Pre-COVID, we all thought we had a pretty good handle on SB profile cycles. It was fairly consistent that more new profiles appear when:
1. College semesters start
2. College semesters end
3. Just before end-of-year holidays
4. Just before Spring Break, and
5. At a more micro-level, the 3rd or 4th week of the month, in anticipation of rent coming due.
The correlation of new to fake profiles stayed generally the same, with increasing new profiles, came increasing fake (or not serious) profiles as well. With COVID putting the entire planet on lockdown for what's approaching 2 years, all those somewhat predictable patters were tossed out.
The patterns in place today, if they even exist, are much harder to see. You can speculate on many reasons for this: Scammers see an opportunity to take advantage of "lonely" guys, more women willing to try sugaring due to lost jobs, support, opportunities - which may mean a "lower quality" of POT SB's as the noob's find out they really are not ready to sugar, more pro or semi-pro sex workers trying sugaring - including some percentage of the ROB community, and more mainstream press on sugaring - especially on Seeking, etc. Ultimately we will probably never really know which of these or any other motivation has impacted the sugar bowl.
I do think that Papa Sweet (sweetman) called out a general decline in the number of active profiles in general at least 4 months before anyone else (or at least I) did. In north Los Angeles County, my standard number of search results dropped from around 925 to under 600 between 2020 and today. And I have a sense that the overall percentage of those have a decreased amount of "viable" POT's. I now have to work through about double the number of POT's who message me to get the same conversion to BCD than I did pre-C OVID. All scammers? Not in my experience, discounting the flood of profiles and messages from South America (which some have noted may not all be scammers).
But the OP points out a very new and important skill that we all need to develop in the current environment:
I'll call it "The Sniff Test."
MDraft has spelled out his Sniff Test criteria for profiles to skip. I think it's excellent. I do something similar, though I've never articulated as well as he did. But there is a feeling I get, sort of a 6th sense for pussy, when looking at a profile. If it doesn't "smell" like I'm likely to succeed, I move on. And that has meant I've passed on profiles with seemingly gorgeous women who are generally local to me. If they message me, I usually do a one-message reply that weeds them out quickly. LA is a big, big place. It could take you over 90 minutes to drive from the South LA to North LA. I've learned not to bother with POT's that are more then a 30-minute drive from me. So I ask these POT's if they ever spend time in my area. The reply tells me a lot. And if I don't like the reply I just tell them good luck and suggest they contact me if they are planning on coming my way.
Life is good
The Cat