First, the economy will seem to be recovering since everything around us will be collapsing. EU and China will be pushing in "stimulus" trillions to keep their zeppelins afloat and that will flow into the US economy via trade, equity and treasury purchases.

Second, Romney has already conceded that the economy is turning around. So he has to make the case that he would make it advance faster. That would be a hard sell for even a better salesman than Mitt.

Third, Obama has the "I got Osama Bin Laden" cache. He can pull that out every so often to remind people he gets things done.

Fourth, the healthcare reform is trickling into the American middle class. Far from aiming for the poorest of the poor, it was aimed at the working classes and they are going to find that many of them who were rejected for pre-existing conditions will be able to buy insurance due to the law. Many of their kids who have been staying home due to the lousy job market, or who do not have health coverage in their new job will be getting coverage. All of this will add up during the campaign season, and Mitt (or Newt or Sarah or whomever) who assails Obamacare will be hard-pressed to explain what they will do for those benefitting from it.

Finally, the Republicans are on the wrong side of history here. They overplayed their "free market" card and "Anti-Union" card. Both of those have led to their base losing its jobs to China and Vietnam and so on. That reality is finally hitting home in the Republican electorate. By continuing to shill for Tax Cuts (which incidentally is NOT Austrian School or Conservative, it is KEYNESIAN for Gawd's sakes!!!) and protecting banks, blaming government for everything but not taking any responsibility for their time in govt, they will get killed.

Not only will Romney or Newt or whomever get crushed in a landslide, both houses of Congress can go deeply Democratic this election year. That is the surprise no one is expecting, but it is coming.

DISCLAIMER: Of course, as with all prognostications, this is subject to no war in Iran or terrorist attacks on US soil or major American interests or other economic or geopolitical landmines we are not aware of yet. Obama will have to work hard to lose this election bcos the Republicans have a vocal and angry minority of the public spreading misconceptions about Obama and no substantive policies to back their candidacies. Obama played the birther nonsense to his advantage and he will play the current nonsense also the same way, ignore it till the accusers make laughing stocks of themselves. Not sure how much good it will do for the country, but it is what it is.

Many of you will want to reflexively object to what I have said above, take a few minutes to think before you respond!