Any thoughts on starting to see providers again? Vaccine is right around corner...... for now, maybe still too early?

It’s a personal risk calculus.
Check out all the new reviews and ads in your area.  
You can always ask if she offers outdoor sessions. 😂

At current level of active cases for the entire US, assuming neither person wears a mask, risk per encounter of being with a provider who is unknowingly contagious is about 7%. The more encounters, the greater the risk. For 5 encounters this rises to about 30%. Likelihood of getting infected from a contagious provider during a meeting is a separate issue, and have no info on that.

Cases and deaths have both skyrocketed recently, but % of deaths of infected people has declined substantially. However death rates are much higher for older people with co-morbidity conditions.

I assumed that a provider has been seeing 14 customers per week (some have said that’s low) continuously and maskless since the first week of April, but does not work if she has any symptoms whatsoever. Infections and deaths counts were taken from the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard Data Table. Risk was determined by my compilation of probabilities based on an epidemiologist's presentation (link below) of the longevity of the contagious period, intensity of symptoms, days asymptomatic and case counts and the non-contagious status of survivors.

The above is my analysis. I am no expert so use at your own risk. I welcome corrections & updates.

One could argue an active provider has already had the virus and is now immune.

that's not a scientifically viable position at all....

there is no evidence of immunity from the past infection

Yes, my assessment of the probability of encountering a provider who is unknowingly infected considers the possibility that the provider may have been infected several weeks prior to the date of the post and is assumed immune according to the epidemiologist referenced. However there have been reports that people can get this sh*t more than once, but it seems to be rare. (It also assumes some other conditions.)

... nor is there scientific evidence that covid-19 is NOT like many viruses which generally confer immunity to survivors. And second infections in the US so far seem to be rare, and Sweden seems to have accomplished herd immunity due to broad based exposure among the population.

How do you see Sweden developing herd immunity? They have recently had a large spike in deaths, cases, etc.
They had a spike in deaths and cases awhile back and some people thought they had herd immunity, but it obviosuly was not the case.  

Was is you reference, a recent one please, for herd immunity?

Here is another link to an article about whats going on in Sweden lately.  
I dont see evidence of herd immunity.  

You are correct. At the time of my original post on Sep-1 Sweden's contagion pool count was only 563/million population, far better than the US count of 3564/million, but the epidemic has worsened way more in Sweden than in the US since then. As of Dec-1 those metrics are now 13416 (up almost 24 times) in Sweden compared to 14234 (up 4 times) in the US. I do not know how much this data is affected by changes in increased testing, if any.
...
Cumulative deaths as of Dec-1 are worse in Sweden at 2.7% of cases vs. the US at 2.0% of cases.
 Thanks.

Thanks for the detailed reply!

Well, as a provider, to respond directly to the topic question, it's really simple to me, if one takes the topic question literally at face value....
 

I can only say: Possibly never?  or...a year more?  conjecture?  guesstimate?  

 
But.... if the several million or more fellow citizens in our own country that think it may be a hoax would just warmly consider taking the basic elementary and medically/scientifically proven routes of wearing a good quality mask, and practicing more socially cautious behaviors such as lessening parties, reducing large crowds, taking open travel in/around groups of other non-mask wearing people, etc, etc, etc,  and..... enough of the population actually gets vaccinated (75% or better from what i have seen in various reports), then maybe,  just maybe,  we can all begin to breathe a little better again within the next year (no pun intended, but certainly pertinent)....

 
 i do know this.... in all of my screening conversations in the last year i will ask questions, one of which being  "so what do you think of the whole Covid nonsense"....  Yes - it is kind of a trick question, but.... i have heard "democratic hoax, 5g virus, political hoax, government plot, someone actually asked if i knew anything about lizard people, someone told me they couldn't believe all the doctors and nurses in this country were going along with this bullsh**, and others have gotten pissed off or just hung up, etc....  and/or i have politely excused myself from every one of those conversations and permanently blocked their numbers.    I've also had a number of (truly fun and oddly spectacularly erotic) dates where the friend was socially distanced from me, wearing a mask, in the same room (more than 6 feet apart), and i've given a play/toy show while they also pleasured themselves, and outdoors is definitely an option when it gets a little warmer too...  : )  

 
.....as a sometimes primary caregiver, and as well -  having studied and practiced some real-life facilities safety/prevention/remediation management end of some bacteriology and microbiology and pathogen/infection prevention, and how to clean and sanitize different types of facilities in some of my corporate life work,  AND having had one family member become a long hauler after contracting it from a rehab center back in spring of 2020,  AND,  losing 2 other distant family members to it,   AND,  knowing people in nursing and medicine that are just quite pissed with the general public's attitude, i would have to say..... we all just have to do what we can, and hope that other people will do the same, and that vaccinations will take place on the significantly massive scale needed to stop the spread, or at least get ahead of mutations that are sure to come more rapidly, if we don't do the right things and the spread continues unchecked.  

 
...as far as masks being a violation of civil liberties, here's a thought... aren't people in this country already legally obligated by LAW to wear clothes in like 99% of ALL public places to cover their personal and private areas to protect others from being religiously, spiritually, or intellectually offended ?  ....or....If you are someone working in an area that is extremely (biologically or chemically) hazardous area for example, aren't you REQUIRED to wear protective clothing and equipment to protect yourself AND others by LAW and OSHA, and other regulations? ....so how come its insane to ask people to wear something that just might at least *potentially* protect ourselves, and ALL others from illness and death?   If an ambulance comes up behind us on the road, do we say, ahhhh fuc* that, i just don't feel like getting out of the way because it infringes on my space or rights?  Nope. We don't.
 

....Just food for thought,  
 

Hugs and kisses always allways and anyways,

..and....no matter what you believe... Safe travels and be well...  
 

 

AngelaGirl

-- Modified on 1/18/2021 2:18:26 AM

One motel-based/sometimes homeless provider I have seen several times in the last few years is an extremely aggressive top.  She insists on deep, very sloppy kissing.  As a safety precaution, I haven't looked for her since the start of the shutdown last March.  

END OF MESSAGE

I LOVE this, AngelaGirl!!!

I wish you were in my area (San Jose, CA) such that I could show more substantial appreciation
(I just followed on Twitter, in the off chance that you travel in future...)

I'm getting my first dose early next week as I recently turned 65, and hope to be out and about again a bit by March.

Except for one little foray to my favorite gal, which I much enjoyed  but worried over, it's been nearly a whole year of abstinence ... IDK how may good years I have left!

Hugs.

Bless you and thank you back for the kind words, love....
 

Much Hugz! ...and....
 

~Safe Travels Always~

Ahhwww.... what a sweetheart

Cannot thank you enough for your warmth and kindness, and.....thanks for the follow on my Twitter (although, i must admit it is abysmally under-used)....lolol...   : )
 

I do travel, but only by private/personal or exclusive invite (should you ever wish to consider that with me), i would adoringly welcome that as well, love !   : )  
 

 ...and Yayyyy...at least you have been able to schedule a vaccination...  and, well, hopefully you will still fee young of spirit and adventurous for as many years more as you wish to have !   Your warmth and welcome is heartfelt and kind.

 
...reach me anytime you may ever wish, give me a ring, email, say hello, its just always good to make new friends especially those of sincerely warm, mature, and open mind.  

 
Hugz!!!
Best always,

 
AngelaGirl

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYvv8_Ybi4M&t=5s  

Very informative thanks for sharing.