Politics and Religion

Re: Record broken
coeur-de-lion 400 Reviews 366 reads
posted
1 / 17

32 minutes into the caucuses.   Word from the white house is that Biden just soiled himself.  Lol

inicky46 61 Reviews 109 reads
posted
2 / 17

As for Biden soiling himself, he does that every night anyway.
Also, what you missed is Biden WANTS to run against Trump because Trump is the only Republican candidate Biden has a prayer of beating. Do you honestly not get that?

coeur-de-lion 400 Reviews 96 reads
posted
3 / 17

Biden has a prayer of beating Trump after a debate?   It's more likely that at the DNC convention, Biden will be dumped by the Dems and someone else will be he nominee.  Even Axelrod is hinting at this.  

lester_prairie 12 Reviews 103 reads
posted
4 / 17

Trump got the highest vote count (in unfavorable weather too), the largest spread, and greatest percentage of the vote, winning all 99 counties -- in contested Iowa GOP presidential caucus history.
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Vivek drops out, endorses and will campaign with Trump (he's no doubt seeking an administration job.)
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Haley comes in third and has declared war on Iowa.

lester_prairie 12 Reviews 109 reads
posted
5 / 17

If Biden is still in it, there will be no debate.  Biden will say he will not debate insurrectionists.

impposter 49 Reviews 110 reads
posted
6 / 17

"(in unfavorable weather too)" - I haven't read any expert opinions yet, but my opinion is that unfavorable weather *favored Trump* substantially. Not the win, per se, but by exaggeration of the per centages.  I'll help you see it with some numbers. I think that T supporters are the most rabid and a high percentage will head to the polls naked if it will get them on TV or TikTok. I think that DeS, NH, and V voters are less committed in the circumstance ("T will win anyway. Why bother.") and more likely to stay home.  
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You can pick your own numbers and per centages. I approxomate that 90% of T supporters turned out 80% of DeS and 80% of NH supporters showed up and 70% of V supporters showed up.  You can scale my "total supporters" by any factor you like. "510" can be "5,100", "51,000" or any # as long the others are scaled the same. 90% of 510 is 459 who voters turn out; 80% of 210 is 168; etc..  
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Let's say that in good weather or full turnout, it's  
Full:   T 510, DeS 210 NH 190, V 77  number of fair weather voters but  
Orig:  T 51.6% DeS 21.2% NH 19.2% V 7.8% per centage of voters if they all turnout
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Then: T 90% DeS 80% NH 80%  V 70% PER CENTAGE TURNOUT for each candidate    
Then: T  459 DeS 168  NH  152 V 54 actual foul weather voters
Then:  T 55.1% DeS 20.1% NH 18.2% V 6.4% PER CENTAGE OF TOTAL VOTES
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If good weather would have equalized turnout to 100%, then T's original and final per centage would have been 51.6. As the number of voters drops unequally, T's margin of victory goes up, to 55.1%.
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My "demo" numbers don't match the actual numbers. I should have started with the actual turnouts and per centages and worked backwards, but I didn't.  I was just trying to give a short arithmetic lesson about what happens when the weather affects voter turnout unequally.

Posted By: lester_prairie
Re: Record broken
Trump got the highest vote count (in unfavorable weather too), the largest spread, and greatest percentage of the vote, winning all 99 counties -- in contested Iowa GOP presidential caucus history.  
 .  
 Vivek drops out, endorses and will campaign with Trump (he's no doubt seeking an administration job.)  
 .  
 Haley comes in third and has declared war on Iowa.

LostSon 43 Reviews 99 reads
posted
7 / 17

Most of this country IS SICK IF YOUR SHIT!!!

People hate being broke…

People hate that our leadership is full of shit…

People hate that we are a laughing stock on the world stage…

And all your gaslighting from the lame stream media is being seen through.  

Your not winning on the issues  

Your only hope is to steal it again

lester_prairie 12 Reviews 115 reads
posted
8 / 17

Update, looks like Trump only won 98 of 99 counties. Haley won one county by 1 vote -- Trump is finished!!!

LostSon 43 Reviews 101 reads
posted
9 / 17

Posted By: inicky46
Re: The polls were right this time.
As for Biden soiling himself, he does that every night anyway.  
 Also, what you missed is Biden WANTS to run against Trump because Trump is the only Republican candidate Biden has a prayer of beating. Do you honestly not get that?
What’s this? Icky turning on Daddy Joe? Who you want to replace him? It’s Kamala isn’t it?! You got a thing for cackles we don’t know about?  

 Also Joe barely knows what flavor of ice cream he wants. So who’s pushing him to stay in the fight? Dear sweet Jill? Is she the one who desperately wants to stay in the White House?

inicky46 61 Reviews 131 reads
posted
10 / 17

A certain Bozo pal of yours will start calling you "Mr. Repeat."

cks175 51 Reviews 117 reads
posted
11 / 17

My "demo" numbers don't match the actual numbers. I should have started with the actual turnouts and per centages and worked backwards, but I didn't.  I was just trying to give a short arithmetic lesson
Please, Imp.  Without proper formatting, your numbers are useless and you fail to get your point across.

Bottom line, as Nicky noted, the polls were right. No convoluted “Imp’s Weather Formula” would significantly change the results.  That said, if you honestly want further discussion on your theory, hit the edit button and create a table that makes some sense of your theory.

coeur-de-lion 400 Reviews 100 reads
posted
12 / 17
coeur-de-lion 400 Reviews 134 reads
posted
13 / 17

I couldn't make sense of it either, and on some days, I'm a numbers guy.  Lol

lester_prairie 12 Reviews 98 reads
posted
14 / 17

Yeah, pre-caucus polls really came close to the actual vote so it looks like whatever effect weather had, it didn't really change the distribution.  We do know that Haley had a lot of people come in just to vote for her in the primary but intend to vote for Biden in the general election.  

coeur-de-lion 400 Reviews 93 reads
posted
15 / 17

have made Trump the nominee, Biden will be toast and lose by a landslide.  

lester_prairie 12 Reviews 98 reads
posted
16 / 17

There's an old saying, better to say nothing and be presumed demented than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.

impposter 49 Reviews 113 reads
posted
17 / 17

Another look at the numbers.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/iowa-caucus-turnout-2024/
Iowa caucus turnout for 2024 and how it compares to previous years.
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"Iowa caucus voter turnout for 2024: The 110,000 voters who participated in the 2024 cacuses accounts for just under 15% of the state's 752,000 registered Republicans."  
... which means that Trump's 56,200 votes represent 7.5% of Iowa's registered Repubs, and the most fanatical 7.5% at that. What will the majority of Iowa's Repubs do in the General Election? I'm sure that there will polls and predictions about that.  
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"Trump won more than 56,000 votes in Iowa on Monday night, meaning he walked away with more than 50% of all ballots cast. He likely will take 20 delegates out of the 40 at stake. DeSantis will pick up at least eight delegates and Haley at least seven. There are 1,215 delegates needed to win the nomination."

Posted By: lester_prairie
Re: Record broken
Trump got the highest vote count (in unfavorable weather too), the largest spread, and greatest percentage of the vote, winning all 99 counties -- in contested Iowa GOP presidential caucus history.  
 .  
 Vivek drops out, endorses and will campaign with Trump (he's no doubt seeking an administration job.)  
 .  
 Haley comes in third and has declared war on Iowa.

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