Write Review
1,981,499 Total Reviews 3,586 New Reviews
7,671 Users Online

Politics and Religion

Nothing has changed in the last few weeks re: this being a jump ball.
RespectfulRobert 48 reads
posted

It went from her up fractionally to him up fractionally…maybe. Every single battle ground state is well within the margin of error on average. Its about GOTV at this point.

cks175220 reads

Interesting to note that during this panel, CNN Host Kasie Hunt mentioned that many of her sources are telling her it’s looking like Trump could win with bigger margins than previously expected.

Kamala’s polling surge stopped when she shifted strategies. Just two weeks out, is it too late for her to shift again?

Related Link: Frank Luntz joins CNN's Kasie Hunt to discuss the state of the 2024 presidential race

ReplyQuoteReport
lester_prairie43 reads

Nobody shifts out of a winning strategy.  I think she was fading and they scrambled for a new message.

ReplyQuoteReport
willywonka4u34 reads

Frank Luntz should be taking pointers from Les, because Les seems to be better at Luntz’s job than Luntz is. Great job, Les, this is a really brilliant observation.

ReplyQuoteReport
RespectfulRobert49 reads

It went from her up fractionally to him up fractionally…maybe. Every single battle ground state is well within the margin of error on average. Its about GOTV at this point.

ReplyQuoteReport
cks17544 reads

Momentum. Momentum has changed. You don’t see Guest Op-Eds in the New York Times, penned by Nate Silver, saying his gut sense is Trump is going to win without a momentum shift. You don’t get Trump leading the RCP No Toss Ups map without a momentum shift. You don’t get Democrat Senators touting Trump policies in their homestretch TV ads without a momentum switch.

You’re correct that it looks very close right now, and that GOTV is important. But with GOP early voting setting records in many swing states, it’s very understandable that more and more pundits and pollsters are thinking Trump will be the winner.

ReplyQuoteReport
RespectfulRobert44 reads

And it is dispositive of nothing. We really don't know who is winning as the polling isn't exact enough to tell us. There are polls on both sides in the key states. It's just way too close. Which ones are right? Which ones are wrong? What will the weather be on Election Day, and if there is some bad weather, where will it be and whom may it hurt more? All unknowns.
.
Re: GOP early voting , don't read too much into that as in elections passed, Rs (read that as "Trump") told their voters NOT to vote early but now they are singing a very different tune so of course that would affect these earlier voting patterns. We just don't know if them doing better now will cannibalize their day of voting, and thus offset it, compared to elections past.

ReplyQuoteReport
coeur-de-lion44 reads

if you don't keep your head in your ass when you're not using it for something else.  You still refuse to acknowledge that, 1) trending generally will tell you where things are headed in the short term, and 2) Trump is well-known to under-poll both times he ran in the past, and this year is no different.  Hillary was supposed to be a lock to win in 2016, and Biden was polling in swing states 3-5 points ahead of Trump and ended up winning by a fraction of 1 point in the states that mattered.

ReplyQuoteReport
RespectfulRobert44 reads

The "trend" we are seeing now may already be over as it takes awhile for the polling to catch up. Right now, as I type this, General Kelly is out there killing Trump. Will that cause a trend the other way? Certainly possible. But even with this current trend, the polls are still well within the MOE as this is the closest election maybe ever recorded at this point.
.
Nicky already schooled you on under polling of Trump. They have made the adjustment. The only question is did they over adjust or under? We have no way of knowing.

ReplyQuoteReport
coeur-de-lion43 reads

have admitted that they are making an adjustment are Trafalgar and Insider advantage.  The rest are still saying Trump is notorious for under-polling, and they DON'T KNOW how far off they are.

ReplyQuoteReport
RespectfulRobert51 reads

Do you just make shit up and think people wont fact check you? Have you ever heard of Google?
.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4929465-pollsters-worry-underestimating-trump/

Related Link: http://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/the-pollsters-blew-it-in-2020-will-they-be-wrong-...

ReplyQuoteReport
inicky4644 reads

Why let facts get in the way of a good try of partisan hackery?

ReplyQuoteReport
RespectfulRobert47 reads

He is a lazy one at that. 10 seconds on Google is just too big of a hill for him to climb.

ReplyQuoteReport
inicky4637 reads

ReplyQuoteReport
coeur-de-lion44 reads

rebut Robert claiming an article says something that it doesn't.  A few farts is all it takes to take him down.  It's not that big of a deal, but you are easily impressed.  

ReplyQuoteReport
inicky4637 reads

ReplyQuoteReport
coeur-de-lion48 reads

like they do in your link . . .  

 
"Pollsters say they are employing a range of methodologies . . .", or this, “We’ve done everything we know how to do,” translates to, "We are throwing shit against the wall to see what sticks because we haven't figured it out yet."

 
Thanks for finding the link for me.  You saved me the trouble of looking up to rebut your position.  Like I said, Trafalgar, and Insider Advantage have figured it out as they have explained on Fox News.   The rest don't claim to know yet, but they say they are WORKING ON IT, so they are just pissing in the wind for now, just like your link says.  Nicky is right, your post made me chuckle, but for a different reason than he thought.   Lol

ReplyQuoteReport
Post Reply Back To Forum
Register Now!