First of all, the OP doesn't clearly state the rules of his game regarding sequential wagers. I assume that you "spin the chamber" (randomize the doors and what's behind them) for each new bet. EVERY play is an independent event and the odds are 1/6 WIN and 5/6 LOSE each and every time.
Instead of using $500, I'll just use $1 and ask:
Would you wager $1 at odds of 1-to-6 to win for a $1 prize? Bad bet. $2? $3? ...$6? At a $6 payoff, it is now a fair bet at odds of 1-to-6. (Wager $500 to win $3000 worth of services = 1-to-6.)
In the long run, you will win close to 1/6 of the time and just about break even. If the prize is less than $6 ($3000), it's a bad bet.
If you do NOT spin the chamber after each bet, your odds actually IMPROVE with each bet.
First bet: risk $1 at 1-to-6 (17% chance) to win $6 but lose. Eliminate one door.
Second bet, there are only 5 doors left: risk another $1 at 1-to-5 odds (20% chance) to win $6.
Third bet ...
Fourth bet ...
Fifth bet, only two doors left: risk another $1 at 1-to-2 odds (50% chance) to win $6.
And so on.
Posted By: Zak0326
I'm a big time gambler who usually plays the odds and wins based off of knowing how to play the games. I wouldn't take this bet unless I was looking to throw away money. Your fighting a losing battle just based off the numbers. I'm going to compare this to Black Jack. According to my calculations you have an 83% chance of losing with 1/6. Your going to win 17% of the time if you play twice you chances go to 1/12 which is 8% 1/18 your odds are 6% of getting it right at any given point in the game the more you play the less your chances unless you are playing the game were 3/6 is the variable instead of playing the game three times individually. It would make the most sense to take the odds of 50% but keep in mind you just paid $1500 @ 500 each and that no longer seems like a deal.
To give you an idea if you play black jack correctly you have a 47% chance to win if you know what you are doing. If your playing casino war it's 50% on one card each. Feel free to correct me on the odds. If the game was one girl is your dream girl and the other 5 were not your dream girl but you still score I would take that bet. 1 out of 6 with 5 no prizes I'm passing every time.
Zak
Posted By: Waterclone
I didn't want to hijack Justino's thread below, but I'm inventing a new game, cause In my mind I heard the rhyme with Russian Roulette when I read his post
I can just picture a place with 6 doors. Behind 1 of them is a Russian Brunette, ready to give you the multi hour (as long as you like) session of your life. What ever you like. Behind the others... Nothing. Go home.
So, how much would you pay to play. Would you risk $500? 5 times out of 6, you lose, but 1 time you get what could well be valued over $2k or maybe even $3k. $400? $300? At what point would the probable loss of money be worthwhile for the 1 in 6 chance of the sublime?
Or do you never take the risk?
I think you need to get a new stat book.
-- Modified on 7/22/2016 9:06:29 PM