and the GOP taking Senate races in PA, MI, and WI.

Then even you have to admit you’re getting … desperate

a/k/a The Guy who told the press Trump's inaugural crowd was bigger than Obama's.

Why stop at Sean Spicer...go full Roseanne Barr..lol

-- Modified on 10/4/2024 1:45:27 PM

She leads or is tied with every betting market the RCP follows.

The graph at your link shows Trump rising for the last two weeks or so.

The subject is swing state betting surge, and you refer us to betting on the national popular vote.  Even then, as Lester pointed out, the national averaging shows Trump rising and Kamala sinking.

I expect Lester to do that but I now see you joined the band. The national vote, state vote and money line has barely budged in the aggregate and the two of you def need to look up the word "surging." If anything, Trump has gained fractionally and may just be nothing more than noise.

He claims he won't vote for Trump but then he reverts to political hackery to support him.
I'm skeptical. I think he's a crypto-Trump voter.
But like many Trump voters who don't want to appear stupid, he won't admit it.

Imagine if I put up a DNC poll/moneyline to make my point that Kamala was "surging?" The race has settled in. It's very tight. I cant see it not being very tight in a month. I think she leads by a VERY narrow margin, like she did last month, like she did the month before that but it's certainly not "surging" in either direction. The only real surge was when Joe exited and Kamala came in. That's been it.

The graph at the link YOU posted on betting markets shows that Trump has been rising over the past two weeks or so -- in the betting markets. It's your link. You picked that site.

The PolyMarket betting market peaked for Kamala around Sept 20 and has had her in a general decline since then.

Running to a pro-Trump site again Lester? She still leads in the aggregate of national polls, states polls and the betting markets. Play a new tune Lester. This one has gotten so old.

Some "surge." lol.

the concept of "trending."  Averages that include polls from two weeks ago are obsolete now.  Her "lead" is from holdover polls of two weeks ago.  This race is moving towards Trump so fast the aggregating sites don't have the proper algorithms to keep up with it.  

Aggregators like RCP tend to lose their relevance at the end of the election cycle precisely because they include weeks old data. They mask any late breaking trends.

Which is why Rasmussen will start doing nightly polls with 500 samples instead of 300. He wants to see trends ASAP. He thinks a 3 day average of 1500 voters would be a useful realtime measure in the last month of the election season.

of this election cycle and knows if he wants to get ahead of it, he must change his methodology.  The rest are still stuck in the mud.

YouGov that had Harris +4 in mid Sept now has the race tied at 47/47 among 1,714 likely voters (Oct 2-4).
Trends?

Kalshi is an election market that is both legal in the USA and also restricted to people in the USA.  Looks like it opened for trading on Oct 4.  Currently has Harris and Trump essentially tied with variations around +/- 1.
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Court rulings allow Kalshi to have a market on election outcomes because they frame it as offsetting market outcomes due to elections, rather than just "betting" on elections which still remains illegal.
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PA Harris +3
MI Trump +3
Wi Trump +2

Michigan flipped to Trump in the RCP state averages.  If accurate these states would give Trump the electoral college win.

Trump’s taken the lead in the RCP Betting Average, and I noticed something interesting about “pro-Trump” Polymarket. Of the five markets that RCP averages, three of them have Trump faring better than Polymarket does.  Kind of throws Robert’s “Polymarket is biased” theory out the window.

LET THE WHOLESALE MELTDOWN OF THE DEMS BEGIN!!!    Lol

In their weekly Thursday OFFICIAL poll release, Rasmussen sticks with Trump +2.  

No matter what. Seems they’re polling the same people week in and out

Rasmussen has a track record of being right in the last two Trump elections as far as popular vote is concerned.  

Jim Cramer predicts Kamala Harris will win the presidential election.  

But let’s be honest , there’s a lot of dump ass mother fuckers out there who are dumb enough to vote for Trump .
Try to figure that one out…🤷🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️

Considerable shrinkage for Harris since last week.  I believe down 8 points in a week.  
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This is a probability of winning forecast, not a popular vote poll.

This is a graphic that must have Kamala supporters shitting their pants.

You nor Lester have ever made a feasible argument as to the connection.
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Btw, she is now leading in PA as the #1 ranked polling firm (Ny Times/Siena) just posted her 3 point lead there. 538 has her leading in all 3 Blue Wall states but marginally. Silver now backing Harris to win. Let's be honest. This is a toss up race. Both sides should be equally anxious.

I never know if you are asking a serious question or just being difficult for the sake of being difficult, but comparing polling misses in the past with current polls is merely an extrapolation of past errors. Of course they could have fixed the polling, but that also is an assumption that defies experience.  
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You would think that predicting tomorrow's weather will be the same as today is a crappy way to forecast, but in the long run it is better than a random guess.  Past is (often) prologue.

It's a totally different elecorate. Different years. There are different polling companies. Differing methods. Differing quality of companies. Past CAN be prologue...until it isnt.  
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CKS said Kamala voters should be "shitting their pants" with your graphic. Why? The image shows that it's a toss up race. Havent we all been saying that for quite some time now? Not sure how your post changed that fact at all, but CKS feels it is somehow super significant and I was just asking why as I dont see how it changes one thing about this race.

ABC Harris +2
NBC tie
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Both polls are a week old. Not sure why they are released today, maybe rerelease?  Anyhow NBC poll is registered voters -- lame.  Should do likely voters at this point in the race

More shrinkage.

New national poll I saw earlier shows tied at 48%

It's "new" but says the data was collected 4-8 of Oct. That's a week ago.

I noticed that as well but it the Today show ran the same story this morning so who knows.

In 2020 Rasmussen final poll had Biden +3.  So this is a good poll for Trump, a 6 point swing.  

…meanwhile Harris is trying to shore up support among black men. I get the feeling Trump is going to win big.

Harris +1 National
Trump +2 battleground states

Well, to be fair they expect 98% of Harris voters to be women. The other 2% are non binary.

Hillary and Joe were well-known politicians and each won their respective primaries.  Kamala ran in 21020 and dropped out before receiving a single primary delegate.  This time she just usurped the delegates that Joe fought for and won.  I think a lot of voters are uneasy with having this candidate that four months ago was being talked about in terms of dropping her as Joe's running mate now running for the top job.  

Shrinkage continues

have a hole in the bottom where voters are leaking out.  

The cameras at Trump rallies always pan around 360 degrees to show the entire crowd consisting of tens of thousands of supporters, while at Harris rallies, they stack 90% of the crown behind Harris in bleachers and only a few hundred in front that are within the frame of the camera, giving the impression that there are more people there than there really are.   There are very few where they pan the camera to show the ENTIRE crowd, because it's not very impressive.

That's because Trump rallies are fun, happy events with Trump as the main act.  It's become a cultural rite that people want to be a part of. Kamala is manufactured "joy" where she comes out and reads a canned speech.  She hasn't built a following like Trump (no time and no real personality for it.)  

Trump hit highs in PolyMarket today that he hasn't had since the end of July, just after Biden dropped out.  So he has overcome ALL Kamala surge.  Of course PolyMarket is a betting market, not a poll, so for what it's worth.

Are you upset that when the press's cameras actually pan Trump's rally crowds they show empty seats and people leaving?
Please tell Fester the news gently.

At Trump's town hall yesterday, he had to suspend the event twice because people in the audience passed out from the heat and the EMT's had to be called in.  He remarked at one point that no one was leaving.  

And of COURSE "He remarked at one point that no one was leaving." And you believed him! LOLOLOLOL!
He says that because Harris and others have rightly noticed people leaving his rallies. Go look at the video of the last half hour of his RNC acceptance speech. You'll see people streaming out. One Republican commented, "Trump lost the room."
How pathetic.

"lost" the room because everyone wanted to get on to partying, but how many of those people will NOT vote for him?  My guess is somewhere between ZERO and NONE.

How many of those people won't vote for him was NOT the point. You know this but, of course, you need to dodge and weave. The point is that Trump is such a poor presenter he can even "lose" a room of his faithful. And if he can do that, how is he going to grow his base?

Oh he's drinking more than that.....

He still/always hates facts.

Slip-sliding away.