It is not a secret we live in a complex world.

Not just because we can't have that nut Kim with a nuke tipped ICBM.  Don't you think the Iranians have told Kim they'd just love to give him a few billion for a nuke like that to put on the ICBM they're developing?  If they haven't, they will.  And if it's one thing Kim needs, it's cash.

That is the $64 million question.  

N Korea is unlikely to ever believe the US has the political will to start a shooting war over this, but that said, they are at least "more likely" to believe Trump would attack them than Obama who would flat "take it off the table" before negotiations even started.  

And that assumption is Kim believes in the M.A.D. doctrine. History tells us the Russians/Soviets do/did, and the Chinese as well, but does Kim?

So what do we do?  First of all, the sanctions just put in place are meaningful so we should allow some time to see if they work and if China seriously backs them.  How much time?  At least six months.  N. Korea is in bad shape already and if their exports are actually cut by 1/3 it will hurt.  After all, it was tough sanctions that brought Iran to the table, though they are not as nuts as the North Koreans.  It's also possible that if the sanctions bite hard enough Kim will be overthrown.
Second, I'd consider telling them their next ICBM launch will be intercepted by the THAAD system now in S. Korea.  Of course, if we SAY that we must then do it, not knowing what Kim will do in response.  He can level Seoul in a few days with conventional artillery and we'll have to fire back.  War is then inevitable, with hundreds of thousands of Koreans dead, maybe tens of thousands of Japanese and thousands of Americans.  Not to mention the world economy and stock markets in a shambles.
OK, maybe my second point ain't worth the risk.  That said, even the nightmare scenario above is MUCH less bad than if Kim gets nuke-tipped ICBMs to lob at us, Japan, etc.
It's a real conundrum.

EXPLODE.  US military action against North Korea triggers action everywhere. South Korea gets pummeled. Russia invades Ukraine, along with the Baltics while the European's watch. China supports North Korea, scopes up stategic islands in the South China Sea and invades Taiwan while Japanese watch. Iran launches missiles at Israel, invades Iraq starting another quagmire. Syria gases its resistance. The Europeans continue to watch and the Saudi's (maybe) watch.

Good post!

How badly do you think sanctions really hurt?  Most of the North Korean people already live in poverty and all too many die of starvation.  Kim remains insulated from it all and feels no "direct pain."  If only the pain and suffering of the North Korean people was enough to make those close to Kim, have a conscience, and take some action.  Other than someone close to him taking him out, can we be sure sanctions affect those we truly want them to affect?

-- Modified on 8/8/2017 1:39:18 PM

the China/India dynamics. But certainly India and Pakistan are at odds. They have been holding each other at bay for years.

and LAND for China to act.

Another quagmire to consider when dealing with the North Korea dilemma. What should we do?

That's gotta help.

Right, Albert Einstein!  Such a genius!  You sound like a true strategic thinker!  Spell it out.  Land and money?  Don't be shy, be more specific.  Go ahead and show off that razor sharp intellect of yours!  You sound like someone else all Americans with at least a 65 I.Q. are concerned about, with his half-baked ideas!

First, if there are food shortages in the country, people will start fleeing (as they have in the past) into China, putting more pressure on that country.
Second, some of the sanctions are aimed at the N. Korean elites, depriving them of luxury goods, etc.

How do you spell "feckless?"  Could it be T - R - U - M - P?

Jake, maybe I am missing something.  Haven't there already been extreme food shortages for an extremely long time?  Aren't the North Korean "elite" pretty well insulated from sanctions because they are part of the regime?

Trump is smart for stating his position. This way everyone knows. If it's going to happen, let it happen. It's more of a message to NKs ally in the North. I wonder what they will do? Why pussyfoot around when it's bound to happen? Better now when they (all of them) are weak.

He's got intemperate chest-thumping confused with real strength.  If you think Trump's mindless and inflamatory  posturing will make Kim snap into line you are denser and more naive than anyone thought.  Well, actually, I'm sure most of us thought you WERE that dense and naive before, too.

I am assuming Donny Boy wants to bomb the living shit out of them..

for the 25the Amendment.  We need Pence and Congress to get rid of Trump via the 25th amendment.  I've stated multiple times that, Trump's incompetence is checked-and-balanced by Congress.  (Hence absolutely no remotely significant laws passed despite Repub House and Senate).  And, again, I stated that tat the fucking scarry point is that Trump is Commander-In-Chief and now he's threatening N.Korea.

I suppose he could have led off with, "We hereby take a military response off the table".  Yeah that would have had Kim quaking in his boots.

On our Independence  day we watched Kim chain smoke for over an hour watching his cronies  getting ready to fire their Hwasong 14 ICBM.
   A few hawks in  central  command wanted to destroy Kim with  his pet rocket project  on the spot where he stood.  
   
   Fortunately we have a wise President who knows how unpredictable and foolhardy  a forced regime change could be.  
 
  Too bad for  innocent Libyan citizens  we didn't have a strong  President with vision in the USA to foresee the world wide negative consequences immediately after  Gadhafi was overthrown.

..."fuckless?"  J-A-K-E

Now I know why Jake calls you "Happy Chimp."  You made a statement.  I questioned your veracity to follow through.  Land and money?  Go ahead. Elaborate.  If you do not understand what the word means there are always online dictionaries.

...the President of a unified Korea because you've been such a loyal puppy dog.  You'd love that - you'd get first crack at K-girl crack.  They'd be FOTB before they even got on the boat.

Ahhhhhhhhhhh "grasshopper."  You are beginning to catch on.  There ARE no simple solutions to this one!  And Trump's feckless exclamation has not done anything to get us any closer to a viable strategy.

Very astute observation!  Trump is a very wise leader at that!  Do you think Trump has given Putin the nuclear codes yet?

You caught the dense part. Lol.

-- Modified on 8/8/2017 10:41:40 PM

both of them are too big of pussies to do it!

the biggest crowd of adoring fans in the history of mankind!

He gets pissed reading that North Korea has successfully miniturized a nuke and tells Kim if he threatens war again The Feckless One will respond with "Fire and fury."  Sounds like a red line to me. So what does Kim do?  He threatens to nuke Guam!  Then he says he'll make mainland US a "theater" of nuclear war.
What does The Feckless One do?  Nothing.  He hadn't told his staff he was going to do it.  It wasn't in his talking points.  So his staff tapped Tillerson to tell Americans all was well and they should sleep just fine tonight.
Looks like Donnie blinked.  Bigly.

Contrary to popular belief not everybody on one side of the aisle is smart and not everybody on the other is stupid. I will say this thread was actually a rare time where there was some actual "discussion" going on until a couple of retards joined in, but I will try to keep the actual "discussion" going on.

because Laffy agrees with you. Lol.

Kim isn't going to nuke Guam any more than we are going to nuke N Korea.

1) I doubt Kim is going to nuke Guam either.  But we don't KNOW he won't try, or maybe you're so close to him you have inside info?  Also, the fact Kim has threatened to do this before has ZERO to do with Trump's tirade being a show of weakness.  Follow along closely, now, GaGa.  Trump makes his "red line" statement about "fire and fury" if Kim makes another threatening statement.  Within a few hours, Kim threatens Guam AND the continental US.  Trump does zilch. How is that not red-lining and blinking?
2) You act as if I was in favor of Obama's red line statement when you should know I've described it as his worst foreign policy blunder.  So your attempt to link it to my statement is disingenuous or, at best, ignorant.

So tell Putin his pro Trump propaganda is not working on here.