How about Ed Koch and Dick Morris?
1. No incumbent president has ever been elected with less than 50% of the vote. Bush can't consistently pull more than 50% of the vote.
2. No candidate that lost every presidential debate has ever won the presidency. Bush lost all three debates. And,
3. Probably the most important. Desperation and anger will always trump happy complacency.
Half of America doesn't bother to vote. Of course, they still answer poll questions and will say they intend to vote but half of them don't and it's who shows up on election day to vote that really counts.
Anger is a powerful emotion. Powerful emotions will always trump happy complacency. (This is why Bush is trying to create fear in people because fear is another powerful emotion and he hopes to motivate people to the polls through fear.)
I believe Democrats have the edge in this election because they are REALLY, REALLY angry. They honestly believe Bush is the worst president in their lifetime and they are desperate to get him out of the White House.
Never, ever underestimate the power of angry and desperate people. They are motivated and a powerful emotion always trumps happy complacency.
With Bush in power, the average republican is fairly and maybe a little complacent. They intend to vote, but then they worked all day, fought rush hour traffic, the lines to vote are really long, and, besides, the polls show Bush winning by a comfortable margin and one little tiny vote isn't going to matter all that much difference.
However, if you're a democrat and you really, really HATE Bush and Cheney as much as most democrats do, you are REALLY motivated to go vote. You don't care how many hours you worked that day or how long that damn line is. You don't care if it's pouring down rain or 10 degrees outside. You will stand in that line till tomorrow if you have to because you are passionate about giving Bush a one-way ticket back to Crawford, Texas.
Powerful emotions such as anger and desperation will always trump happy complacency. Never, ever underestimate the power of angry and desperate people.
Also, consider the following:
# 1. Do you know ONE person that voted for Gore in 2000 that plans to switch parties and vote for Bush in 2004? Me neither.
#2. Do you know anyone that voted for Bush in 2000 but because of the war or losing a job, etc., are now voting for Kerry? I'll bet you know at least a few. I do.
If Bush couldn't win in 2000 (he didn't win, he was appointed) then how is he supposed to win in 2004 with even less votes.
So, I'll put my money on angry democrats any day no matter what the polls say.
(Of course, there is the matter of the Christian right, but most of these people are conscientious citizens that were already registered to vote and voted for Bush in 2000.)
Again, I'll put my money on angry democrats . . . Bush is going down.
of course there are other minor issues:
1) Record budget deficit
2) Record trade deficit
3) The world would like us to get a new leader, including our cousins in Britain, who have stood beside us in every war
4} The Iraqi war that has no economic or safety value for an average American. Before the war, oil was $24/bbl, and I certainly don't remember any American getting killed over there on a daily basis.
5] Unpredecented, under-reported, unemployment
and of course we can add a few more!
I hope you are correct. I am not a huge Kerry fan, but I dislike so much of what Bush has done. I assume Bush will win again, because I believe in the power of the richly-reward Big Money Club to stack the decks one way or another. They stand so many billions to lose in the short term if Bush doesn't get re-elected and their party is ended, tax breaks get rolled-back, etc. I will thus keep my expectations low, if only to risk being delighted in the end.
-- Modified on 10/20/2004 2:45:49 PM
terrorism that is the most important reason Bush leads now in the polls.
... this is a very close election. Most of us, simply because that is how people are, don't meet and interact with people who think differently then we do. The country is very divided on this choice.
Our real hope should be for a decisive victory for one of the candidates. If we have 5-6 Florida's in this election (or are preceived to have this situation), the country will be in chaos.
As a consistent Kerry supporter, I hope he will win and I will work to make that happen. However, the current polls make that look problematic.
Harry.
Harry,
WA State yesterday said that 314,000 new voters were registered by the deadline yesterday. In King County (Seattle) people waited up to 2 hours at the Record Building to register to vote.
WA State Election officials expect an 85% voter turnout this year. The state hasn't had that kind of turnout since 1944, in the midst of WW2, when the state had an 84% turnout.
(WA state noramlly has 1 70% turnout on Presidential election years.)
Record registrations have occurred this year. What or who has caused this?
Extrapolate to 50 states.
Current polls do NOT poll newly registered voters
Michael Moore appeared at Key Arena in Seattle yesterday. 18,000 (full house) showed up and paid 20.00 a piece to see him.
...I hope that John Kerry wins. Unlike you, I think that polling can check likely voters, not just registered voters. Both sides are signing up new voters and non-voters: I'm much less sanguine than either of you about these new voters turning out a groundswell for Mr Kerry. California, Washington, and Oregon don't really matter very much. Neither does Massachusetts (where I live). : Think Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Iowa, Minnesota, and Florida.
Unless some last minute news changes things, I don't hold out much hope.
I'm still very concerned for the stability of the US if a very close election goes to the lawyers and the courts.
Harry
As I have said since August, people are afraid of change, and unless they are hurting badly enough where it counts (which is almost always financially), when it comes down to decision time, those who are swayable (which are fewer and fewer these days because of the polarity of the parties) will go for what they know. McDonalds instead of sushi.
The R's have been able to keep the "security" issue (read: the fear factor) at the forefront enough that it has trumped the economy and our socio-economic dichotomy and is the main factor in the election. As such, people will go for what they know, and Bush will win.
Someone asked us to not say stuff like this a ways back, so I haven't, but I feel this is inevitable. In spite of this, I will do everything I can down to the last minute to work against it.
If we work hard enough, we can remove George W. from office.
Kerry is making good progress in the battleground states (particularly Ohio and Pennsylvania), and electoral-vote.com has him over the 270 needed to win.
Voting, obviously, is critical. But so too is GOTV (get-out-the-vote), particularly through the DNC, America Coming Together, and moveon.org.
at this (notwithstanding the supposed hoards from the religious right who will vote for the first time).
The right man for America can win this.
Encourage everyone you know to vote.
Thomas Jefferson has been dead for a LONG time.
And also..................
NONE OF YOU on this board can be CERTAIN who will win. You're all just projecting your hopes.
In the end, the elctoral process and the U.S. will LOSE this election, becasue regardless of the results, thanks to the bullshit that happened in Florida last year, the "losing" side will send this to court.
Because the polls are so close, neither side will gracefully accept defeat. The groundwork has already been started by both sides. Most of you on this board have been caught up in the nonsense. The posts about the electoral college are classic examples. All the postings by both sides of misquoted articles and distortions of truth.
My real sorrow is that regardless of who ends up being the final survivor in the legal battles, the 2008 elections will be worse. I didn't think it could get worse than 2000, but it did. 2004 is a dress rehearsal for the total collapse of the electoral process as we know it. There is blatant and rampant voter fraud. There have been strong movements to register non-US citizens as voters. There has been excessive involvement by other nations.
The whole concept of "voter disenfranchisement" is bullshit.
If you go to the polling place and cast a ballot, how do you KNOW FOR CERTAIN that YOUR VOTE was not counted. Maybe it was MY VOTE that was not counted! If you know you made a mistake on your ballot, why didn't YOU ASK FOR A NEW FREAKIN' BALLOT?!?!?!
Some people are too damn stupid to be allowed to vote. Voting is the most serious and precious right we have, and people have trashed that right and made a mockery of our election process.
-- Modified on 10/21/2004 4:51:36 PM
How about Ed Koch and Dick Morris?