Two economic professors from Yale published a paper a few weeks ago analyzing gold as an investment. Among their conclusions: 1) The real price of gold is very high compared to historical standards; 2) There is little evidence that gold has been an effective hedge against unexpected inflation whether measured in the short term or long term; 3) gold isn't a currency hedge; 4) There's no proof that gold is a good investment when real returns on other assets are low; and 5) If key emerging market countries owned gold on levels like more developed markets, the price of gold would likely rise.
Krista, this paper should be included in your reading and analysis.
I know this is not hobby related. But I am thinking , more like looking into buying gold and other precious metals.
I was wondering if anyone can share any good sites or books . I just want valid information so I can make the right choice .
I am mainly pondering if its a better option to have an IRA or invest in gold for my retirement.
Thank you !
Krista
-- Modified on 1/4/2013 9:19:01 AM
is the only way to go, IMO.
Be very careful!!!! As you are probably aware gold has had an unprecedented run. However, as international economies stabilize (which they are), investors will likely begin to rotate out of alternative investments and into more traditional investments. As this happens gold will likely move back to historical prices, which is likely below $1,000oz.
Just my two cents for what it is worth.
Two economic professors from Yale published a paper a few weeks ago analyzing gold as an investment. Among their conclusions: 1) The real price of gold is very high compared to historical standards; 2) There is little evidence that gold has been an effective hedge against unexpected inflation whether measured in the short term or long term; 3) gold isn't a currency hedge; 4) There's no proof that gold is a good investment when real returns on other assets are low; and 5) If key emerging market countries owned gold on levels like more developed markets, the price of gold would likely rise.
Krista, this paper should be included in your reading and analysis.
Krista, find a professional investment advisor to help you. (Yes, not always easy, but there are good, ethical advisors out there. I can help you find one if you like.) An advisor will tell you to diversify your investments among several asset classes, as NOBODY can predict with any degree of certanty which asset class will perform best in the long run. You are fairly young, and retirement is probably 25 or more years away for you, so do not put all your eggs in one basket. As for your question about having an IRA or investing in gold -- you can do both! By that I mean you can own gold in your IRA. Some folks (like a previous poster), strongly believe physical gold (usually coins) is the only way to go. I own both physical gold and a gold exchange traded fund (etf), which is sort of like a mutual fund that owns only gold. The conspiracy theorists will state that in times of crisis only physical gold will be worth anything. I tend to disagree, but if you worry about that sort of thing, buy physical gold. But, going back to my diversification comment, I would not recommend you put 100% of your investments in gold (or any other single asset class).
I applaud you for thinking about saving for retirement! Give the notion of finding a professional to help you some thought. After all, we all know just how much better professionals are at their jobs than amateurs......
If you are thinking this is an investment you want to grow and have available when you wish to retire, then you must seek professional help. If you are just thinking about putting aside a few bucks just to get your feet wet, then pick whatever tickles your fancy.
On the subject of professional financial advisors, you have to be careful here. Do a lot of research. Too many are just annuity or mutual fund sales people. If they work on commission, then they have a built in conflict of interest. I know, I used to be one many years ago, before I went honest LOL
Perhaps you can go on the Providers board and ask for recommendations. But, then still be careful. Lots of advisors are great salesmen and smooth talkers and their clients will happily recommend them even when their advice has only made money for the advisor.
right before the crash.
the problem with pros is that they are ALWAYS bullish.
if you invest long enough you will find out, sometimes, the risk of an investment is not worth taking. You simply have to wait.Most people don't figure that out.Even professionals.
Wait for what? The right time to invest? Do you have a crystal ball that tells you when that is??
Just another amateur. I bet you use charts.
when do you know? it's called experience and the wisdom gained from it.
charts? yes, sometimes.
Read what Jim Rogers has to say, he is a major gold investor, he is a billionaire, he knows what he is talking about, and he is saying that gold is overbought right now, it is due for a correction, in fact it could drop as much as 30% from where it is now.
Go to youtube and search for Jim Rogers to watch any of his interviews.
If you want to buy physical gold locally look at onlygold.com, they are reputable, I bought gold from them in the past, and I also sold gold to them in the past. There is no nonsense with them. The most nonsense you will ever see with gold coins are from people on ebay, that entire category on ebay is filled with scam artists, I know this from personal experience, and of course since you can't use paypal to protect your purchase if you are buying gold, you won't have any recourse either. Stick with local people running a business out of a real building, and that particular issue won't be a problem.
Krista I wanted to make sure you also considered putting funds into a Roth IRA, from a tax stand point a good option versus an IRA. I follow stocks, forex (foreign currency) and commodities (gold & silver) on a regular basis.
Open a Fidelity Account they will have advisors who can lead you in the direction you want to go. Since you are young you will want to be more aggressive in your investing and as mentioned previously diversification is the right way to go. Stay away from advisors who charge large fees. You can start small and as your resources grow continue to invest on a regular basis.
$1000 or below in the same time frame. it's usually part of an asset allocation/diversification strategy but usually not more than 10 % of total assets i.e .you don't want it to be 40% of your IRA. It is considered a hedge against inflation. We have not had high inflation in the US in a generation ( since the late 70's) which was the last time gold was in a bull market.Shortly after that Gold was a terrible investment. It languished roughly close to $200 an ounce all through the 80's and most of the 90's. When the tech boom of the late 90's was in full bloom I distinctly remember reading that all of the major banks around the world were SELLING their gold reserves. Since tech was all the rage they were following the money. it was the WORSE time to do that because two years later Gold began a multi year bull market that is still intact today.
Following the crowd is a dangerous proposition when you are late to the party so to speak. (read Jesse Livermore's book )
There is a fundamental lack of economics demonstrated when people talk about gold. Gold has the same value it did when it was $32 /oz. It is the money that has inflated. What that means is that when gold was a standard $32 what you could buy for $32 then is what you must now pay $1600 for. If you look at the inflation curve since 1800, you will see that there was virtually no inflation of the dollar until the 1940s. In 1800 you could buy a meal for 1 cent to 5 cents. In 1930, you could buy a meal for 10 cents to 15 cents. Now, a comparable meal will cost you $10 - $15. What changed? A meal or the value of the dollar?
Sorry to get pedantic.
Sorry to get pedantic.
I didn't realize there had to be a point. You have a point ,though, if you wear a hat it won't show.
jeez dude what a stupid comment you just made
That is because he doesn't really have an argument.. and is wrong to boot. So expecting him to give a point or elaborate would be a mistake. The value of the dollar has changed yes. But not at the same rate as the value of gold. Not even close.
I'm going the Bitcoin, Silver, and Gold route myself.
Hi Krista,
You have gotten a lot of good advice already. The secret to retiring well is investing early, and making regular contributions throughout your working career. Investing a little at a time early is much better than investing a lot late in your career. Starting now is very wise so congratulations on a great decision.
Gold has gotten a lot of hype lately. The problem is it is at a historical high, which means you are buying at the peak. You want to buy when it is low. Also, you want a balanced portfolio which includes probably not more than about 5% in precious metals. Gold has also been on the decline, losing value six weeks in a row and that trend could well continue. If you have other investments and want to add gold as a small percentage then there is no problem. If you are looking to make gold all your investments then you are taking a huge risk. If you decide to buy gold I would recommend dollar cost averaging your purchase.
I would strongly recommend you seek financial advice from an independent fee based financial advisor. Fee based financial advisors look out for your best interest, and make their money by charging you a small percentage of the value of all your investments. When you make more money, they do too so they have a financial interest in making you wealthy. Non fee based financial advisors make commission when they sell you something, so they make more money by selling you higher commission investments or moving you in and out of investments regularly to get a commission with each trade. Obviously this is often not in your best interest. They will often tell you it will cost you nothing because they are paid by the investment vehicle you are purchasing. If they tell you this they are dishonest, so run. There is no free lunch. What happens is you pay much higher fees which are often hidden, and this is how the investment vehicle makes the money to pay the commission. One way or the other you are paying.
I really like the advice of Ric Edelman, and he has local offices. He has been rated the #1 independent financial advisor three times. I don't use them as I have a plan through my work, but he gives very sound financial advice. They have local offices and will consult with you for free. If you decide to open an account they can do it for as little as $5,000 and will take care of all the worry for you setting up a balanced portfolio and rebalancing it as the market changes. If you decide to go with someone else read Ric's article on the 18 questions to ask an advisor before going to any appointments so you are educated on what to look for in a financial advisor. I posed the link below.
Good luck!