My sense of the state of the race is based upon there being a significant bias in the polls. As in Democrats are over represented. Now I fully admit my bias in this regard, but there’s very good evidence this concept holds water.

 
So let’s look at Minnesota. Most pollsters have this state as for sure going blue. If I say Trump could win Minnesota that’s just wishful thinking on my part. Well, is it?

 
In 2016, the polls had Clinton up +6 to +11. But what happened on Election Day 2016? Well, Clinton won the state…by only 40,000 votes. That translates to just 1.6%. The last poll before the election had her up 11, but she only got 1.6.  

 
At this moment, Kamala is only up +3 in Minnesota. Now if the quality of the polling hasn’t changed since 2016, then Trump will win Minnesota.  

 
So what do you guys think? Has the quality of the polling improved since 2016?