He knows the strategy: declare victory early, then, if the vote goes the wrong way, scream "Rigged election!" It's pretty transparent. I think Trump is putting more energy into his post-election plot than to the campaign itself. Perhaps Trump knows the numbers just aren't there.
…indicate Trump will win by 312 EV. But if we account for the polls seem to undercount Trump support by 6-8%, given the polls at the time and the results from 2016 and 2020, then Trump has a very real chance to flip multiple blue states. We’re talking states like New Mexico and Colorado. Oregon and Maine. It’s difficult to tell in some of these states because in many of them there’s just no polling being done. Oregon is a good example. Last poll there was back in July. Left leaning pollster. Harris +5. If Trump’s popularity is undercounted by 6-8%, that means Trump could conceivably win Oregon. We can’t be all that certain since the polling data is so old and sparse. Now do I think Trump will win Oregon? Probably not, but I do think the chances for election night surprises are quite strong. He could flip any number of blue states.
Willy posts a non-partisan source about numbers being there (not poll numbers, actual early voting numbers) and Nicky chooses to ignore the data presented and instead defaults to an “Orange Man Bad” conspiracy theory.
I think Trump is putting more energy into his post-election plot than to the campaign itself. Perhaps Trump knows the numbers just aren't there
willy did NOT post a "non-partisan source." willy posted a tweet from X by righty Dyler Turden, who cherry-picked the numbers most favorable to righties.
This shows how fucking stupid righties are. Instead of posting the ORIGINAL non-partisan fair and balanced source, they have to go to a far-right turd like Turden to be spoon-fed righty bullshit to tell them what to think. Fucking morons! THIS is the original non-partisan source: http://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
New numbers just dropped: Republicans won early in-person voting again by 2-to-1, picking up 8,000 ballots. About 400,000 people have voted, and with mail, GOP statewide lead almost 20,000 ballots. Unheard of at this point in any other presidential cycle. Blog update coming.
At this rate, we’ll know Trump flipped Nevada before Election Day.
Good morning, fellow data obsessives. A week of NV early voting done, and SOS numbers and overnight Clark mail that came in after SOS posted show GOP has extended its early voting lead to 29,000 ballots, or 5 percent-plus. Details, projections, analysis later on the blog.
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