but unless I am simply buying lottery tickets, I like to pick a horse with at least a legitimate chance of winning.

One other strategy I will often employ if I think the favorite is over rated is to "key" my second or third choice, and box and wheel him, leaving the favorite out. If an "odds on favorite" runs completely out of the money you can catch a $5-10K tri that way, or a $50-100K Super fecta for the price of a ticket that costs maybe a few hundred bucks. The kicker of course, is that the favorite must run out of the money. Isn't that why they call it gambling? lol

Uncle Mo is tempting at 5-2, but I've got questions about the distance with him, so will probably pass.
Generally looking for horses with higher odds, especially @ Breeders Cup where so many long shots
have hit.
Glad I've got lots of time to study the form!