But the larger it is, the less important sample quality is.
…but funny nonetheless. LOL.
David Axelrod just said the other day that if the election were held today, Trump would win.
The poll is unscientific, but still, 4.7 million is one hell of a large sample size. 74% for Trump.
Not only are these Elon followers, it includes people who cannot vote. It includes those under 18. It includes those from other countries. It includes those not registered. It doesn't matter how big the sample size. Without intention to get a reasonable sample of actual voters and an actual fair sample of locations, party affiliations, etc... it means zippo.
Is that like when the NYT polls New Yorkers, where Biden got 60% of the vote in 2020?
Sure, if the NY Times only polled NYers it would be good for only one thing. That's New York. But Twitter followers is even more useless. At least NYers are actual US voters. Twitter can be an 8 year old kid or some rando living in Russia.
All online polls are unscientific. The biggest reason is because they’re the opposite of random. It requires an interested user to engage. In that sense it’s useful perhaps in gaging voter enthusiasm. What is significant is the sample size. All polls have to be random to be accurate, but this is because sample size is always going to be limited. 5,000 is a massive sample size for a poll. But this poll is currently at 5.3 million. Now I don’t know sampling and statistical math off hand to know if a sample that large can over come the need for a sample size to be random. Everyone Twitter gets Elon’s posts unless they block him regardless if they follow him or not. This has been the case for all CEO’s or owners of Twitter/X. According to Elon, there’s 39 million Democrats on the platform and 32 million Republicans. And if Trump is as hated overseas as Democrats claim, then that should hurt Trump. On the other hand, Democrats are only good at one thing: staying in their own bubbles and ignoring everything that contradicts their point of view. That’s a big reason why they’re so batshit insane. So many of them might very well do everything they can to ignore everything Elon has to say even though these days he posts more about free speech rights in Brazil and the UK.
But at least as important is the quality of the sampling group and some pollsters have a better methodology which leads to better accuracy.
But the larger it is, the less important sample quality is.
OMG so much here to pick on. Scientific is important for it to be fair. And, I know you said it wasn't, so I'm not accusing you differently. But the fact is that makes it fodder. It's a gibberish post. It's meaningless.
If you walk into the DNC and poll everyone about the election, it's a shit poll no matter how many people respond. The number of responses matters to a point. Who makes up those numbers must to factored in. Otherwise, it's pointless.
And you are slightly wrong about everyone getting Elon's posts unless they block him. You see, when you go onto Twitter you have two options. For You and Following. For You is basically suggested people based off who you follow. This is where everyone would see Musk's posts. But Following is just those you follow. Myself, and many others, intentionally only pay attention to Following. I have no interest in all the randos Twiiter suggests. When I go in and out of Twitter, it always takes me back to Following because that's where I left off. So, unless I toggle over to For You, I never see suggestions or Musk.
Now you know who for sure sees Musk? His followers. For them, it doesn't matter which view they choose. You know how many followers he has? Over 194 million. 5.3 million is about 3% of that number. I'm going out on a limb here, but I'm guessing by far they make up the majority of those who actually responded to Musk's tweet. I mean honestly, how many of us lefties do you think would bother engaging with a Musk post? You are not really that dumb to think it's a decent amount, are you?
And, you believe every shit stain that comes out of Musk's mouth? Like he knows for sure there are 39 million dems and 32 million Republicans on Twitter? Oh please tell me where on Twitter users identify their party of choice?
Oh and some more good data for you. Twitter has about 77 million US users. That means over half of Musk's followers are international.
And wait wait... So you think because democrats claim Trump is hated oversees it must be true? And you agree with it too??? Bro. Really? Since when do you so easily agree with something dems claim? And again, just like with US followers, you really think international people who hate Trump are the ones likely to engage with a Musk post?
Okay, take me. Even if I did see a Musk post, I would never waste my time on it.
Nope. I am not done. You actually trust Musk? I know. I know. Of course you do. You'd lick his balls just like you lick Trump's balls. This guys doesn't have an honest bone in his body. There is nothing stopping some Musk ballsuckers from mass creating profiles to enlarge the number of responses.
This has been fun. I really good laugh. I'm sorry you're this dumb. Life must be hard. Or maybe not. Maybe ignorance is bliss like they say.
“If you walk into the DNC and poll everyone about the election, it's a shit poll no matter how many people respond.”
No, it’s not. Do you know why? Because you can’t fit 5.3 million people in the DNC. The sheer size alone forces it to be somewhat representative of the population. This, of course, assumes that only registered voters in the USA respond, which we can’t control for here.
“And, you believe every shit stain that comes out of Musk's mouth? Like he knows for sure there are 39 million dems and 32 million Republicans on Twitter?”
I’m guessing he can back it up. He has data on age of users as well. Useful info to have to attract advertisers.
“So you think because democrats claim Trump is hated oversees it must be true?”
No. But it would defeat your argument that overseas participants would throw this off in Trump’s favor if you believe this premise to be true.
“You actually trust Musk? I know. I know. Of course you do. You'd lick his balls just like you lick Trump's balls.”
Some people have better track records than others. I think the “crazy right wing conspiracy theorists” are now up to 47-0. And the standard Derp State talking heads haven’t been right about a thing since they said Iraq has WMDs. So this has nothing to do with “ball licking”, as you put it. It has to do with building a model that provides reliable outcomes.
Suppose we built an AI designed to tell people the truth when you ask it questions. If that AI just repeated what Elon would say verbatim vs an AI model that would repeat what the MSM would say verbatim, then which one do you think would produce true answers more often?
Now suppose there’s a pair of electrodes connected to your own balls. Those electrodes are attached to an electrical cord. There’s two sets of electrical outlets. On each set of outlets one is marked “A real electrical outlet powered by 120 volts.” The other is marked “a fake electrical outlet that’s not connected to a power source.” One set of these outlets were labelled as such using the Elon Musk powered AI. The other pair was labelled as such using the MSM powered AI.
You MUST plug the power chord into one of the 4 plugs. Which one do you choose?
Holly shit, idgaf if it's 50 million. Your theory that if it's big enough it must to be right would get you kicked out of a PhD program at a For Profit School. They wouldn't want your money out of fear you getting a degree from them would weaken their schools reputation. Quality always matters. Size does not eventually make quality not matter. That's just stupid talk.
I mean for fucks sake. You have a guy with over a hundred million followers who are not even living in the US, and you are over here claiming that since it's 5.3 million it must be a reasonable and fairly distributed sampling. You have no idea, absolutely zero, how many of these are actual US voters. What part of this is not crystal clear to you?
You admit that you don't agree that Trump is hated oversees, but your counterpoint is that if I do it discredits my argument. Wait what the huh for real real did you just fucking say? You are spinning a circle around yourself. First, I never said that I believe Trump is hated oversees. That was just you caliming dems say that, and therefore I must think it. Well, newsflash, I don't. I don't think he's loved either. Just like in the US, he has his crtics and he has his supporters. I'm sure there are many many millions on both sides. Certainly enough to scew up a stupid Musk Twitter poll.
Now, clearly you are a Musk fan and fond of him. This makes sense. He's very much a friend to Republicans and Trump. Therefore, any shit that spews out of your mouth with his name attached to it is biased. And, it's meaningless. He's a rich dude who doesn't know how to stay in his lane. He knows nothing about polling. He knows nothing about news reporting. He knows nothing about politics. And, he has driven Twitter into the ground. The fucker managed to lose about a million users. Now that's quite the feat.
And your ending! Your mother fucking ending!! It's a rambling that I am sure would make Fester proud. But that's all it really is. It's stupid. It means nothing. And, it's more stupid. I won't address it further, because it's just too stupid.
That was a beautifully constructed thought experiment. Your protests tell me though that we both would pick the same plug and we both wouldn’t get shocked. I’m just honest about which plug I’d use and why.
The sample size is meaningless if the poll is unscientific. Duh.
…for the sake of argument that we could control against anyone outside of the USA, and the poll got up to 200-250 million. Would it still matter about sample quality. Think carefully, the total US population is 330 million.
Elon asks people who they support:
So more pointless words on an already pointless thread. It's quite obvious this was meaningless from the start. Who people think would win would be just as meaningless. A poll like this is just fodder. We all know this, or at least I'm assuming we do. Maybe not Willy. I understand very well that the one thing every poll has in common is that it is too close to know for sure. That's the foundation of my point and what makes this whole post meaningless. Maybe you did not get that?