...It is the highest number yet...

I guess people just don't realize how great they are doing, huh? They think they are doing bad when in reality they are doing GREAT! People have been brainewashed by the liberal media into thinking those tax cuts for the top 1% didn't do them any good, isn't that right, rightees?

Check it out:
http://www.pollingreport.com/

The economy has grown over 20% in the last 11 quarters.  That increase is bigger than China's entire economy. But hey, who needs solid economic data to support their argument when you've got a poll?

sound of desperation.

Probably the same people who believed we found WMDs in Iraq and that Saddam was involved in 9/11.

The economy grew 5.6% in the first quarter of 06.  The fastest rate of growth in 2 1/2 years.  Weekly earnings are up 4.5% over last year, their highest rate since February 1998.

Who needs solid economic data to support your argument when you've got Bender's brain?

While your numbers may indeed indicate a healthy economy, surely they are reflective of selective data manipulation, the irony is that these numbers have been culled by eliminating certain factors from the algorithm, including the $300 BILLION dollars spent on Iraq, the $135 BILLION dollars spent on Afghanistan, and oh by the way, did they mention they don't bother figuring in such tidbits as the interest being paid on the National Debt (whats the prevailing interest rate on 8.8 TRILLION dollars?).

If you take away the on-paper manipulation of money markets so the veracity of the economy is taken into effect, while the total numbers say one thing, the facts on the ground indicate something else entirely.

Next time, please do not be so selective in your argument. It holds as much water as a sieve under a running faucet.

OK, you may now resort to some right wing mean spirited attack as a response. I sure don't expect you to be factual. But I do insist you be entertaining.

I think the individual in this society is prosperous in much the same way as the economy as a whole.

As DocGonzo points out, the overall properity of the economy may be attributed to the huge debt load that the U.S. is taking on to finance the Iraqi war and other defense programs like missile defense. With the individual consumer, they have probably kept their head above water by using their home equity as an ad hoc ATM.

One thing is sure, the line-worker isn't getting phat on salary increases (see below link) for government statistics.

But what can you expect from, rightwinger, who recently crowed that the Dow as near historic highs. Yes, that's true, except those highs were reached 6 years ago .... which means that anyone who invested in 2000-2001 would have had 'dead money' for those six years.

Rightwinger claimed that he had made lots of money from investing during the George W. reign. That's certainly possible, but not by investing in any of the broad US markets, as DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are down, some rather sharply from their 2000-2001 highs. Where the money was to be made in these markets were: i) shorting the dollar (e.g., buying euros); ii) buying gold mining shares or gold bullion; iii) international funds, exclusive of U.S.; and iv) energy companies (e.g., Halliburton, with an added boost from Gitmo prison camp construction). Note that none of these investments qualifies as a "US economy is great" play.  

-- Modified on 7/19/2006 9:53:22 AM

There are ALWAYS negative and positive economic statistics that can be trumpeted by partisans.  Two notable exeptions are the Hoover and Carter admins. that seemed to have nothing but negative statistics across the board.

I believe the statistics that I brought up over a couple of threads of job growth, the Dow, GNP growth, inflation, etc. are the best indicators.  
2 Senses argument of Nasdaq isn't very valid.  It was insanely inflated in the 90s because people didn't know what they had.  A website selling petfood was going for over a $100 a share.  It was lunacy!  Greenspan kept warning about the tech bubble bursting.  We will all be very old men before the Nasdaq reaches 5,000 again.  And when it does it will be based on hard numbers as opposed to "irrational exuberance" as Greenspan called it.

I did have to mock Stanima's poll because I don't believe economists or the Fed use Gallup polls to assess the economy.  That being said most people vote with their wallet.  The price of fuel is sky high and people are pissed about it so it will affect these polls.

I do find it curious how libs only worry about what the military costs.  It is a drop in the bucket to social spending.  If we cut the RATE OF GROWTH of one social program everyone poops their pants.   I can't see anybody getting elected with the promise of cutting programs and congress sure does love their pork, so don' get your hopes up of deficit reduction.  Remember that Clinton's surplus was "projected".

Gonzo- You hurt my feelings.  When have I ever been mean to you?

-- Modified on 7/19/2006 3:11:31 PM

"Remember that Clinton's surplus was "projected".

Kind of like this administration's claim that Iraq oil revenues would completely cover the cost of the war.

"I do find it curious how libs only worry about what the military costs.  It is a drop in the bucket to social spending."

Your people cut educstion funding to the bone so they can build ONE more B-2 bomber.
The United States currently represents over 60% of ALL military expenditures for the entire planet.
Thats 20% more than EVERYONE else put together! INCLUDING THE RUSSIANS AND CHINESE!!!
I find it curious how right wingers such as yourself can look at these numbers and not feel shame.
Clintons surplus wasnt projected. When he left office, the US was enjoying its biggest surplus in history. It took the Usurper Cretin less than 5 months to turn it into a deficit. We borrow monrey from the Chinse to pay the "tax rebate", a thinly disguised bribe by Repugnants to buy votes from the mindless lemmings who actually believe the shit being spewed by the Rove Regime.
These cocksuckers have literally gotten away with mass murder.
rightwinger, its true, you've never been mean to me. But I've read your venom directed at others when they make points contradicting your sense of correctness. But you are correct, my comments were out of line considering your treatment of me in the past. i apologize.
but i wont apologize for thinking you are being misled. Badly. Misled.

Military spending is not a drop in the bucket. It is the second largest item in the 2007 FY budget at $466 billion, not including a $72.4 billion supplemental request for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Not sure about your metrics but to me more than half a trillion dollars is not a drop in the bucket.

Far be it from me to defend those who bought pets.com (although that was a really neat sock-puppet).

However, I note that the broader point that I was making remains unchallenged. Namely, that if you bought the broader U.S. indices from 1998-2001 and were a "buy and hold" investor, then you'd be at best even and at worst underwater with those investments in 2006.

In summary, the U.S. stock market(s) have not signaled, or reflected, a strong economy, since the ascension of George W. You'll have to look elsewhere to support that thesis.

One reason for investors being leery of the U.S. markets was the extensive graft and corruption that was rampant in corporate boardrooms, as exemplified by Enron, Tyco, Healthsouth, Worldcom etc. And, indeed, even with feeble attempts for reform like Sarbanes-Oxley, there is a new brewing scandal on the backdating of stock options by corporate management.

There is still heavy disillusionment amongst U.S. investors with Wall Street and their press flack bubbleheads, like CNBC and the (now defunct) CNNfn.

-- Modified on 7/19/2006 5:14:46 PM

I was under the impression that the Bush admin has increase education spending more than any other admin.  

I was also under the impression that we protect over 60% of the world so it makes pretty good sense that we would be armed to do it.  If North Korea invades South Korea who is going to stop them?  Russia, China, or USA?  When Iraq invaded Kuwait who took it back?  Yes we had the UN and GB. but it was essentially us.

I thought we were talking about economics and it got to "mass murder"?  Focus people, focus!

The stock market is NEVER a straight arrow going up at all times.  The rate of growth over the last 4 years has skyrocketed. The scandals, 9/11, and war have not stopped it.  This is a very resilient economy. A great indicator.

The big lesson of the corporate scandals is to NEVER invest the lion's share of your money in one company or even one fund.  Investment should always be broad.

The corporate scandals (which were perpetrated in the 90s)and Nasdaq's "irrational exuberence" shows that the 90s economy wasn't as great as we thought.  A lot of the inflated market values were based on nothing (Tech) or deception (Enron, Tyco). This market is based in reality.

PS- You mentioned "Buy and Hold" stock owners.  Bad strategy.  You have to always be monitoring and proactive.  That is why investment bankers still have a job even though we can buy our own stocks online.

-- Modified on 7/19/2006 6:07:08 PM

The annual budget is over 2 trillion.  Over 1.5 trillion dedicated to social spending and building another Robert C. Byrd memorial bridge.  But the children are still starving.

THERE WAS NEVER A SURPLUS DURING CLINTON'S ADMINISTRATION!!! He came close ONE year, but the National Public Debt went UP, EVERY year.

STOP saying it, It AIN'T true.

which means that the budget must consist of about 4 drops.

And everything else is "social spending" and roads/bridges, etc.

I suppose I can understand the idea that we already have too many roads, but I wouldn't have pegged you for an environmentalist.  Perhaps your objection is that it's not YOUR company that has the contract.

So, what would you like to cut?  http://www.hhs.gov/

Does it occur to you that perhaps that's what we're defending?

Or maybe that's just your idea of what facts are.

I have a friend whose an investment banker & some of the things IB's do involve the issuance of bonds, work on corporate mergers, and handle selling a company’s stock to the public, etc...Stockbrokers handle the day to day buying/selling of stocks, & their work can certainly be rewarding, but investment banking is a totally different beast...

that the "lesson of corporate scandals" is not to lock the defrauding lying motherfuckers up, but to diversify.

Look, if I have to assume a substantial amount of accounting fraud in a market, I'm going somewhere else, because I know that even the prospect of litigation makes any sort of profit dubious.  If we can't trust what we see and hear, then shit, we may as well have a fucking Nigerian economy.

As a general rule, I don't see a lot of social value in any type of deceit, and I don't think it's a profitable idea that a community should accept fraud.  

Besides, lying weasels piss me right off.   I guess that's a problem I have with lots of rightwingers.

So by your definition 100% of non-defense spending is categorized as social spending?  Does that include the 1/4 billion dollars of interest on the national debt?

Here are two instructive plots for RW. The first is the chart of the Dow for the 4 year period that RW said was "skyrocketing". Looks like approx. a 30% increase over 4 years, or ~7-8% increase per year. On the other hand, the second plot is the increase in Templeton's Developing Market Fund, a mutual fund that specializes in developing countries, such as India where many 'outsourced' jobs from the U.S. has landed.

You'll note that the increase for the Templeton fund is 128% over the same four year period (> 5X Dow), and these sorts of rises have been seen in all international markets, excluding the U.S. When you substract out inflation and taxes from the Dow 'increases', I would argue that (if you're using the DOW as a surrogate for economic vitality) the U.S. economy is in the doldrums. Relatively speaking, you would have done much better kicking your US funds to the curb, and going international.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.asp?Symbol=%24INDU&ShowChtBt=Refresh+Chart&DateRangeForm=1&PT=5&CP=1&C5=7&C6=2002&C7=7&C8=2006&C9=0&ComparisonsForm=1&CE=0&CompSyms=&DisplayForm=1&D5=0&D7=&D6=&D3=0


http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.asp?Symbol=tedmx&ShowChtBt=Refresh+Chart&DateRangeForm=1&PT=5&CP=1&C5=7&C6=2002&C7=7&C8=2006&C9=0&ComparisonsForm=1&CE=0&CompSyms=&DisplayForm=1&D5=0&D7=&D6=&D3=0

-- Modified on 7/19/2006 8:29:44 PM

Could it be because they are not sharing in the supposed prosperity?

I had my best earning years under Clinton -- I can't say that about the Bush years, that's for sure...apparently 64% feel the same as me...

Somebody is doing great now, I'll give ya that -- it just not many of us...

You just can't admit that can you rightwinger?

The Dow on July 23, 2002 closed at 7,784
The Dow on July 19, 2006 closed at 11,011

I stand by my skyrocket quote.

Have you read the thread?  We're all having a wonderful, intelligent conversation.  Why do you want to dumb it down?

To address your "point".  I've had up & down years myself.  I've never held anyone but myself responsible for my success and/or failures.  Grow up.

You just can't admit it can you?

Telling me I should "grow up" is not an answer. You are in denial and you can't admit you are wrong. You can't admit that the vast majority of people are not doing so well even if the economy is growing. Why can't you admit that? Is it because your entire philisphical premise will come crashing down because it just does not hold water?

That is an issue of POLICY not maturity of the 64% surveyed who don't feel things are going well. It is you who is immature and cannot admit you are wrong.

No doubt about it, you are a "market timer". Almost any other entry point in this 4 year period, would have yielded a considerably lower return.

But let's concede your numbers. An increase from 7784 to 11011 in the Dow would yield an increase of 41.5% or ~10%/year for the 4 years. My point is that these numbers are anemic for a true bull market, such as one seen in the international markets over the same time period; in Templeton's Developing Markets Fund, over 3X the increase seen in the Dow. There, you don't have to be picky about when to buy in - these international markets were always going up.

The reason I chose the comparison between the US and developing markets is the latter's much greater economic activity and vibrancy. This is occurring, in no small part, because large, multinational companies are "outsourcing" US jobs to these third-world countries. On the one hand, this is good news for countries such as India, but bad news for US workers, who are finding little or no increase in their earnings.

-- Modified on 7/19/2006 9:19:10 PM

Approx. 2/3 of the people are upset because they can't afford to buy a home, or pay for medical insurance, college tuition, and energy bills. They've seen their wages remain stagnant, while the true constituency of George W. have grown fat on huge tax cuts.

The poll wasn't "How are you doing financially?"  The poll was the direction of the economy.  Fuel prices are high and everyone is pissed.  AS IMENTIONED EARLIER, people vote with their wallet.  High fuel prices also negatively affect the stock market and inflation. It is a cause for concern.

Here is a test for you! The GNP is booming.  That means that people are buying things.  The Dow is above 11,000.  That means that people are investing. Now I want you to hunker down and really think about this.  If people are buying things and investing at a high rate, does that mean they are doing well or not doing well financially?

These wing nuts are so cooked.

That's what you accused Buill Clinton of, remember?

I STARTED the thread you freak! You took it off track. I addressed your original post BEFORE you started changing the subject like the "mature" person that you are.

Keep citing those polls while I cite factual economic data.  Are you going to answer my last question?  Don't worry.  You don't have to.  Class dismissed.  

2Sense-  Home ownership is actually at record levels across the board demographically.  I'm sorry to interrupt.  What were you saying about those polls again?

Much of that 'homeownership' to which you refer has been created by the use of interest-only ARM's (adjustable rate mortgages) which these 'homeowners' will not be able to afford when the loan rates reset. These IO ARM's amount to several trillion dollars worth of loans, which will be resetting in the next two years.

In the recent past, these IO ARM's have been converted into new loans, so the homeowners were temporarily spared. With housing prices plateauing and interest rates dramatically increasing, these options are no longer viable.  This means that many existing homeowners will see their homes foreclosed.

It goes without saying that housing for new buyers is unaffordable in California. The average home (new or existing) is selling for $500-$600K, and with interest rates climbing, selling to 1st-time buyers is drying up to non-existent.

Don't listen to me - spend some time on:

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/

How many years have we heard about the "Housing Bubble"?  Is any economic news good news for you? Yes, they are home buyers and building equity but their mortgage isn't fixed.  So the economy is bad?  Everyone is going to foreclose?  You guys are really reaching now.

Expensive housing means it is a SELLER'S MARKET.  That means that people are buying them up.  THIS IS A GOOD THING.

Why do most Americans feel like they are worse off? Why? It is a simple quest which he refuses to answer because he would have to admit he is WRONG which he will never do. He is incapable of any type of soul searching ot interspection at all. He is an immature person who has to believes he is always right, never wrong even in the face of direct and overwhelming evidence that he is wrong. I honestly feel sorry for such a soul.

Well, of course, logically either he's delusional or we are.

Next, we'll be hearing from rightwinger about how great things are going in the Middle East under George W.'s foreign policies. Consistency is one of his virtues -- much like George W., who as I recall, has never made a mistake.

This (for the 3rd time) is my answer.  Now you need to answer my question posted.

The poll wasn't "How are you doing financially?"  The poll was the "direction of the economy".  Fuel prices are high and everyone is pissed.  AS IMENTIONED EARLIER, people vote with their wallet.  High fuel prices also negatively affect the stock market and inflation. It is a cause for concern.

Here is a test for you! The GNP is booming.  That means that people are buying things.  The Dow is above 11,000.  That means that people are investing. Now I want you to hunker down and really think about this.  If people are buying things and investing at a high rate, does that mean they are doing well or not doing well financially?

Of course the rate of growth for an emerging economy is going to be higher that the USA's.  China and India's economies are still in an infantile stage.  It will all be up,up,up for quite a while.

When you compare the USA's rate of growth to any old European economy you will get a different story.

PS- I like your "market timer" comment.  The dow went up anout 200 today so I'm glad Stanima didn't find his little poll until today.

Are you too busy looking through the USA Today for another poll?  You need to answer the question.  It does require more thought than emotion.  Not your specialty.

I have given you about a dozen hard economic facts.  Everyone else on the board is willing to talk economics.  You keep screaming about a poll as some kind of relevant data.  You truly dumb everything down.  I guess that IS your specialty.  Here is the question again:

The GNP is booming.  That means that people are buying things.  The Dow is above 11,000.  That means that people are investing. Now I want you to hunker down and really think about this.  If people are buying things and investing at a high rate, does that mean they are doing well or not doing well financially?

So you're a failure as a provider and not in a successful station in life?  Who's fault is that?

With your cognitive capacity I would say you have peaked.

Explanation of economic stats to come tonight.

Jack, you're right, diversifying won't help if all of the "weasels" are on the grift.

For example, the backdating of stock options, which is nothing more than stealing money from the shareholders, is a very common, under-the-table practice. How are you going to diversify away from that?

To the extent that U.S. corporations pull this nonsense, money will simply not be invested in domestic companies. Indeed, most mutual fund money flows have been going out of US companies and into foreign ones.

"No amount of chaff can hide the failure of our remarkable productivity surge (and the accompanying robust growth of the overall economy) to meaningfully boost average wages, which have barely grown with inflation. Separated by income level, the picture is more dismal. From 2000 to 2005, for example, average weekly wages for the bottom 10% dropped by 2.7% (after adjustment for inflation), while those of the top 10% rose by 5.3%.

Hardly a day goes by without further reminders. Not long ago, for example, the Journal reported on its front page that tax revenues from the top 10% of Americans were growing dramatically and would reach 56.2% of all taxes this year, up from 52.2% in 2000. That's good news for the Treasury but not good news for those further down, whose taxes are not rising because their incomes are not growing.

The fact that you think I am a provider is typical of your types -- you have no idea what the fuck you are talking about and haven't bothered to find out either. Read my reviews, do a search on the board -- then tell me what I am.

You are so patheitic.

fraud pretty much eliminates any constructive or cooperative aspect in commerce.   Interesting that our rightwinger doesn't seem to think it's that big a deal.  I'm guessing he's a stockbroker, which would make perfect sense.

All the polls show that people are NOT happy with the economy regardless of the DOW, GDP, UNEPLOYEMENT FIGURES, BLA, BLA, BLA, YOU NAME IT....

If people feel they are working harder for less, no statistc in the world is gonna change their minds. And you can't admit that your economic predictions were wrong and philosiphy doesn't really work so well for most people.

Are you really this dumb, or are you just playing the part?