I'm gonna stick with my predictions.  I think Israel is gonna whack Iran within---6 weeks.  I'm trying to think thru all the ramifications that US politics is having on Israel's decision making and how their strike on Iran would effect US politics.

I think things will really be crazy all over the world for  at least a week after the strike.  But I'm hoping that there will be major stability and calm after the initial shock and chaos.

Somehow, Israel has to factor out of their process what's going on in the US.  Or maybe factor it in and do the strike right during the GOP convention to catch Iran off guard.

Israel will make and carry out it's decision w/o a billionth of a naonsecond's worth of consideration of possible effects upon the US.

the unofficial deadline for is an Israeli strike is sometime before the Presedential election.  a McCain victory, since he's presumed to be Bush's 3rd term, and hence will be in thrall to the NeoConMen who gave us Iraq and are doing their damnest to gin up and give us Iran, lessens the probability of an Israeli attack on Iran.

So, can McCain run with this slogan : Vote For Me and Prevent Israel From Nuking Iran?  Don't exactly sound like a winner to me.

Appx 11 weeks to the election.  Your estimate of 6 weeks puts us in the first week or so of October.  We shall see.

-- Modified on 7/23/2008 12:18:07 PM

Here's another dead certainty. Israel with do whatever they have to do to ensure their survival, and worry about consequences to the U.S. later.
jhb

It was the Clinton years the last time the unrest over there was at a high enough pitch that a revolution was possible. Things may be too cool for it now. But you can be sure that right now, somebody from the US is telling the non-crazies that the clock is ticking, if you want to stay non-blown-to-shit, you better put the run to the flakes.

What will Iran do if attacked? The same thing the Syrians and Iraq did when their nuke plants were blown up. Nothing. Deny it happened.

"later" is quite the improvement over the usual "never."

If Iran just shut the f*ck up after getting whacked and all the other islam and non-islam countries just rattled their swords a little, all non islam europe might have some backbone and stand up the the islam vermin in their midst.