First, i want to give Obama credit.  He could have ordered the compound hit by drones or something like that, but he ordered the raid.  That could have gone very badly, but he did the right thing.

Second, I exclude Trump from my thoughts, because he was always a joke and not worthy of serious consideration.

That said, this was pretty much sui generis and may not apply to many other areas.  The election is a couple years away, and a lot could happen.

First, the end game in Afghan Land has to play out well.  If we Lose the Peace, that could be a bitch.

Second, like Clinton said, "It's the economy, stupid."  In six months, people won't be thinking of Osama.  But they will be putting gas in their cars.   They will hear tapes of Obama saying the price of gas went up too fast, and want to put a few holes in the frozen north and shallow waters.

Third, one good battle doesn't make one a great general.  Drones over Tripoli killing grandchildren will play badly.

Finally, we still have to see the end game in Egypt and a dozen other places.

As to the weaker ones, except for Trump,I don't know is a long shot.  Think Clinton when he started against Bush I's soaring popularity.

I rarely bet at the track, and if I do I want it to be closer to the race to see if the track is muddy.