Polymarket results are whatever bettors in the aggregate decide. I don't see how market ownership affects that. People are trying to make money. You don't do that by picking who you want to win. You do your damn best to pick who you THINK will win. Otherwise you are just throwing your money away.
Brand new CNN polls:
.
Arizona: Trump +5
Nevada: Harris +1
Pennsylvania: Tied at 47
Wisconsin: Harris + 6
Michigan: Harris +5
Georgia: Harris +1
.
CNN has her at 273 EVs even without PA. RCP has upped her total to 273. 538 has her at 292.
Donald Trump appears to be gaining serious momentum in 10 key battleground states, according to a new poll for the Express US.
.
Data from the Democracy Institute shows the Republican Presidential hopeful is favored by five percentage point lead over Kamala Harris - at 50 percent to 45 percent.
.
The poll asked 1,000 likely voters who would be their pick in the battlegrounds of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
.
Nationally, the Democracy Institute data suggests Trump is ahead nationally with 49 percent to Harris's 46 percent.
So now it's the "Democracy Institute" Lester? And they don't even break it down by state! I wonder why? lol. You go with that if that makes you feel better Lester but Kamala is an electoral nightmare for Trump at this moment.
Lester "The Goal Post Mover" Prairie. lol.
.
It wasnt that long ago that Lester, Willy, CKS, etc were all about 538 and the RCP, but here comes Lester, banishing them off the island for an organization no one has heard of, while using very vague "battleground state" polls that don't single out any battleground states! lol.
.
Nothing is set in stone of course, but Kamala has him scared to his core. She has the momentum and if she wins or draws that debate next week, I think Trump will likely be toast. We'll see about all that but watching Lester's meltdown has been quite telling.
You shot 538 and the RCP, when once you and your brethren used to tout them regularly when Trump was leading in both.
Could you link to or quote from some of those posts where I "tout regularly" RCP and 538.
.
I've mentioned many polling results from many different pollsters.
.
I do favor Rasmussen Reports and Trafalgar based on past accuracy, at least for national polls (they were in the top three for accuracy in 2020.)
.
Speaking of aggregators like RCP, in this changing environment they lag due to averaging polls that can be weeks old.
.
Anyhow, I await your backing up your claim that in the past I "touted regularly" RCP and 538. Since you did call me a liar about it, you should back up your allegation.
Here is you responding to CKS who was talking about his confidence in RCP. And if you notice, I said "you and your brethren." I never once saw you take on your fellow Rs when they mentioned Trump was ahead at 538 or RCP.
.
But now, suddenly, and out of the blue, you divert to the "Democracy Institute" bc 538 and the RCP are no longer in your favor. You are a hypocrite Lester but you aren't alone. CKS has run away from the RCP too, now that Kamala leads there.
"Pennsylvania remains key. Trump could lose AZ and NV and still win if he gets PA (and holds the other states he won in 2020.) But he does need one of WI, MI or PA in most other scenarios."
.
It doesn't mention RCP or "regularly tout" it.
You were replying to someone who JUST mentioned the RCP! I guess you missed that? And I never once saw you challenge any R who ever did. Just own it and stop being such a weasel.
Walz is going down.
dare we hope for Virginia to follow? Lol
He just ate Willy's poop!
Lester already posted the full quote that Robert presented as “proof” he “regularly touts RCP and 538”. The problem is that the quote doesn’t back up Robert’s bullshit claim. If Robert had specified just me as touting RCP, he could do so without lying. But anyone who reads and then HONESTLY analyzes Lester’s posts know that he is not a post who regularly touts RCP and 538.
He argues in bad faith. Hard to respect him because of that.
I argue in bad faith? When CNN, FOX, 538 and the RCP all turned on Trump re: the polling you then ran to the Democracy Institute! Talk about bad faith! You are its king! lol.
There’s just something about polling that drives him crazy. I’m kinda afraid what he might do if Trump wins. Maybe run around outside naked screaming Harris is up 5 points in Wisconsin.
Even though he never had more than 15-17 % of the vote. lol And NONE of your R buddies took you on over it. If you have a problem with the polling Willy, take it up with CNN, the RCP and 538 who ALL have her OVER 270 EVs right now. Sleep tight! lol.
I didnt JUST mention Lester now did I? I also mentioned you and others. Numerous times YOU have touted the RCP and in the example I showed Lester glommed on to what YOU were saying.
.
So why dont YOU address why you ran from the RCP when you posted it about it on numerous occasions and Lester never had the honestly to push back on any of it. But now, suddenly, when Kamala takes the lead there, you ran away and Lester tries his best to push back on it. Show me where he EVER pushed back on YOU using it.
.
Explain please? Try not to run away again s that is your thing lately.
You get caught lying about Lester’s posting history and then try to turn the bad faith argument back on me? Hilarious.
“cks175 ran away from RCP”
Robert seems intelligent enough to construct a clever gaslight, but not so intelligent that he’s able to back it up. You can’t find one post where I discounted the reliability of either RCP or 538. They are obviously acceptable data points for a debate about election probabilities and I NEVER suggested they weren’t.
Getting back to you shitting your pants about the Democracy Institute poll, introducing a counterpoint or alternative data point into an argument isn’t “running away” from an argument, it’s basic Debate 101. When I posted RCP results favoring Trump, you counterpointed that Harris had momentum. Lester makes a counterpoint to your RCP post, and suddenly he’s running away from his regular (nonexistent) “touts” of RCP. The hypocrisy is obvious.
....is that as time has gone on, more and more polls seem to be contradictory. At first, many of the polls that had Harris up could be explained by bad methods. But now everything seems to be all over the place. It's also harder to gauge things, as the number of polls has increased.
Some of the ads for my local races have sounded deranged. "Project 2025, abortion, Trump dictator". The ads are now not even saying things in complete sentences. At least for the Dems. I'm really not seeing many GOP ads. As much as TV ads irritate people I wonder if people are rethinking using them.
One interesting thing is that Trump has been going on many, many podcasts. These podcasts reach far more people than cable news does these days, particularly among young people. The after cable news viewer is now 60 and older, regardless of whether it's Fox, CNN or MSPMS.
Technology presents another thing worth thinking about. In the past when everyone had landlines, polling was pretty easy to do randomly. But with the advent of cell phones, and how often people change them, it may be harder to get random results. People who don't change their cell phones as often may be older people who are not as technologically skilled, and it may skew more towards older people.
And, of course, there may be pollsters who intentionally skew poll results for their own purposes. I think everyone remembers the 2016 fiasco where every pollster said Hilary had a 99.9% chance of winning, and they turned out to be wrong. The suspicion has always been that this was done on purpose to demoralize Trump voters and keep more of them from the polls. The problem is that accuracy of information is vital for campaigns. If you're told you have a 30% lead in say Rhode Island, and you're really behind by 5%, then you would have been better off knowing the truth so you could put more campaign resources into the state.
Which leads us to the Time Traveling Money Printer hypothesis. Bret Weinstein proposed this idea some time back to help explain why the news media are such awful and horrible liars. The idea is that presenting truthful news puts everyone at a level playing field. And if you're rich and powerful, the last thing you want is a level playing field. So you turn the news into unreliable garbage so that you can pay a premium from insiders to tell you the truth in secret.
If Weinstein's hypothesis is true, then we can gauge how the race is going by looking at the behavior of the Harris campaign. Are they trying to shore up support in swing states that would take them to victory, or trying to shore up support in what would otherwise be solid blue states? Are they campaigning like they're winning, or are they campaigning like they're losing? Are they trying more lawfare or campaigning? These are tells. I'm not making a claim for either, I'm just saying that's something to pay attention to.
Another thing to watch is to see what Speaker Johnson does with the CR. Many Republicans want to attach the SAVE Act to the CR. This would force Democrats to vote for keeping the government open and voting for proof of citizenship to vote, or force Democrats to shut down the government to allow illegals to vote. Keep in mind, Oct 1st is the start of the new fiscal year.
As a small anecdote, I spent a lot of time driving all around northern VA this last weekend, and I saw somewhere between 1-2 dozen Trump signs. I only saw 2 Harris signs.
You'd have to take each poll method on a case by case basis. Some weigh for party affiliation based on past elections. Some don't weigh at all. Some try to determine current party affiliation and then weigh response rates. You're going to get different offsets which in a close election will have a candidate winning in some polls and losing in others.
I'm not saying there aren't dishonest pollsters. But they tend to be tied to big buck outfits, like newspapers and broadcasters. Independents have to have a good track record to remain in biz.
the phenomenon that began in 2016 of the "shy Trump voter." It's why he won when the polls had him 6 points behind Hillary. The left has continued to demonize Trump and so this pattern of hidden Trump votes will emerge again on election day. The result you can read into this is that if the polls have Trump at minus one or two, he is actually ahead. The internal polls of the Harris campaign knows this, and that's why they are shitting themselves while putting on a stoic face for the public.
That Peter Thiel, a Trump MAGA donor has invested more then 70M to that company and that he mentored and funded JD Vance run for senate.
Thiel along with Don Jr pushed for the JD pick as VP,. So in essence, Trump sold the VP pick.
And in a side note, Thiel is gay, not that there’s anything wrong with it and JD is.., ya know, weird….. jus sayin what odd bedfellows 😂😂
Polymarket results are whatever bettors in the aggregate decide. I don't see how market ownership affects that. People are trying to make money. You don't do that by picking who you want to win. You do your damn best to pick who you THINK will win. Otherwise you are just throwing your money away.
But on an election months out.. ??? Really now. Who’s betting on that??
It's not months out, though, as far as payouts. You can buy and sell all the time. Just like stock markets. You can make money in either direction. Buy and hold is just one strategy.
.
I only look at PolyMarket as a reflection of mood. I don't think it is particularly accurate as a predictor of the final outcome. It's must a million people making guesses.
Trump looks like he's bleeding one point a week
Week ending
8/7 trump up 5
8/14 trump up 4
8/21 trump up 3
8/28 trump up 2...
see a trend here??
Don't look at July, its worse
Why do you imply Rasmussen is unreliable? In both 2016 and 2020 he had Trump losing the popular vote -- and his numbers were well within the margin of error. If Rasmussen had Trump winning the popular vote in 2016 and 2020 he wouldn't be the good pollster he is.
Ramsussen now today has Trump only +1. The idea that he is in the tank for Trump has no historical justification. In 2016 and 2020 he had Trump correctly losing the popular vote.
Rasmussen has long been established as a right wing outfit. You cherry pick polymarket and Hpy exposed that today. Why not try and be honest? You look foolish as you run to right wingers to make your case. I could have just used CNN as I am sure you think they are the "liberal media" but I also added RCP and 538 to show her at 270+ EVs currently. See the difference? You can do better.
I follow Trafalgar and Rasmussen Reports. They both did well in 2020. This is the 538 rating of pollsters.
You need to keep up Lester.
Of course this week trump is up by 1. Next week it'll hold at 1 or it'll be even.
And sorry to say, that on this election, its really a do or die for trump...they're kinda in the tank for trump.
I do recall of what Michael Cohen said in the hush money trail is that he would sometimes work on manipulating the polls to swing toward trump, per trumps request.