off the ball

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coeur-de-lion15 reads

If he gets Pennsylvania, NC and Georgia, he makes 270 without Arizona or Nevada.

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lester_prairie20 reads

The Emerson Iowa poll came out an hour or so before Selzer and they have Trump +10.5.
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Nationally the Morning Consult poll which has been quite favorable to Harris just released their final poll with Harris +2, her worst result yet.  A month ago they had Harris +6.  
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The TIPP tracking poll nationally also just flipped back to Trump +1.
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So between Emerson Iowa poll and national polls, there is no other poll besides Selzer that is seeing a trend toward Harris.  Selzer is an outlier.

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inicky4618 reads

What Fester failed to mention is Selzer is also the Gold Standard among pollsters who has been right almost every time.
Fester is...

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willywonka4u20 reads

While Obama carried the state, Trump easily carried the state in 2016 and 2020.  

 
First, lets look at the polling. In 2016, the polling suggested Trump was only up by +3 in Iowa and one poll had Clinton winning by +1. But come Election Day, Trump carried Iowa by +8.  

 
In 2020, polling suggested Trump and Biden were basically tied, and the last poll of the 2020 cycle done by PPP, had Biden winning Iowa by +1. But again, come Election Day Trump carried the state by +8.

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inicky4621 reads

The Des Moines Register's polls have a history of being spot on. So your citing of other polls is irrelevant.
Apparently, the Trump campaign is in a panic about it.
But, still, Wanker....

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lester_prairie18 reads

Seltzer missed the 2018 government race by 5 points, she had D+3 and it went R+2.

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inicky4620 reads

so he could believe she's wrong. So she's not perfect. So what? She's good enough that most other pollsters consider her the gold standard.

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BigPapasan23 reads

SELZER PREDICTION      ACTUAL RESULT
2022 Senate                    R +12                                R +12
2020 President                R  +7                                 R +8
2020 Senate                     R +4                                 R +7
2018 Governor                D +2                                 R +3
2016 President                R +7                                 R +9
2014 Senate                     R +7                                 R +8
2012 President                D +5                                 D +6

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lester_prairie21 reads

This graph was just posted on X by Elon Musk.
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It shows early voting by voter party registration 2020 vs 2024.
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Republicans have cut into Democrat early voting lead making it easier to overcome on election day, compared to 2020.

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Hpygolky16 reads

Trump won Kansas by 14pts on 2020. So how’s Trump doing against Harris, you say? Trump is Only leading by 5 pts
Not saying Kansas serious play but trump is loosing his mojo and this could spell trouble in MI,WI and PA
Something not bueno is happening to Trump

Related Link: https://kansasreflector.com/2024/10/31/a-stupefying-poll-shows-harris-breathing-down-tr...

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lester_prairie22 reads

Fine print: it's a survey, not a poll.

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Hpygolky19 reads

Gauge a feel .., and the temperature isn’t looking good for trump

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willywonka4u20 reads

And you’re campaigning for the board’s dumbest poster.

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lester_prairie20 reads

Nothing wrong with a survey. But comparing it with a poll is misleading. A poll is going to attempt to be representative of the population. A survey is just whoever responded.

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Hpygolky21 reads

They call, you answer if you want, honestly or not.
Aren’t they kinda the same ?
You could probably get the same sense as to what’s going on

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inicky4626 reads

So presumably the results are not as reflective of the entire voting public.

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Hpygolky22 reads

I have a feeling that this so called “secret” voter is real and is under reported  
Hence, Iowa.

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willywonka4u25 reads

I even saw some lefties on X claiming Harris will win Texas. 😂😂😂. I don’t think we’ll ever see a repeat of Reagan/Mondale, but this election may very well be close to it. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s some shocking blue states that flip red like Maine, New Jersey, Illinois, New Mexico or Oregon. Dem insiders know this. Them thinking Harris has a chance in Iowa is just cope.

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inicky4625 reads

One that was mentioned by MSNBC's excellent analyst Steve Kornacki is Wisconsin. It's right next door to Iowa and is demographically very similar.

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Hpygolky27 reads

Along with Kansas .,, but Ohio is interesting

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inicky4625 reads

Bkiden lost to Trump there in 2020 by around 15 points, but now Trump's lead there is only 5. So who knows? Ohio looks out of reach. I'd settle for Sherrod Brown keeping his seat. If Harris wins she can do it without Ohio but she can't easily govern without the Senate.

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coeur-de-lion20 reads

Kansas was close?  Trump won, 57-40.  He did better against Kamala then he did Biden.

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lester_prairie22 reads

Poll Nov 2-3, 435 LV
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lester_prairie21 reads

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lester_prairie19 reads

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lester_prairie22 reads

I should have said "likely" Dem turnout is down.  The numbers refer to urban and female voters vs rural.  The presumption is this means Dems underperform, but that is only an assumption.

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lester_prairie20 reads

Harris 50.015%, Trump 49.985%
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Yes that is a 0.03 point difference.   That's a false precision.

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willywonka4u24 reads

From the Florida numbers I’m seeing. This is rough back of envelope stuff, so keep that in mind.  

In 2020, Trump won Florida by 4%, or 300,000 votes. Each candidate got 5+ million votes and some change. This suggests 75,000 votes = 1%. Right now Republicans have a million vote advantage. 4 million GOP, 3 million Dems. This translates approximately into Trump having a 13% lead. Nate Silver predicted 7%.

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USGrantlover18 reads

tRump won IA by what, 13%? The “gold standard” indeed as one knowledgeable poster opined!

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