There has been no shortage of dire warnings about the mounting US national debt, but President Obama is now offering a different assessment: no big deal.
"We don't have an immediate crisis in terms of debt," President Obama said in an exclusive interview with George Stephanopoulos for "Good Morning America." "In fact, for the next 10 years, it's gonna be in a sustainable place."
But there are two problems with that accounting:
First, the Congressional Budget Office projects a deficit of $845 billion - that's lower than the $1 trillion-plus deficits we've seen over the past four years and, as a percentage of the total economy, half the annual deficit of 2009.
But, CBO also warns that the deficit is projected to continue rising once again after 2015, adding a total of $7 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years.
Second, Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson are now saying we are nowhere near accomplishing the amount of deficit reduction needed to put the government on sustainable path.
"They haven't done any of the tough stuff, any of the important stuff," Bowles told me last month. "They haven't reformed the tax code…they haven't done anything to slow the rate of health care, to the rate of growth of the economy, they haven't made Social Security sustainably solvent. There's about $2.4 trillion more of hard work we've gotta do."
Allan Simpson went further, calling the failure to control entitlement spending "madness."
"Ten thousand [Americans] a day are turning 65," Simpson told me. "This is madness. And life expectancy is 78.1, and in five years will be 80. Who is kidding who? This will eat a hole through America."
By printing money, a government increases the total amount of money in circulation.
If that is not followed by an increase in production, there is more money to spend on the same amount of goods and services as before. Everything costs more, thus our money is worth less.
Yes, I know what inflation is. However, the price of goods is determined by the demand for goods. In a market contraction, demand contracts too. That is why we had DEFLATION in 2008.
Inflation isn't a bad thing. It depends on your perspective.
If you have a lot of savings (i.e. you're rich) than inflation is bad for you. It devalues your savings.
If you have a lot of debt (i.e. the overwhelmingly majority of Americans) then inflation is good for you. It devalues your debt.
When you have deflation, and you have a lot of savings, this is good for you. It increases the value of your savings.
But if you have a lot of debt, deflation is horrible. It increases the value of your debt.
We are 16 trillion in debt. Household debt is sky high. Corporate debt is sky high. Inflation is very, very, very good for us.
Yes, prices do go up, and that does devalue your paycheck, but that can be offset by raising wages.
Check the CPI. We've been under 3.5% inflation rate for the last 20 years. Even with QE1, QE2, and QE3, we're still only at 2.1% inflation.
(edit: gas prices are so high because of market speculation. Even our own GaGambler once said that speculation accounted for something like 25% of the price)
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