Are as follows according to USA Today:
◾ The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections.
Didn’t the GOP win the House in 2022?
◾ The sitting president is running for reelection.
Nope.
◾ The White House party is avoiding a primary contest.
Well, that’s a red herring if there ever was one.
◾ There is a third-party challenger.
There’s always a third party challenger. Cornell West and Jill Stein run every year now. I guess he means if there’s a major third party candidate.
◾ The short-term economy is strong.
It’s quite weak.
◾ The long-term economic growth has been as good as the last two terms.
Hammered by inflation for the last 4 years.
◾ The White House party has made major changes to national policy.
Jailing opponents seems like it’s pretty major.
◾ There is sustained social unrest during the term.
Pretty endless protests over Israeli
◾ The White House is untainted by scandal, the incumbent party is charismatic.
Hiding dementia is just one of many scandals.
◾ The challenger is uncharismatic.
Trump has been in show biz all his life.
◾ The incumbent is charismatic.
Cackles is typically pretty boring.
◾ The White House party has a major failure in foreign policy.
Two wars broke out on their watch when they inherited world peace.
◾ The White House party has foreign policy success.
They gave our weapons to the Taliban and got US soldiers killed.
Maybe there is something to Lichtman’s model. But it means Trump is going to clobber Harris.
