San Diego
LOL
and thanks for the link. Love PK.
Nice to see you around here for a change, bud. 
It sounds like Robert Samuelson would shit his pants in envy.
How do you plan to spend your hobby bucks? I see four possibilities:
(1) Do without (yeah, as if that is really possible);
(2) Status quo (hobby like its 1999);
(3) Go low (take your chances with low priced unknowns, cruise Craigslist or take a trip south of the boarder); or
(4) Retreat to quality (may be cut back on quantity and focus on well-known, well-reviewed and reliable providers).
Are there other possibilities? What do you think makes sense?
I see plenty of nice providers offering specials.
With them finding dead bodies in TJ almost everyday. That may not be such an option.
I think there is plenty of hot bods to pcik from in town.
Lots of dead bodies in TJ, but how many are innocent Americans? Of those, how many are mongers?
Well, I myself have tried to follow option 4 on your list anyway, and I'll probably continue that way. Having said that: I've hobbyed more this year than I have previous years, and I will be cutting back somewhat next year. I hate to do it, but the reality is: this is a luxery for me; one I enjoy very, very, much, but a luxery none the less. I know the money I've spent this year on the hobby could have been applied elsewhere, and starting next year, some of it will be.
...well I only see my ATF anyways...so #1 is not an option. If I did like variety, #3 definitely would not work. So it is status quo #2 and #4.
-- Modified on 10/11/2008 8:43:22 PM
From the hobbyist perspective, the central question might be phrased as follows:
“How will I be able to continue as a hobbyist, given the present economic downturn and high escort prices?”
The U.S. is now in the midst of a massive deflationary spiral, which began in 2005 with the progressive collapse of housing prices. Earlier on this board in May of 2008, I suggested that the high escort prices were due in no small part to the bubble-like prices in So-Cal housing. The basic idea was that hobbyists were maintaining their lifestyle by treating their house as an "ATM", in which they periodically withdrew funds from home-equity loans. This could have accounted for high overall consumer activity in the southland, at the same time that salaries were stagnant since 2000.
Little did we know in May, 2008 that things would get dramatically worse, not only in housing but in the rest of the economy. Housing price declines in So-Cal are now in the range of 40%, employment is down, particularly in construction and lending, and now the declines in the stock market of ~40% are rivaling housing decreases. Of particular note is the drying up of all forms of credit, not just to the typical consumer (e.g., hobbyist) but bank-to-bank lending and even California state is having trouble borrowing.
This is now a deflationary environment in which virtually every asset class is suffering massive declines...one that hasn’t been seen in the U.S. since the 1930's. Those whose lifestyles were being maintained by loans (e.g., 1st mortgage, home equity, credit card, student) are being hard hit, as witnessed by the all-time high foreclosures in San Diego, which started with subprime mortgages but now extending to option arm loans. Interestingly, the recent declines in the stock market are hitting hard even the most affluent.
Already, we are seeing a massive downturn in all discretionary activities, and hobbying will likely also be affected. If I had to guess, I would speculate that prices charged by high-end escorts will decline by ~40%, matching housing price and stock market declines.
-- Modified on 10/11/2008 7:08:55 AM
the thing that really is fucked is that as this country turned away from a manufacturing base to maintain artificially low priced product inflow and create the consumer paradise it was (until now), one of the main ways that it compensated for this was by people making more and more money off of real estate.
The problem with this is that a home is a NECESSITY, and when you are using a basic necessity as something that is market manipulated into being out of reach for most people, eventually it WILL crash, even if it is artificially propped up by unrealistic credit and lending practices like what has been going on for years.
I read something once that showed how much the average income was in the 50's and 60's, and how much the price of a home was then (and that didn't even go into the effect of buying on credit), and if you compare that to now, you can see exactly why this is happening.
The thing is that people still think it will just go down a little and then come back up again...and they may be right. They just aren't looking at the fact that the average price of a home being over $300,000 is wrong in and of itself.
-- Modified on 10/11/2008 11:11:23 AM
To give you a reference frame for home prices and salaries in 1960 San Diego, an average salary for a non-professional would be in the range of $10-$12K. As low as this may seem, a very decent home in the in the San Diego State College area would run only ~$20-$25K. Circa 1960, everyone with a reasonable job [teacher, cop, fireman, even the milkman(!)] could readily afford to own a home, and this was based on only one spouse working.
Following this rather simplist formula with today's real estate prices but using 1960's lending practices, a ~$150K salary would be needed to buy a $300K home. However, the number of professions that pay $150K per year in S.D. are relatively rare.
With the massive credit contraction that we're now undergoing that threatens the U.S./global banking system, as well as mounting foreclosures that drive the downward spiral in housing prices, we seem to be headed for still lower housing prices in S.D.
MSD, your point about the U.S. turning away from a manufacturing base, and instead building an economy based on buying and selling homes, is a good one. Krugman of the NYTimes had an early editorial in 2005, in which he argued that this was essentially an elaborate Ponzi scheme...one that is unraveling today (see below).
"Safe as Houses" By PAUL KRUGMAN
"...I used to live next door to a Russian émigré. One day he asked me to explain something that puzzled him about his new country. "This place seems very rich," he said, "but I never see anyone making anything. How does the country earn its money?"
The answer, these days, is that we make a living by selling each other houses. Since December 2000 employment in U.S. manufacturing has fallen 17 percent, but membership in the National Association of Realtors has risen 58 percent..." (see below URL for rest of op/ed piece).
-- Modified on 10/11/2008 11:48:03 AM
and thanks for the link. Love PK.
Nice to see you around here for a change, bud.
Even the Fonz could have afforded a home during the '50's! LOL
And yes, Krugman is a national treasure... speaking of which, how does Treasury Secretary Krugman in an Obama Administration sound to you?
It sounds like Robert Samuelson would shit his pants in envy.
This has just been a remarkable year....
Three leading scientists have just won Nobel prizes.
Luc Montagnier and Francoise Barre-Sinoussi, who jointly discovered the AIDS virus in the 1980's while at the Pasteur Institute, were awarded this year's Nobel Prize for Medicine or Physiology.
The 2008 Nobel prize for Economics went to Paul Krugman of Princeton and the New York Times for analyzing trade patterns and economic activity.
And as for Samuelson, he reminds me of that old Peanuts strip where Lucy is teaching a 4-year old Linus on what eclipses are. She puts sun glasses on Linus, and says: "Look Linus, the sun's eclipsing". Then she removes them, and says: "Now the sun's stopped eclipsing". Charlie Brown, who has been watching this says: "It's going to take school 12 years to unlearn everything she's taught him".
Come to think of it, it will probably take ~12 years for people like Obama and Krugman to undo all the damage that the likes of Bush, Cheney and Greenspan have wrought on the U.S.
-- Modified on 10/13/2008 6:18:14 AM
After being with the Ladies that fit into category 4, it's hard to go backwards. I'd rather eat one quality meal a day than 3 McDonalds.
Unfortunately it looks like your attempt to purchase VIP membership has failed due to your card being declined. Good news is that we have several other payment options that you could try.
We thank you for your purchase!
Membership should be activated shortly. You'll receive notification!