Tariffs on Chinese products cause inflation across the board with American companies as well.
Personally I hope this is just a case of Trump making an opening gambit by trying to shake things up a bit, but I will admit I do find it a bit concerning if he sticks to his guns on this one.
I am actually a bit surprised that none of the Trump haters have jumped all over this as it's actually something worth legitimate criticism about one of his "policies" as opposed to the constant criticism about his tweets, Russia Russia Russia and racism that are just so much noise that many of us have tuned out just like elevator music.
I am betting that the finished version of what comes out of the White House next week is MUCH different than was is being speculated today, but I will concede I find it very concerning.
Funny, I had heard that something like this might happen from my Chinese counter part ...
I work with China, and with an already weak dollar. Products from overseas will now have their own tariff. It'll be a tic for tat not only from Asia but from Europe as well. Compound this with us getting out of the TTP was bad enough for me but this....We really don't hold the cards on this long run. Remember that all the goods with a "Made in China" will come with a "Tariff" price increase.
Look, trying to bring back coal, ok, it's good ink but the cost of steel and aluminum will be expensive. It'll affect the construction industry for one.
Did anyone noticed how the Dow reacted towards this?? a 420 drop.
I'm still trying to wrap myself around what might happen...
-- Modified on 3/1/2018 7:18:31 PM
but the departure of Porter led to the rise of the tariff crowd. I assume you saw what the markets thought about it.
I agree with you that the finished version will be different, and it will be insignificant to the Market. If Trump is fucking with anyone, it's Canada, Mexico and coming in 3rd South Korea. China steel imports is not even in the top 10.
Trump tried to slap a 292% tariff on Bombardier for selling planes at below market prices utilizing government subsidies. A U.S. trade panel ruled 4-0 on behalf of Bombardier. I don't see Boeing suffering.
Jerome Powell reiterated 4 rate hikes for 2018, and the market tanked on Tuesday and Wednesday. I tend to worry more about a rising rate environment than some spat on steel and aluminum, which is a rounding error on GDP.
One of my problems with Trump is he is way too public with shit. Could he have accomplished something behind the scenes, without the market meltdown? Look at the recent public White House meetings he had on guns. Did he say, "at least take the firearms first, then go to court". I realize he loves to publicize positions, and get attention, but that is not the way to negotiate. Now that I say that, I realize it's for his base.
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-- Modified on 3/1/2018 6:11:02 PM
I remember when I did this shit for a living I used to "trade the news", all news, any kind of news that would move markets. I used to remember waiting for certain guests to appear on CNBC KNOWING what they were going to say and what it was going to do to the markets, or at least what it would do to specific stocks. I am sure there are thousands of traders who are getting rich predicting and profiting from some of the outrageous things that Trump is known to say.
Here is where you are wrong though, this is exactly the way Trump negotiates, he keeps everyone else off balance and so far at least he has accomplished three of the most important things I voted for. He has undone tens of thousands of pages of Obama era regulations, He got tax reform done, and by eliminating the "personal mandate" he has most likely dealt ObamaCare a fatal blow as it's highly unlikely that ObamaCare will survive another challenge in the court since the ONLY reason it survived was by John Roberts twisting himself into a pretzel by arguing it was a "tax" and thus a constitutional act. Now that it's no longer a tax, no way does it survive with the current makeup of SCOTUS.
I do agree about rate hikes being the larger danger, but the issue here is not the relatively minor impact of slapping a tariff on steel and aluminum, especially if it's later modified to only effect steel from certain countries like China, my worry and the worry of the market is that it's only the beginning of a overly protectionist trade policy that will lead to higher inflation, higher interest rates, an overly strong dollar, and a complete undoing of all the benefits of tax reform. That's what the market is worried about, and rightfully so IMHO. What I predict, and what I am hoping for is that Trump's bark is going to worse than his bite and that what actually occurs is much less draconian that what is being discussed today. If and when that happens watch the market pop 500 points or more in mere minutes.
By your post here, its clear you know nothing about economics, let alone “doing this shit for a living”. If you ever actually did, its abundently clear why you no longer do that. Do you even know what level two access is?
Trading on the news based on whatever pundit is on some random channel violates every rule of professional account investing, not to mention a fiduciary duty to engage in prudent investment practices you may have neglected to any pigeons you were bilking at the time.
Remember your bet you tried to bully me into about fed rate hikes? The one you would have lost?
“Minor impact on slapping a tariff on steel and aluminum”? You do realize that trade tariff wars by their very nature require continuously raising tariffs on more and more imports right? You do realize that America is the largest importer of steel and aluminum in the world right? We need that stuff to produce any goods we would be trying to sell to the world which will surely slap tariffs on those goods. The exports of raw materials and goods we are successful in selling, wood, food grains, Caterpillars and such would plunge along with their prices going up. The cost of manufacturing our companies would have to pay would skyrocket, which means lost jobs, higher prices and basically head us into economic collapse. Thats been the result of every trade war ever tried in history to all involved. But somehow President Dumbshit has a plan that will work?
Trump’s thinking on this is moronic and once again plays into Russia’s hands. How can you not fucking see that Mr. Pro investor?
First off lets deal with the bet you claim you would have one, The beauty of the internet is that you can actually PROVE it when someone is either wrong or lying, here's a link to the bet I proposed and I CLEARLY would have won.
Secondly anyone who even knows what level two is must know the difference between trading and investing, or I suppose you really could be THAT fucking stupid, but that would put you in fg territory. I never claimed to be a "pro investor" where the fuck did you get that idiotic idea? I was one of the early SOES traders and I only traded for my own account, nothing makes you learn faster than risking your OWN money.
Don't you ever get tired of being wrong? You haven't gotten a single thing right in well over a year, but that doesn't give you license to lie about it.
As for your miopic view about world trade, I have not the time, the patience, nor the inclination to take you to school on yet another issue when you will simply lie about it anyhow, even when the proof is there for all to see, like our proposed bet from last year which you so wisely chickenshitted your way out of.
I seemed to recall I was at three you were at four. But after you actually spent the time, days it seems, to find that old thread, you were right.
You are still an idiot in investing or trading or whatever you call it by betting on the news and not the financials. While you may have differing opinions than I do, that doesn't make me wrong. It makes you a narcissistic blow hard just like your daddy figure President Shithole.
Betting on what happens to a particular stock over the next 3-4 MINUTES has nothing to do with it's financials.
The biggest losers in the trading world are those who confuse trading with investing. They are two entirely different things, I would honestly expect someone who has even heard of "level two" to know this, but once again I guess i am giving you too much credit because your post your inanity in complete sentences.
As for finding that thread, it took me less than five minutes to find it. Ask BPS on how to do a message search if you are so befuddled how to find an old post, he does it all the time, do you really think he spends hours trying to find a single post from five years ago or longer. Just because YOU don't know how to do something doesn't mean it's really that hard to do.
At least you can finally admit with the facts right in front of you that you've been wrong, I know some other people on your side of the aisle still insist they are right even when the proof is staring them in the face. So kudos for not being quite as dishonest as LTM or fg.
BTW did you see the market today? Not quite as good as I predicted, but still pretty damn close to what I said last week was likely to happen this week.
LOL at you trying to educate me on prudent investing. You are a well known scammer and have nothing to say here. The age old adage thats been around since the early days of day trading is “The difference between an investor and a day trader is one second.” You probably wont ever figure that out.
As far as trading on the news, what is now known as “psyche trading” among the pros, sure lots of day traders do that, but that doesn’t make it smart. A day trader that does both buys and short sales in a day is either working too hard to make money, but is more likely trying desperately not to lose it. Probably betting on the news.
Day trading on the fundamentals and financials is so much smarter. I’m not going to spend time explaining that to you other than to say there are certain days during the year in any position that a smart day trader knows when and what to do. Trying to guess what a stock will do because some pundit on CNN is making a statement is at best guessing. A good example from last week is GE. Some news writer wrote an article suggesting that Warren Buffet buy GE. That got turned into Buffet was going to buy it. GE bounced for about a second causing some to short sale it. Problem was, because GE is fundamentally sound, it never went back down. The short sellers took a beating.
Thank you Marikod for proving my point. You made an emotional decision to sell your shares in Wynn, a stock you've held for years and you lost money. Not very prudent. As far as the other guy’s bragging he lost 80% on a stock and presumably was able to absorb it? Thats just bragging about the size of your dick and certainly does not show any kind of investment prowess.
Did you just call GE "fundamentally sound" and that the short sellers took a beating??? That is one of the funniest (and dumbest) things I have heard in a LONG LONG time. Here is a chart on GE, please tell me how the "short sellers got killed" on an issue that is trading only a few cents off it's 52 week low?
To put GE into context as being "fundamentally sound" it has lost a whopping 50% of it's value over the last 12 months and is in danger of being taken out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. If you want to look at it over a longer term let's say you invested a dollar in GE twenty years ago, your dollar would only be worth about fifty cents today, in the meantime the rest of the DJIA has tripled in value over that same time frame.
Jinxie, you might be an idiot, but you certainly are good for a laugh, and I am sure you make Mari feel quite good about himself knowing that someone else can be even more wrong about the market than he, and do it consistently. I am trying to remember the last time you got something right and for the life of me I can't remember it EVER happening, although I know even blind squirrels occasionally find an acorn so I am sure you must have been right about "something" over the years, I just can't honestly remember the last time it happened. lol
It’s no use. You are a complete idiot when it comes to investing or trading assuming you actually think there is any real difference. I get that you think there is, but it’s really just technique and process.
Yes, GE is in fact fundamentally sound. What you are talking about has nothing to do with that. Chart prices? Seriously? Trading or investing on chart price is randomly idiotic. That’s why I’ve made tens of thousands of dollars on trading GE over the years. But that’s because I know what I’m doing. You clearly don’t.
Let’s just leave it at you have an opinion you try to sell as fact. If that works for you, fine. I know for a fact I am doing so much better than you financially. Plus, I know I’ve never resorted to bilking old ladies out of their savings on phoney ponzi oil schemes, which is pretty much what your reputation is in that sector.
Is that the same GE that
-is under investigation by the SEC for improper revenue recognition practices;
- that may face legal action for the sale of subprime mortgages prior to the financial crisis;
- that just restated two years of earnings;
-that took a multi billion charge for insufficient insurance reserves;
- that cut its dividend in half a few months ago-
-that bought high and will have to sell low if it can sell at all?
-that paid for a “chase plane” to follow its CEO when he jetted around the globe;
-is subject to more class actions than I can count?
-saw its stock price collapse in one year?
Please stop digging, Dude. I am delighted that you have made “tens of thousands of dollars” trading GE. By contrast, I have lost that much because I rode GE up to 30 and down to pretty close to my basis because I also thought GE was “fundamentally sound. “ I was pretty wrong but apparently not you.
Of course, I am the only one on the P & R Board who actually loses money in the stock market. But really, you are sounding absolutely foolish on this one.
Yes. I get there are plenty of folks that are very concerned about what is happening to GE these days. But what you posted there has nothing to do with its fundamentals. Immelt is gone, it has a very good management team now lead by John Flanery, a very capable and intelligent director. GE has a solid book of orders in its core industries - jet engines, health, and now alternative energy solutions. Sadly, no more light bulbs, but that was only about 2% of its business. It jettisoned its financial arm in 2015. Restating earnings is not a bad thing and only helps it get its feet back on the ground. It employs 300,000 people.
One of its greatest challenges near term will be Trumps insane tariff war, but that will hurt American industry and economy across the board. Oh but wait, he’s going to start a trade war “lovingly”. Does anybody with a brain even support this dimwit anymore? The GOP in general sure doesn’t with Paul Ryan jumping off the Trump bandwagon. In fact I think at this point, it will be Paul Ryan on the GOP ticket in 2020, not Trump. But I digress...
As a contrarian, I am buying GE now as a long hold at about $14.50 or less. Predictions have it at about $20 in about two years. That’s about a 27% profit. Not my best, but in my view a solid bet. Do you have something against making money? Of course I could be wrong and take it the shorts, but I don’t think so. Just my opinion, not my advice.
based on the news. You may even have heard the cliché “buy on the rumor, sell on the news.” One subset of those market participants who call themselves traders – the day traders – typically buy and sell in a single day and try to make small profits each day by placing bets on an index and the trend for that day. They do not care about “financials.” The PE ratio, the company’s debt, the cash flow etc are irrelevant to their decisions.
Even buy and hold investors like myself sometimes have to make decisions solely on the news. For example, I had long planned to sell Wynn as soon as I anticipated Steve Wynn might die. Some experts assigned a 20% premium on Steve as a key man. But I did not see the sex harassment claims coming at all and was caught flat footed. I sold but at a 4 percent loss. Still, with the stock down to the low 160s and class actions sprouting like weeds, I am happy I got out when I did.
So I think you are being a bit harsh on the notion that making decisions on the “news” is idiotic. Is buy and hold the best approach? Of course, over the long run - but, over the short run, traders can make money trading on the news.
but ST C would never forgive me if I neglected to include this chart.
If someone had bought BAC twenty years ago and held it until today, or if they had bought it around 15 years ago like "someone" we all know at about the same price, they would be down roughly 50% for their efforts. Is buy and hold REALLY the best strategy? I guess it all depends on when and what you buy. lol
but back the difference between investing and trading. Mari is more correct than Jinxie, (as if it is even possible to be more wrong) but Mari also really doesn't get how what it now popularly called "day trading" actually works. Day trading isn't about buying in the morning and selling in the evening, there are thousands of different trading strategies that include gap trading, momentum trading, technical trading, and people who like me who trade on "news" The market runs on emotion as much as anything else, why else would the markets swing hundreds of points in a single day when NOTHING really changes regarding the underlying fundamentals. I am sure there are thousands of traders making a very good living who trade strictly on Trumps Tweets as Trump has the ability to move markets.
another misconception about so called "day traders" is the length of time a trader will typically hold a position. A lot of traders don't hold their positions more than just a few minutes or whenever they can see the money flow either increase or abate depending on whether they are short or long. Traders are no more loyal to a particular stock than a sports better is to a particular team. It's quite common for a trader to alternate going both long and short on the SAME stock several different times in the SAME day. The fundamentals obviously don't change several times a day but the money flow and the stock price will most certainly go up and down throughout the trading day.
I guess that makes Jinx the "Idiot".
Speaking of "NEWS", you can probably map the time Paul Ryan talked about Tariffs, and the market bottom for the morning. It turned on a dime.
Mari.....when did you originally buy Wynn to have a 4% loss? It's been in an uptrend for over 2 years. Stock has stabilized since the harassment claims. I just got a bullish hammer buy signal on Wynn today @ $163.19, and that was $4 higher than its low of the day. Again see Paul Ryan. No, I did not act on it. There goes my technical view versus a fundamental view. My Bruins need help. At least I can cheer the negative news Sean Miller is getting. Recruiting is a lot easier with him in trouble.
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The stock went down 10% in one week, and by the time I decided to pull the trigger I think I was down 4% from the price before the news. I’ve owned Wynn for years with a basis between $100 to $125, so I did not have an actual loss. But the combination of the investigations into his gambling license and the class action lawsuits were something I could not quantify. I also feared Macau would investigate and that would kill the stock. Added to LVS which has a much better dividend anyway but mainly I am holding most as cash.
The good news for you St. Croix is that you are going to have a lot of free time on your hands next week, since UCLA isn’t going to make the tournament. Not too late for you to get on the Duke train. But tell me what I should do with this cash – no, no more Pro Shares Vix – that was the fastest I’ve ever lost 80% of my position in my life LOL.
There must be some "NEWS" driving this stock higher. Damn, like I said 2 days ago, I saw a buy signal @ $163 and change and didn't act on it. That would have been a nice trade based on "NEWS". You gotta tell me when you're selling so I can buy (lol).
Oh by the way, your argument on GE was spot on. Perfect definition of a "Falling Knife" and dead money.
And yeah, no more Pro Shares VIX, or ANY Pro Shares ETF for that matter. I don't even fully understand these funds, especially the fact that the funds get reset every day. If you have a death wish for Pro Shares, think in minutes, or at the max, a couple of hours. Do not hold them overnight.
Wynn hit 188 today plus they increased their dividend.
As to the Pro Shares Vix Short, that was actually a great trade until it wasn’t.
How could anyone foresee that the VIX would double in a day? It had NEVER done that before. No more inverse derivatives for me.
I currently do not subscribe to this site. I assume there are other sites like American Bulls. Within the first 10 seconds, you will realize this is a "trading" platform based on technicals and charts. You can still play around and enter a symbol next to the search button, but understand the data is usually end of day. Obviously, one of the values of platforms like this is the instantaneous updates during the trading day.
Again stay away from ProShares. Volatility can be fun, but when you are dealing with leveraged funds, if you blink, you could lose a lot.
Could luck to Duke in the Dance. I have no expectations for UCLA.
http://www.americanbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=WYNN
He's been too busy getting his holes stuffed by smelly Georgia rednecks to notice Trump's loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong list of enormous blunders over the past year.
Only reason I can think of that he'd *just* be getting around to being concerned.
Look at the lapse of the Softwood Lumber Agreement (SLA) as a model of how this administration is working. Slapping tariffs on 'competitive' imports, this one being wood and wood products from Canada. Which is screwing with many United States based businesses. Big winners and big losers,
I thought Alcoa was stockpiling a shit ton of aluminum.
Tariffs on Chinese products cause inflation across the board with American companies as well.
If he does this, I believe that he wants to create the most chaos possible. Just the way he is built. Which means no exemptions, which means Canada is included. We are your biggest supplier. But we also buy 50% of all your steel exports and have a $2B trade deficit with the US in steel.
For me, this will cause a change in my behavior. I will never buy another American vehicle, bottle of wine, article of clothing, etc. I won’t be alone, and the Canadian govt very likely targets your steel industry, and others too. How does anyone come out a winner here? When you start damaging your best friend and neigbour, expect the backlash to be severe.
Expect a ton of unintended consequences to your ag industry and others. How is BMW and VW going to react if he follows through on slapping tariffs on their vehicles, ESPECIALLY with all the American workers they employ.
I also expect him to kill NAFTA, which is a step that is almost universally opposed by US business groups.
Someone needs to control this guy, if this is the path he is really on. Easier said than done. The guy needs an enemy - real or imagined. It’s how he is built, and I don’t think he gives a damn about the economic damage he is about to unleash. As long as he has a fight he can tweet and crow about. Scary.
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-- Modified on 3/4/2018 8:35:19 AM
I was at a meeting with Trudeau, and he is out of his league. My guess, though, is Trump is setting-up a negotiating position. So far over in crazy territory, that when you end up in negotiations you're happy to get whatever you can.
During the introduction of Trudeau, a speaker said, "Canada is like family, because we certainly wouldn't treat our friends this way".
Who give a shit about the parasite to the north? For Godsakes, they are a pimple on our economic ass.
Sit down, shut up, take advantage of FREE protection from the assholes of the world and proximity and access to the greatest economic engine that the world has ever seen. All while being free to bitch and whine like the little lib bitches you are.
All respect and honor to the Canadians who died bravely on the beaches on D-day.
Fucking enough already!
After thinking about it for a minute or two, they said, "Fuck this shit". Hopefully now people will take trump with a grain of salt, mostly alot of BS for the camera's. Even the market figured him out. Just as with gun reform, Daca, and now trade...nothing will happen.