I have been seeing well meaning participants in this hobby using these words while explaining how they believe their choosing to see their regulars are all safe etc.

Not sure what the numbers are. People who are healthy have strong innate immune systems that will fight off the virus without having the adaptive immune system attack sars-cov2 (actual name of virus).  If the innate immune does not work the adaptive immune system will kick in. If that does not work people develop covid-19.  

If  you honestly believe every girl you see is honest and trustworthy than you shouldn' t be hobbying.  
Also, do you honestly believe guys will be honest when seeing a girl wether he's sick or has a std. Monger wants to get laid and only thinks with the lil head down below.  

No I am not naive enough to believe some guys and gals cannot be dishonest.  
If one doesn’t know whether he or she is infected and contagious (without symptoms of course)  - s/he can be honest and I mean truly honest - but that means nothing!!!

You don't expect me to believe that?  
I don't know what that means but I had to say it.  

I have news for you.  You can take a pound of Vitamin C and it will not ward off this virus.  Might give you a nice case of kidney stone though.  And being "healthy" won't ward it off either.   The only way to avoid it is to avoid people who have it.  And, without enough testing in this country, for most of us it's impossible to know who has it and who doesn't.

hobby schedule of 3-4 sessions a week since January.  During February and March, I saw 26 different girls.  I got tested after a few more on April 6th, and it came back negative.  I'm still doing DFK, BBBJ, DATY and CFS with each girl.  I think most providers understand this is their livelihood and are not going to take chances with guys who look or sound sick.  A few  have told m that they had guys who came to the door coughing and or sounding nasally, and the girl just told him to leave and closed the door.

They are using it to save people's lives from covid-19.  Go look it up and do some research and see. There was a doctor who was saved from death because of a Vitamin C treatment.

but no vitamin can save you once infected! Before infection it might have a preventative value - but research on that is mixed at best. Your point of strong innate immunity is the best one.  
I do have one question: the logic that more exposed one is more built up immunity the person has. That’s well accepted. But how much help that brings when dealing with a new or new strain virus? The reason I ask this by that logic all slum dwelling people in various countries will be least affected by any disease? No? Or, may be their better immune is compromised by high density living and thus more contagion?

-- Modified on 4/18/2020 5:34:16 PM

Have you been tested, do you have a fever, has the person been around someone that has Covid 19, and have you travelled to a high risk area? That's it!  IMO if someone doesn't know whether he or she is infected and contagious as you put it, how can they be dishonest? Those questions I put here is all someone can be honest or dishonest about.

If one doesn’t know if they are infected, trust or honesty is irrelevant.

An infected person may have no symptoms at all and may be shedding the virus. So you can get It from someone who seems to be well and also thinks they are.

One example of it working doesn't mean that vitamin C will prevent/cure those with COVID. There needs to be sufficient evidence out there that shows with a high degree of certainly that whatever drug or method that is used will be effective.

Trouble is, it doesn't work.

These are just a few.  They started doing in China and Europe.

I said, all things taken into consideration (the low numbers in California, my excellent health, and that Kgirls are rejecting people who appear sick, etc., leaving the risk pretty much in the asymptomatic stage) the risk level is tolerable for me, but perhaps not for others.  

I think at this point the risk of getting it and dying is 1 : 10,000

number coming from? Are you just saying "I think it's really small for me" or saying that is metric everyone else here should be using?

330 million Americans, 38,000 deaths.  Those are the odds as of this moment.

Your odds of dying by various causes:
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Heart disease, 1 in 6
Cancer, 1 in 7
Stroke, 1 in 28
Motor vehicle accidents, 1 in 88
Intentional self-harm, 1 in 112
Accidental poisoning and exposure to noxious substances, 1 in 130
Falls, 1 in 171
Car crashes, 1 in 303
Assault by firearm, 1 in 306
Pedestrian, 1 in 649
Motorcycle rider, 1 in 770
Accidental drowning, 1 in 1,123
Exposure to smoke, fire, 1 in 1,177
Pedalcyclist 1 in 4,717
Firearms discharge, 1 in 6,309
Air and space transport accidents, 1 in 7,032
Electrocution, 1 in 9,943
Excessive natural heat, 1 in 12,517

Seeing this, I feel even better about continuing to hobby during the pandemic.  From your chart, it looks like my odds of dying from the coronavirus are even longer than dying in a plane crash.  I haven't given up flying, so why give up fucking?  

If you don't live in the NYC area, make that 20,000 : 1.

Okay, that is a pretty simple metric. I don't think it really applies to many but that's just because I don't think those types of averages are all the meaningful. However, if you think of your self as a representative case for the USA population, go with it.

I heard in LA county 9.8 people in 10,000 are infected, or 1 in 1,000. No way 1 in 10,000 are dying! More like 3 in 100,000. I believe these k-girls in particular are being careful making your odds even lower, and lower still if you are younger, healthier etc.

It cuts many ways! Conditions matters.
Just consider this:
Probability of a woman getting pregnant  
“If she has sex five days before she ovulates, her probability of pregnancy is about 10 percent. If she has sex on the day of ovulation, or the two days before, the chance of getting pregnant is around 30 percent. These are average figures and depend on a woman's age.”
See how “if” part makes a difference
“The odds of becoming a lightning victim in the U.S. in any one year is 1 in 700,000. The odds of being struck in your lifetime is 1 in 3,000. “
Any probability calculations involving human make some assumptions such as rational behavior etc. Now if you make a habit of driving into a thunderstorm, what happens to these numbers?  
Hey I understand everyone is for himself - you can choose to drive into a storm or wait till it calm down or find ways to make you safe
There is a fine line between balls and brains - especially in this business lol!

Your basing your Covid-19 numbers on a two month window. I think your other numbers are based on a yearly average, no?
My suggestions is let's wait till this levels off, say in Aug and the number reaches say, 60k or maybe even more. But a better assessment would be to  lets let's see a year's total. Let's see if there's a spike in Nov. Then that number would be a fair presentation to which you can compare to other tragedies, don't you agree??
I think you're underestimating your Covid-19 figures....My guess is that once you do a yearly study of the Covid-19 death rate, it may not be as rosey a picture as you paint it....But shit, I ain't a math whiz

-- Modified on 4/19/2020 11:31:34 AM

If we go with the latest models (which are notoriously bad) then maybe twice as many deaths as it stands now by the end of the year.  So 5000:1 instead of 10,000:1.    But a better estimate of your chances would be to take the fatality rate in your own area versus population.  It is NYC that is skewing the whole USA.
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In Minnesota we have 6 millions people and 134 deaths so far.  That's 44,000 : 1.   Yeah the deaths might double or quadruple, but even then it is still 11,000 : 1.

Let me point out the flaw (one of many) in these odds.  

I didn't want to loose my place in line but just by looking at your death by Heart disease at 1 in 6. Then wouldn't the yearly death rate be like 55M a year, based on 330M?? This is where I'm lost.
The yearly death rate is 650,000 a year by Heart disease. Then using the factor of 330M. is the true death rate like 50-1?
Help me out here...

Please site where you got your numbers. I notice you have one for car crashes and another for motor vehicle accidents. What is the difference between the two?

These numbers are based on the number of "DEATHS" each year, not the number of the underlying population.

So I got those odds indirectly from a Forbes post, but the reference is to the National Safety Council (whoever they are.)  Direct link below.
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These are lifetime odds.  You only die once.   i.e. you will die of a car crash or you will die of CV-19, not both.
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Therefore these numbers are based on the ultimate cause of a person's death at the end of his arbitrary long lifespan.  One in six people will eventually die of heart disease.
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If we take all the people that died of CV-19 at some point in the future we will be able to say, looking back, that X in Y people met their end due to CV-19.  Lets say 100,000 out of 330,000,000.  That'd reduce to 1 in 3,300.
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But as I say, better to go by the CV-19 deaths in your area, as the risk seems to be geographically diverse.

I don't think that even gets one where they are actually making a realistic assessment of their own risk.

The difference is simple. ALL cars are "motor vehicles" but not all motor vehicles are "cars" just like all squares are rectangles, but not all rectangles are squares.

posted it.  You are absolutely right, you only die once.   However, GaG is also right that a year from now, while the odds of dying from these other long-standing causes will probably not chance much from year to year, there COULD be a dramatic change in the odds for coronavirus since that is something new.  I'm still going to keep hobbying.  Its not going to change that much.  To your point about individual states, my odds in California right now are 1 in 33,000, much better than the national average, just like Minnesota.  In NY, its around 1 in 1000, I believe.  

I"m sure you'll find other reasons to hate yourself G so don't worry.

A GaG points out car, motor cycle and then other motorized vehicles so ....

But that's not how LP is presenting the 10,000-1. It's not based on the number of death. Maybe his other numbers are,where he's comparing to the Covid-19 death rate.
His take is.."330 million Americans, 38,000 deaths.  Those are the odds as of this moment." He's taking the whole population into the equation, not by death. Hence the 10,000-1.
He's not presenting an apple to apple matrix....that's all I'm saying....Got it? Or am I missing something...still.
But I get what you're saying...Capiche

Sort of a mix of both now and future.  If you go out today your risk is today's spread.  If you go out next month, your risk then is next month's spread (could be greater or lower depending on disease vector.)  
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Don't forget you have a risk of picking it up other than escort visits, such as at grocery store, or whatever.
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I just noticed the chance of dying by lightning strike is 1 in 180,746.  I was actually struck by lightning (not directly, it hit my house and I was standing looking out the window with my hand on the sill ... where I got a shock.  The house filled with a bit of smoke from the electrical wires melting a bit.)   As they say, though, my chance of getting killed is still 1:180,764.

We are aware that not all motor vehicles are cars but his stats did not specify that. Example :" non car motor vehicle accidents."

Would you specify "including squares" or would you just assume people knew that you meant ALL rectangles?

He posted "  car wrecks" separately in that post even though that is not even mentioned  in the stats sited in a later post. His sited stats only mention motor vehicle accidents.

Let's assume just for the sake of argument that this is an annual stat and that the death toll for the year in question was a total of 4 million deaths from ALL causes.  

I can't believe you do not understand that stat guys do indeed put total numbers and break it down for clarity. Just like you did in the above post.

You aren't missing anything at all there, except for the fact I already had agreed with your point.

I copied and pasted from a Forbes article which I think was about 10 years old.  The link goes to current data (as far as I know) and may have changed categories in the preceding decade.

His comparable numbers are misleading....that's all.  
Ya know, you don't have to be tribal here...the PR board, ok...but not here. Jus sayin
And you could've made your case a tad more simpler....Remember the KISS method....lol

-- Modified on 4/19/2020 5:45:11 PM

And not one of these is contagious...

I was speaking with some veteran hobbyists as well as regular citizens lately wanting to hear different perspectives. Call me naive but my faith in the American way of life and determination to meet a problem like this head on is as strong as it can be. To paraphrase Winston Churchill, the Americans will always do the right thing after exhausting every other option. We’ve only just begun to fight this and we’re still searching for the correct path to take. I am hopeful and optimistic that before we know it there will be a superior detection process in place and ultimately a vaccine that will make this plague just a thing of the past. Yes our lives will change for the foreseeable future but my money is on American ingenuity, determination and money. The firm that does develop the first working vaccine will be richly rewarded and we can’t lose sight of that. Until that day arrives may we all be safe and healthy.

What a crock of shit!

I might BE an "old drunk" but that hardly means that I hang around old drunks. I much prefer hanging around young hotties, Yes, some of them might be drunk, but they are hardly old. lol

You're missing the point. Nothing to do with the math you suggest.

One think missing from this whole discussion is the factor of how exposed one is to the risk.

I find it highly amusing that someone who rides a NYC subway or a city bus has the nerve to "shelter shame" me for continuing to get my dick wet in a county with only a few dozen total cases.

I have been using lately.  While LA has a number of corona "hotspots", especially west of downtown LA where most of the Kgirl incalls are located, OC's confirmed cases tend to be slanted towards Santa Ana, the Hispanic area of OC, which has NO incalls that I'm aware of.  Consequently, the last four weeks, I have limited my hobbying to OC incalls.  So far, not one report of a girl needing to be tested.  

That's been my point the whole time. These big average statistics don't really inform anyone on their particular risks. But worse than that, in some of the comparisons the numbers are actually leading some to bad conclusions (apple-orange type problem it would seem) in terms of actually minimizing their risk or the potential risks they my end up exposing others to if that is also of concern.

Here in Minnesota they just said that 70% of deaths to CV-19 are related to long term care (old folks homes.)
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So if you aren't a resident, your risk of dying just got reduced by 70% from the already low risk.

for weeks . . . . the fact that a high percentage of these oldsters that died would have died this year anyway from the regular flu, or their underlying poor health.  For healthy people its not as deadly.  In fact, over the weekend Los Angeles tested 150 homeless people in a shelter and 70 tested positive, but only 3 had symptoms.  The other 80 homeless MAY have already had it and survived.  We don't know because the antibody tests are not widely available yet.  If homeless people, who notoriously do not take care of their health, are surviving in large numbers, corona is not the killer we thought it was.  I believe the percentage of those dying in California that are in nursing homes is even higher than 70%.