: Politics and Religion Discussion : Kamala has taken the lead in the polls!

RespectfulRobert 134 reads

posted 10 months ago

1 / 12

Granted it is only 0.2 so no one is jumping up and down but the change between her and Joe is staggering. She leads in 4 of the last 6 national, 5 way polls and for those that say only state polls matter, well, GA, NV, AZ are all toss ups and she leads in PA now, when Trump was up over Joe by 5 points there just a few months ago.
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Even Karl Rove is getting nervous as he is saying Kamala will open up a "solid" lead on Trump as the DNC and her VP choice obviously not factored into the polls.

willywonka4u 22 Reviews 27 reads

posted 10 months ago

2 / 12

If you say so.

END OF MESSAGE

RespectfulRobert 27 reads

posted 10 months ago

3 / 12

Better update that bogus map of yours Willy.

Latest poll in AZ has her up 4, GA and NV are exactly tied and she leads in PA. Do you ever get this right?

willywonka4u 22 Reviews 28 reads

posted 10 months ago

4 / 12

well, lets go through them.

“Latest poll in AZ has her up 4, GA and NV are exactly tied and she leads in PA.”

Arizona:

Public Policy Polling
July 29-30
618 RV
Trump 49, Harris 47

Public Opinion Strategies
July 23-29
400 LV
Trump 48, Harris 43

Bloomberg/Morning Consult
July 24-28
804 RV
Harris 48, Trump 44

This is the poll you’re talking about isn’t it? The same one that had Harris up 11% in I believe Michigan when she was behind 2-4% in every other poll? Remember what I told you about throwing out bad data? Here’s some related reading.

http://academia.stackexchange.com/questions/52477/is-it-unethical-unscientific-to-omit-outlier-data-in-a-publication-when-they-are

I’m not going to bother checking the other states, because I know what numbers you’re referring to.

RespectfulRobert 26 reads

posted 10 months ago

5 / 12

Per the RCP, the latest poll has Harris leading.

It's not "bad data" Willy, it's just a poll that hurts your partisan hackery. I noticed you dont bother mentioning the other states. I wonder why? Bottom line Willy: Even per Karl Rove said there has been a dramatic shift in the polls. Whether or not you want to face that reality, I really don't care as you often live in your own little bubble.
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I am just glad that you no longer have RFK Jr leading in any of them. That took a while for you to join the reality based community but I commend you for it. lol
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Maybe you will switch PA to blue now on your bogus map? Nah, the facts wouldn't help your cause any. lol.

RespectfulRobert 21 reads

posted 10 months ago

6 / 12

I'll help you out here.

This seems to be the most accurate and honest map, rather than your fantasy one:

willywonka4u 22 Reviews 25 reads

posted 10 months ago

7 / 12

Morning Consult is not known to be a very good pollster.

So Morning Consult works via online polling and then weights various things through an algorithm to try to correct for the goddamn awful bias you get with online polling. Interesting idea, since online polling is a fuck ton cheaper, but is it accurate? Nope.

538 now has pollster rankings. It’s based upon the historical accuracy of their polling and the transparency of their methods is also considered.

So is Morning Consult among the top 10 pollsters? No. Top 20? Nope. Maybe top 50? Nope. Top 100? Afraid not.

Democrat insiders know Harris can’t win. They just want to bullshit their donors into thinking she can win so they keep giving the Democrats money.

RespectfulRobert 23 reads

posted 10 months ago

8 / 12

So Morning Consult polls should be given no weight. Got it.

Their latest poll in PA has Trump beating her there by 2. So let's discard that one, per you. That would make her lead there LARGER than it currently is so why do you have PA as a Trump state on your bogus map? Explain please.

coeur-de-lion 400 Reviews 22 reads

posted 10 months ago

9 / 12

He's not saying give them NO weight, . . . .

He's suggesting that, if you are honest, you will give them the amount of weight you normally would to a pollster who is in 116th place for accuracy among pollsters.

willywonka4u 22 Reviews 24 reads

posted 10 months ago

10 / 12

This election really is driving Bob bonkers.

It’s like me posting polls has tapped into some kind of TDS hyperdrive that leads down a path where Bob sits in a dark corner eating dead flies and mumbling, “only Kamala can save us.”

durran421 32 reads

posted 10 months ago

11 / 12

Re: This election really is driving Bob bonkers.

100%
I was thinking the same thing! He'll be the guy we see crying on the news like his dog died when Trump wins.

RespectfulRobert 24 reads

posted 10 months ago

12 / 12

Why did you dodge my question about PA?

You ran away from your own bogus map. Props for that...I guess.