New research explores why political violence is rising—and what we can do to stop it.
By Jeremy Adam Smith, Zaid Jilani | July 18, 2024
The attempted assassination of Donald Trump highlights a terrible truth: Political violence and support for political violence have been rising in the United States.
Trump himself may bear much of the responsibility for this trend. His entry into American politics triggered a sharp rise in violent rhetoric, which seems to have led inexorably toward violent actions. Acts of stochastic terrorism—that is, violence by individuals operating outside of any organization—have proliferated, with the attempted killing of Trump only the latest example. In fact, threats against lawmakers grew ten-fold since 2016. That trend crystallized on January 6, 2021, when Trump raised a mob of protesters who attacked the U.S. Capitol in an effort to stop certification of Joe Biden as president. Five people died that day, and four responding police officers committed suicide within seven months of the attack.
How many Americans endorse these acts? Approval for the January 6 attack has actually risen among Republicans in the past three years, from 21% to 30%, while those strongly disapproving dropped by almost 20 points. A PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll published in April of this year showed that one in five Americans believe that political violence can be justified at times—a result that is roughly reflected in recent peer-reviewed studies.
The good news is that four out of five do not approve of political violence. It’s also important to note one study that has criticized these results: When a team of researchers based at Dartmouth and Stanford asked 5,000 Americans about support for specific acts of political violence—as opposed to more general support—only 7% endorsed them. Unfortunately, however, even that relatively small group would represent millions of people.
So, what social and psychological forces are at work in our society and our minds when we move from disagreeing with political opponents to actually wanting to harm them? What can we do to coax people in a more peaceful direction? While the association between political rhetoric and violence is not perfectly understood, researchers are starting to map the pathways to pugnaciousness between groups of Americans. We know that political violence can spread, like an illness. Here are eight factors that make infection more likely—and steps we can take to stop it.
1. Aggression
In 2022, political scientists Lilliana Mason and Nathan Kalmoe published a book titled, Radical American Partisanship: Mapping Violent Hostility, Its Causes, and the Consequences for Democracy. With data from two different national surveys, they found that 24 percent of Republicans and 17 percent of Democrats believe that it is acceptable to threaten public officials; among Republicans who believe that Trump should have won the 2020 election, support for violence jumped 10 points. (Note: these numbers have been disputed by other researchers.)