I don't think they'll get it. Besides, Asia held it in 2008. London will host the 2012 Olympiad, so it's unlikely that they would give it to another European city 4 years later. That leaves Chicago and Rio, both in the Americas. Chicago would be a good choice, but I don't think Brazil has ever hosted an Olympics, so Rio has a good shot at it.
It seems as though the world political sentiment is still trending towards negative on all things American these days. If you heard any of the comments from the recent World Economic Summit, it appears to be "Bash the US" season.
Besides that, Cynic has it right, Rio has a good shot. Brazil is an up and coming country on the political and economic stage. And I can't remember the last time a latin american city hosted - besides Mexico City in '68.
Funny, notice how I didn't mention anything about other factors contributing towards the city's bids. Things like: facilities, organizational capacity, security, sports tradition, etc. These are minors concerns, it seems, in the eyes of the IOC. Sadly.
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