1. Romney will lose because of the right-wing machine and its anti-women, anti-gay attitudes. You will see a schism of sorts in the party as many women will raise their voices against the direction of the party.
2. The market will not be cut in half. The USD (/DX) is rising right now. This is exactly what the Fed wants - it will end up crashing oil down to $88 or so, and perhaps below, with some sort of arrangement with Iran the geopolitical crap will settle down, and 4-6 months later the "savings" in gas prices will help increase back-to-school sales, etc. There is most likely a wave 5 waiting to start in the next couple of weeks which will take SPX to around 1450-1470, then the summer swoon will take it down to 1290-1320. Around this time the Fed will promise extension of the Twist, but no explicit QE or some sort of placating version of QE, which will cause the market to rally. I suspect we peak around 1510-1520 before closing the year in the 1450-1470 range.
3. Obama will get re-elected - he will most likely pull a fast one on the Republicans by pushing for implementation of Simpson-Bowles either just before or during his convention speech. This will put Boehner on the spot - he will have to re-vote on the issue, except this time the Democrats are going to vote FOR it and this will force the hand of the Republicans. Paul Ryan will end up being outplayed because Simpson-Bowles is a lot less harsh on Medicare and SS while being a lot stricter with the wealthy and corporations than the Ryan plan and it achieves real deficit reductions as verified by many independent sources. Obama will be able to rationalize the decision by saying that when the plan came out the economy was in the tank, unemployment looked terrible, consumer confidence was in the shitter, the Euro looked vulnerable, war in Iraq looked interminable and no way out of Afghanistan, etc... now all of that has run its course and is turning around so the next thing to do is to shore up the US debt and build for the future and SB is the way. Besides if we do nothing, in 2013 across-the-board cuts will kick in due to the Superfailure of the Supercommittee to arrive at any reasonable plan (blaming Congress squarely for it) and everybody yaps about Presidential leadership, and here is Presidential leadership, pass the SB plan. Romney will be left looking pretty stupid. Right now he cannot propose the plan since it would put Boehner on the spot.
This will put the Tea Party in a tizzy - are they just gun-mad racists or are they really Rick Santelli, debt-reducing Patriots?
4. If SB passes it will strengthen the dollar quite nicely and drop oil prices and gold too. China still has money to invest so Obama will propose an infrastructure Bond and aim it towards repairing existing bridges, etc and also investing in High-Speed rail, Airport enhancements, and so on, and with the lowered material costs it will be a really promising story.
5. Weather is another unexpected factor - most of the midwestern farmers are 2-3 weeks ahead in their planting and have got most of the soybean and corn crops in the ground. They are expecting a bumper crop this year and this will help bring down the prices of corn and soy, which means most foodstuff we buy at the grocery store since even cows and chickens are fed this crap. Another plus for Obama.
Many of you obviously will not like to hear any of this. I personally am not sure I want to re-elect Obama, since I still think he failed us on the banks and they are definitely going to fuckup and take the economy down again in the next 2-5 years. But Romney is a clueless rich fool, and the rich part would not be a liability if he did not make it so plain. Plus he has a jackass buddy with a book talking about how income inequality is good, the whole Job Creator nonsense which is as absurd as Communist Statist pretensions of one group knowing exactly what to do with money. Anyway, that's a whole another topic for later.
In conclusion, Obama's Iraq war pullout, Osama killing, and Afghanistan pullout plan (which is now credible after he got the Iraq one to work) will work heavily in his favor to make the arguments about the economy and passing Simpson Bowles. Remember Iraq cost us at least $450B a year is direct costs. The guy has been planning for the long-term while the Republicans have been trying to win the next election and the next one after that. It will play out as it will, but right now Romney has no chance whatsover imo.
is only making this prediction because he hates President Obama with a passion.
The President will get re-elected and it has nothing to do with Romney, his presumptive opponent. No Republican that put his or her name in the hat this time around could beat Obama. The power of the incumbency -- especially with a history-making first Black President of the United States -- is far too strong to overcome.
...their wrong predictions. During the Colorado Republican primary, Rick Santorum had the early lead in voting results. On CNN, Ari Fleischer repeatedly said that his "sources" in Colorado assured him Romney would be the winner when all the votes were tallied. Santorum wound up the winner 40%-35%. Of course Fleischer never mentioned it; he just went on to the next primary as if he knew what he was talking about.