So here's this month's poll map. If you don't care to read through my rambling, Trump wins with 280. But that I don't think is the main story here. Keep in mind I'm just using 538.  

 
One of the most frustrating things I've found is that polling has been extremely selective. Now, given how expensive it is to conduct polls, I suppose I can understand why no one has polled Alabama recently. But things are worse than you'd expect, especially since we've had a change in candidates. I'd like to go through some of the polling, and I'll start with the swing states, west to east.  

 
Nevada: Most recent polls have been 8/2, 8/3, and 8/8. BSG, Redfield & Wilton, and Trafalgar respectively. BSG and Trafalgar has Trump up 3-5. Redfield and Wilton has Harris and Trump tied.  

 
Arizona: Polling on the 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 8th. Same pollsters as Nevada, except HighGround did the poll on the 5th. All the polls have Harris winning except Trafalgar, which has Trump up by 1.  

 
Minnesota: Just one recent poll, Harris up by 5

 
Wisconsin: 6 recent polls from this month. 6 of them. The most recent one, Bullfinch Group has Harris up by 9. Bullfinch conducted several recent polls, and the polling over sampled women by 4% and strong Democrats by 2%.  

 
Michigan: Same story as Wisconsin, Harris up by 6. That was Bullfinch.  

 
Virginia: Now here is where things get odd. Most recent Virginia polling? Last July. Yep, no one is polling Virginia. At least none of them are getting published on 538. And oddly, despite that most polling prediction sites have Virginia in the blue column, the most recent polls have Trump winning Virginia. Does that seem odd to anyone?

 
North Carolina: The state to Virginia's south has 5 recent polls in August. BSG has Harris winning, Redfield and Wilton has Trump winning, as does Trafalgar, and YouGov Blue has the race at even. I think I should note that there's been some criticism of the YouGov Blue poll. It had a local race with the Dem up 10 points when none of the others did.  

 
So I'm running short on time, but there's a few other odd things to point out. The map has Trump winning New Jersey. This is because the last poll for New Jersey was all the way back in JUNE. The most recent 538 polling for Connecticut is from LAST APRIL, and that's only because RFK paid for the polling. No other polls exist for Connecticut for this entire election season on 538. NONE.  

 
Well, that's Connecticut. Of course it'll go blue. Maybe. But the fact of the matter is most of the states on this map is still Trump vs Biden. Now you may think, what does it matter. We know which way Missouri and Oregon will go. But is that the case for all these states? As my home state of Virginia demonstrates, how can we be sure?

 
Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Utah, Vermont and Wyoming were all last polled in April. Many others haven't been polled since Biden was still in the race. Now I don't think anyone is going to expect any surprises with these states. But if we knew if the lead either party has in these states have grown or declined, then we could see has the race is evolving. Unfortunately, that data just ain't there. Not on 538 anyway.

Interesting perspective. Worth the wait!

CKS swallows Willy's bullshit again. Film at 11. To have NJ and Virginia in Trump's column is sheer lunacy. Not one well known political prediction group has either state in Trumps column. Not Cook, not RCP, not 538.  
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And per all the independent polling in August, Kamala leads in Arizona.  
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That would give her 296 Electoral Votes.
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Not sure who the biggest fool is Willy for putting up another bogus map or CKS for not lifting a finger to research any of his nonsense and yet fawning all over this boards biggest troll.

Most recent poll goes. Predictions aren’t polls. Polls are data. Predictions are not. Like I said we have a poverty of data. No recent polls for New Jersey or Virginia.  

 
I would like to offer a hypothesis as to why. No polling has happened in Virginia because Virginia’s governor has made sure the election here will be free from tampering.  

 
Polling putting Harris in the lead when they over sample women are fine because it gives Dems plausible deniability when they steal the election in those states.

New YouGov Economist poll. It’s a national poll. It has Harris up by +2. But look at how much they over sampled Democrats.

Oh ok. lol. Willy with the drastic swing in the race towards Kamala, literally no one thinks NJ or VA is in play at this point. The only reason you did so was to get Trump over the 270 mark. You are a troll so I expected this from you but cks lapping up your pablum was hysterical but not shocking.

So another nation poll. This time from Activote. Has Harris +4. But it’s using weighted and unweighted percentages. Why? Because it’s an online poll, which are horrifically unreliable. To try to force them to be more reliable they weight their results with known demographics from the census bureau. Does that make them accurate? Well, no. This is what Pew had to say on the subject.  

 
From the link:

 
“But are they sufficient for reducing selection bias6 in online opt-in surveys? Two studies that compared weighted and unweighted estimates from online opt-in samples found that in many instances, demographic weighting only minimally reduced bias, and in some cases actually made bias worse.”

 
Be aware of techy sounding polling places. If you can check to see if they’re online polls. Maybe one day we’ll get online polling to work right, but as far as I know, the technology ain’t there yet.  

 
http://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2018/01/26/how-different-weighting-methods-work/

Like I said, I don’t think Trump will win NJ. But Virginia could easily go red. I’ve also been illustrating that much of Kamala’s surge is an illusion. Her leap forward in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is based on that same poll that over sampled women by 4%. She doesn’t have any of those states locked down. She certainly doesn’t have Virginia locked down if there’s no polling there at all.

And no one on the left has said or implied anything of the kind.
So stup suggesting we are.
It doesn't help your cred.
Little would.

Warning link is a pdf.

of the pollsters, and many of the new ones that are boosting Harris have no past history of their margin of error over a long haul.  

Biden won NJ by 16% in 2020. It is a BLUE state, Willy. With her surge and lead in national polling, as well as her lead in PA, rest assured Trump is NOT ahead in NJ as it is bluer than PA. MUCH bluer. I don't need recent polling in NJ to know she is likely ahead, and most likely well ahead, and neither do the people, AGAIN, at 538, RCP and TCR who all have NJ going Democratic.  
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Regarding VA, the NY Times/Siena poll had Harris up by 4 in mid July, which was BEFORE her big surge so what does that tell you about where the race stands there now? Biden beat Trump by 10% there in 2020. I do not think VA is in play and neither do Republican strategists.  
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Could things changes? Of course but to have those 2 states in Trumps column now is utterly delusional.

I can't wait.

END OF MESSAGE

Like I said, part of the point of this exercise is to pair the polls with reality. This is why every map has the rule of the most recent poll available.

 
Earlier today I saw an article in Newsweek that said Harris could beat Trump in Florida. It linked to a poll and that poll was Trump vs BIDEN. When it comes to polls check what you read.

 
Funny you should mention RCP. Their no toss ups map has Trump winning with 287.

You made it up bc you have no idea what you are talking about. As usual.

And RCP is showing Kamala leading in PA giving her the overall EV lead. Pay attention.

RCP runs averages and Trump is in the lead in PA. The most recent Quinnipiac poll has Harris +3, but they over sampled Democrats.