Sequestration or not, many local economic analysts are forecasting anemic growth in the DC area for the next 3-5 years. Our growth in the past ten years has been largely based on growth in Federal (mostly defense-related) spending, which has translated into public sector growth but even more growth in federal contractors. While a good chunk of those contractors are in MD and some in DC, the lion's share is in Northern VA.
It could be that we actually see a recession in the NoVa economy. With that in mind, I wonder what will become of the vibrant hobby market in NoVa, especially in the Tyson's area, which I believe is the single most popular place for Mid to high level providers in the DC area. Will demand shrink with local disposable income? Or will hobbying increase in a recession as with alcohol consumption? Will prices fall, stay flat or continue to rise? Will out of state providers be as eager to come here? Are we nearing the end of an era that we will look upon in future years as a sort of Golden Age for hobbying in the DC area?
I don't know if it's just this month, but the visiting talent is not looking as great it has been in the last few months.
It could be that we actually see a recession in the NoVa economy. With that in mind, I wonder what will become of the vibrant hobby market in NoVa, especially in the Tyson's area, which I believe is the single most popular place for Mid to high level providers in the DC area. Will demand shrink with local disposable income? Or will hobbying increase in a recession as with alcohol consumption? Will prices fall, stay flat or continue to rise? Will out of state providers be as eager to come here? Are we nearing the end of an era that we will look upon in future years as a sort of Golden Age for hobbying in the DC area?
It could be that we actually see a recession in the NoVa economy. With that in mind, I wonder what will become of the vibrant hobby market in NoVa, especially in the Tyson's area, which I believe is the single most popular place for Mid to high level providers in the DC area. Will demand shrink with local disposable income? Or will hobbying increase in a recession as with alcohol consumption? Will prices fall, stay flat or continue to rise? Will out of state providers be as eager to come here? Are we nearing the end of an era that we will look upon in future years as a sort of Golden Age for hobbying in the DC area?
a) I'm going to go out on a limb and disagree with the local economists.
If you are a Keynesian and seriously ideologically left then you would tend to believe in Government spending is the engine of economic growth. Unfortunately, Keynesian theory has been disproved and I'm not going to go into it. Politicians love it (Keynesian theory) and push it because it gets them re-elected and they can bribe special interests using your money. What the local economists are not taking into account is America is Bankrupt. We are out of road and now monetizing our debt, basically printing money with the right hand and the Federal Reserve is buying it ( our debt ie Treasury bills) with the left. ( China is no longer the biggest debt holder the FED is http://goo.gl/MFAMl ) Every great empire has tried this stunt in some shape and form and it has NEVER worked. The only result is you lower the value of your currency and sooner or later you have massive inflation followed by currency collapse. (Weimar Republic 1923 - 1924) Most people want to believe America is too big to fail, yes well the Roman, Spanish, French and British empires all thought the same way. In the land of 'everyone is special', and we constantly find new ways to reward mediocrity, that could never happen.
b) Sequestration will not only be a blow to local consumer confidence, it will trigger a cascade effect during a naturally slow time. Usually for many things are slow (1st quarter) due to paying off Christmas shopping and getting ready to pay taxes. What little disposable income will be reallocated to savings by the prudent and the wise. Nothing makes the rational hold to their money like uncertainty. Of course Wall Street will pretend nothing is wrong for longer than they should and I'm sure the administration will spin it. All I will say is this, have you been to the grocery store lately? You're already starting to see the effects.
c) Independents who live hand to mouth, are pill heads (drug issues) or let's be candid were marginally marketable to begin with will most likely participate in a pricing war. Those of you who don't notice things until there is a significant change, it started already. It has been filtering up from Backpage over the last two quarters. Take note the number of providers who have been actively chasing business after a I'm looking for post of late.
d) It's NOT likely you will see a pricing war 'among the major agencies' in MD /DC/VA market. Let's just say there is a state of Détente which a group of owners appreciate the wisdom of. I don't think it would be looked kindly upon, if some upstart Agency decided to ripple the waters. After all, order, NOT chaos is in the best interest of clients as well. Especially in very uncertain times when you can no longer afford to take risks with your ROI. I foresee prices in this sector to be fairly stable. People at ball games never appreciate a good back stop, until the day they need it. The same could be said for body amour as well.
e) There will come a point where the number of visiting providers will drop for a number of reasons. Many will see their profitability decline as each trip costs and competition increases. I also suspect you will see an increase in robberies and rip-offs of visiting providers as many local women withhold key information. I've seen this happen in other markets.
f) Golden Age ? Maybe as we move into difficult financial times, standards and principles will go out the window for many. Have you not noticed how this new generation of 20 something providers many of them really don't understand the concept of "service provider"? Let's ignore the one's who do, I'm talking about the self centered, all about me entitlement babies. Sadly, this is the future of this business.
g) Good questions, I'm probably wrong in my speculations *shoulder shurg* if I am, then I have no problems taking ownership of that.
Finally, remember these words from Glum the wise on Gulliver's travels:
"We're doomed, doomed I tell you, we'll never get out of here alive."
Lee Dreams
"Sine amore, nihil est vita
Anybody have the anecdote?
That said "Détente" is just a kind way of saying "Oligopoly", Lee.
On another of Lee's points, and i think we are veering off topic a bit here but i cant resist, I don't think it is accurate to associate deficit spending with the Left. Deficit spending when the private sector is shrinking really has the support of the vast majority of politicians and, more importantly, economists. It is deficit spending even during periods of solid economic growth in the private sector that appears to be most at fault for our perilous path.
That said "Détente" is just a kind way of saying "Oligopoly", Lee.
Wow I'm flattered and so happy you don't play for the other team.
A valid point and concern however.
I'm a die hard, flag waving, confirmed capitalist.
Oligopoly would suppress new individuals from entering into the market and resist someone with a better idea. Hypothetically speaking, that's not what would happen here. New ideas, doing it better is NOT impeded. One runs their shop as they see fit. What we don't need is some individuals doing unwise things which draws undo negative attention, putting everyone at risk. At the end of the day, there must be something which can be depended on no matter what happens.
If Hank Rearden was around, I don't think he wouldn't object.
Can I offer you a blueberry muffin ?
Lee Dreams
"Sine amore, nihil est vita
Still, what was referred to was, in fact, collusion between agencies to keep prices at a certain level. And the confidence in the fact prices will remain stable, even while the local economy *may* go into a nosedive, is not confidence at all, it is hubris. Collusion or not, people will not spend what they do not have. Unless said agencies who have formed a loose federation of sorts to prop up prices will begin to extend credit to its newly impoverished client base? I didn't think so.
As for other points, while it is true that Keynesian policies are unwise and ultimately are unworkable, that is at a macro level. What the original poster was pointing out was that the single largest employer in this area (and by this I mean Washington metro as it is commonly referred to) is about to undergo quite the haircut to its yearly operating budget, which will have a cascading effect on everything. And I do mean everything. While the proposed sequestration is but a drop in the bucket compared to the actual annual account deficit, it will cause a considerable amount of pain.
In short, this isn't a question of the soundness of one economic school of thought over another, this is about the coming economic reality for the DMV area. No single entity will be immune from that single immutable law of economics: broke people don't buy expensive shit, unless someone is irrational enough to give them the means, other than cash on the barrel head, to do so. And to this I say again: is the new business model for agencies to become both the provider, and the means to acquire a provider, of adult entertainment? Why, that sounds downright, and I hate to say it but someone must, Keynesian.
A valid point and concern however.
I'm a die hard, flag waving, confirmed capitalist.
Oligopoly would suppress new individuals from entering into the market and resist someone with a better idea. Hypothetically speaking, that's not what would happen here. New ideas, doing it better is NOT impeded. One runs their shop as they see fit. What we don't need is some individuals doing unwise things which draws undo negative attention, putting everyone at risk. At the end of the day, there must be something which can be depended on no matter what happens.
If Hank Rearden was around, I don't think he wouldn't object.
Can I offer you a blueberry muffin ?
Lee Dreams
"Sine amore, nihil est vita
I'm no economist, but I think I know human nature well enough. I have several friends who work either as contractors for the federal government, or are gov't employees themselves (let's face it, in this area I think everyone has friends who fit that criteria). The talks of upcoming furloughs definitely weigh heavily on the government employees, and many of the contractors are worried that budget cuts will translate to programs being trimmed down, which could lead to layoffs.
You can try to map out the ripple effect from there, how it may increase the unemployment rate, local businesses could suffer if the household's net income takes a hit, the recovering housing prices will slump again, etc etc. There may be some credibility to that progression, but at some point it starts to look like a butterfly effect on steroids.
While many of the residents in this area depend on federal government spending (either directly or through subcontracting), it is by no means the only business in this area. Even if some of those negatives come to pass, I don't believe it will be a long-term problem or nearly as extreme as some skeptics paint it to be. Let's face it, the DC area might not be the booming economy it was 10 years ago, but in terms of unemployment and the housing crisis, we got off easy. This too shall pass.
I'd like to think I browse through here often enough to pick up on trends, and I don't see a lack of quality providers as observed by someone else in this thread. Perhaps just no one that catches his eye? I usually hobby only once a month, but I've had two encounters in February I couldn't turn down and a possible third next week. Agencies have been fairly consistent and are bringing more girls in, and the independent ads here and on P411 suggest there's no shortage of well-reviewed opportunity. The price points haven't changed either, in a few cases some visitors even try for higher (double) rates because it's the norm for their usual market. Over the past 18 months I've been doing this, I've seen periods of ebb and flow, and I would say things are somewhere in the middle.
Assuming the worst and things bottom out completely, there are a few markets that will stay strong and might even flourish in the face of economic crisis: alcohol, drugs, and sex. People want those physical comforts when the rest of their lives are in a stressful state of flux and uncertainty. I don't think the "hobby" will suffer any significant shortage of visiting or local talent nor will there will be price drops because as I said, not everyone in this area depends on the government, and the cutbacks won't affect everyone in that arena anyway. If anything, recent incidents (robbery, assault) could do more damage than any budget crisis.
I'm making a lot of suppositions and speculations on the effects in this business, but then again they're based on suppositions and speculations about the economic state of this area in the coming months. At best we can only make assumptions about assumptions, so I hope you had a few grains of salt standing by for this unnecessarily long post.
Most of you gentlemen have made some good observations. I am not that concerned for the state of our hobby in NoVA until I see things hit rock bottom. My sense is that it would pop like the real estate bubble in some sectors instead of a slow decline. Providers still have many ways in which they can adapt their business strategy in response to market forces e.g. teaming with another provider of equal or greater skill and appearance to provide doubles dates. This saves them money on travel expenses and should attract a good crowd. Also, individual providers can add new items to the menu to increase business. I long for the day that greek is a standard for every menu (without upcharge)!
Many other menu options such as photo/video play, better pictures on their ads, longer sessions for the same amount, and as it was stated before, better understanding of the "service" element of this industry. At the end of the day, this hobby is about us, the hobbyist. The providers that do the best job at taking care of our needs will last the longest and make the most money. TER will be a major factor in that. Those providers that are so into themselves where they believe the world revolves around them and expect their customers to worship them, are probably already scratching their heads trying to figure out where their business has gone.
I really like this thread. This is probably one of the few economic markets left that is pure and unenfluenced by government subsidies, tax incentives, and other artificialities. As an economic indicator, it beats third quarter earnings projections from Walmart!
What I have noticed:
----------------------------
1. Quality visitors declining.
2. Airline tickets have increased and will increase further.
For those lucky enough to keep their income level and avoid layoff they might need to innovate.
I myself traveled to NYC to see a wonderful provider this month. The trip can be very inexpensive depending.
It's like anything in life; really. In other words, if someone wants something bad enough; be it companionship, food, drugs, alcohol, work, etc...; then I believe "where there is a will Baby, there's always a way!" wink-wink
And, as for Tysons having the pic of (what you conside(r the "elite" women out here; I beg to differ sweets! We're spread out all over, or in my case; see "friends" (who've been so for 6 yrs now) anywhere & everywhere within the states of Virginia, DC & Maryland! My opinion is that most of the great & absolutely exquisite women you find in the Tysons area are usually the "fave" of someone of great wealth who makes it more than worth their while to be at his "beck & call" in that area! Refused a couple of offers myself!
Have fun, be safe & enjoy! Worrying about tomorrow only takes you outta today & it's a good day!
Hopefully no offense taken at my "2 cents"; as that's all this has been, but fun I must say!
XOXO Always, Harper