OMG! Could he actually become President? All this reminds me of the late Walt Kelly’s comic strip “Pogo”. One of the classic quotations from the strip was “We have seen the enemy and it is us.” Wow, history does seem to repeat.
called Nevada for Bernie.
Bernie seems to have 40% of the vote and 47% of the delegates with 27% of the vote in.
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He's not cracking the needed 51% to win in Milwaukee on the first ballot. This is in Bernie friendly Hispanic area. Where is he going to push it over 51%?
There were 6 people on the ballot (not counting peeps getting well less than 1%) and Sanders has a little under 50% (47% as I type this) of the vote. That is outstanding as he is way outperforming the polls which had him at 32-33 or so.
No one will break 50% until the field narrows.
Now with 43% reporting, Sanders has 40% of the vote, which for some reason gives him 47% of the delegates.
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You need 50+% (I call it 51% for short) going into the convention to get the nomination on the first ballot. Until Bernie starts winning with 51% he will not be able to get the nom on the first ballot. So my question is in which states is he going to get 51% or more so he can win on the first ballot ... otherwise the dem establishment will eject him on the second ballot and pick their favorite.
Right now, "538" is predicting Bernie to end up beating Bloomberg, 1676-922, with Bernie obviously falling short of the 51%.
Do you really think with Bernie destroying Mini in delegates, popular vote and number of states won, they would dare pick someone else other than Bernie on the second ballot?
If the 538 numbers turn out to be anywhere near close to the final tally, I would dare say there would be virtually zero chance of that happening.
The only way the DNC would contemplate ripping it away from Bernie, if he had a plurality of delegates, (barring his health deteriorating, some massive scandal, etc) is if they could say it was "essentially" tied.
David Plouffe, Obama's senior advisor, has stated he believes that is defined as Bernie leading by about 50-100 delegates or so.
It's in the rules. Bernie needs 1991 delegates on the first ballot. On the second ballot 771 super-delegates get to vote AND all other delegates become un-pledged -- where the candidate will then need 2376 votes to win the nomination.
You don’t think David Plouffe knows the rules??? Of course he does.
But he also knows it is virtually impossible to use those rules realistically to steal an election from Bernie in the scenario 538 lays out. The damage that would do to the party could very well be existential.
There is no way the DNC will die on Mini’s hill. They will be forced to cave. Think about the pressure the Left will bring on them on TV, on social media, through newspaper articles, etc
Do you not know ugly that will get? You really think the DNC will disenfranchise all those new, young voters Bernie will bring and turn them off to politics for the rest of their lives? All those latino/black voters you mentioned?
You think the establishment will just suck it up when prominent white, black and brown liberals call them racist? Just last night Warren called Mini racist several times! What do you think would happen if the DNC even gave the appearance they would steal the election? It would be 100 times worse.
Remember, this is the party that tells us the electoral college isn't democratic, but now they are going to hand the nomination to someone who DIDNT win the popular vote and DIDNT win the delegate count and DIDNT have a majority of states in his column? An ex-Republican? With #metoo issues, and a history of homophobic and racist statements?
Think about this. Suppose 40 some electors changed from Trump to Clinton in December of 2016 and Hillary was declared the winner. You think you, me, GaG, FM and 60 some million other people in this country would just go on our merry way if someone told us “well, it’s in the rules?”
Ummmmmmm…..no.
Smoke filled rooms? Bring 'em back. There would be no Trump, that's for sure.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_candidates
Prior to 1978, there were still state conventions to choose nominees, but the Power Elite usually had a way to get their preferred and strongest candidates onto the final ballot. I guess two noteworthy losing choices were Barry Goldwater (lost to LBJ) in 1964 and George McGovern (lost to Nixon) in 1972. Starting in 1978, the conventions gave more and more irrevocable power to the people for nominee selection and made it harder and harder for the party big wigs to make the final decision.
OMG! Could he actually become President? All this reminds me of the late Walt Kelly’s comic strip “Pogo”. One of the classic quotations from the strip was “We have seen the enemy and it is us.” Wow, history does seem to repeat.
I think the primary system is goofy. People drop out because they run out of money. That's a bad way to pick the best candidate. Early voting gets people locked into a candidate that might stumble and then it is too late to move that vote over to another candidate, the early vote is thus thrown away. Caucus is too confusing. Who knows why they do it that way.
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I'd have a same day national primary. Candidates could debate for weeks before the primary. The voting would be multi-preference. You pick up to three candidates. (You can put the same name in all three slots.) Candidate who gets the most votes is the nominee.
I posted this previously: http://www.theeroticreview.com/discussion-boards/politics-and-religion-39/predicting-the-end-of-democracy-342285?page=
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http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/09/08/shawn-rosenberg-democracy-228045
"The Shocking Paper Predicting the End of Democracy" (Long article. Be prepared to READ.)
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... "What caused the stir? Rosenberg, a professor at UC Irvine, was challenging a core assumption about America and the West. His theory? Democracy is devouring itself—his phrase — and it won’t last."
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... "Democracy is hard work. And as society’s “elites”—experts and public figures who help those around them navigate the heavy responsibilities that come with self-rule—have increasingly been sidelined, citizens have proved ill equipped cognitively and emotionally to run a well-functioning democracy.
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..."The irony is that more democracy—ushered in by social media and the Internet, where information flows more freely than ever before—is what has unmoored our politics, and is leading us towards authoritarianism. Rosenberg argues that the elites have traditionally prevented society from becoming a totally unfettered democracy; their “oligarchic ‘democratic’ authority” or “democratic control” has until now kept the authoritarian impulses of the populace in check."
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... "“In sum, the majority of Americans are generally unable to understand or value democratic culture, institutions, practices or citizenship in the manner required,” Rosenberg has concluded. “To the degree to which they are required to do so, they will interpret what is demanded of them in distorting and inadequate ways. As a result they will interact and communicate in ways that undermine the functioning of democratic institutions and the meaning of democratic practices and values.”"
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Or, as has come up on this board before, we could just implement a voter qualification test. Some people are just too stupid to be reliably informed about legit issues, to recognize unfounded conspiracy theories as such, or to reason intelligently about important issues. There are illiterate deplorables on the left and the right. They vote for anything they think is anti-immigration or anything they think is pro-immigration. They vote for sound bites, cartoons, and empty promises without regard to the effects on Democracy.
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An educated electorate is the greatest defense of Democracy.
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The current primary process is terrible and needs to be changed. LP and Laffy made reasonable suggestions worthy of consideration.
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To repeat, "An educated electorate is the greatest defense of Democracy."
Literacy test? Good luck with that. You know you'd be branded as a racist for going anywhere near that.
Only Righties are branded racists for making those kind of suggestions.
If a lefty suggested that everyone needed to take a literacy test before voting, BUT Blacks needed to score an 80, Latinos a 90, White people a 100 and Asians of course would need 110 I am sure most Dims would be just fine with that. lol
He is a big "smoke filled room" guy, you know. lol
"In sum, the majority of Americans are generally unable to understand or value democratic culture..."
The things you claim to dislike are exactly what you are proposing, are they not?