Gauntlet thrown NRSC’s @SteveDaines tells me Rs may have just won the Senate till 2030 “We’re grateful that we have those additional seats beyond the 51 majority. I think it bodes well for us to keep the majority through the rest of the decade.”
But what about Daines’ prediction? It’s bold, yet plausible. Democrats just had a nightmare of a map, so the landscape will only get better from here. But not that much better in 2026 or 2028, barring a dramatic political realignment.
The article then goes into a break down of key races in 2026 and 2028. Not good news for Democrats.
Bottom line: Unless Democrats find a way to expand their appeal among white voters without a college degree, their prospects of proving Daines wrong look daunting. Those voters carry disproportionate influence in the two-seats-per-state Senate, given the large number of rural states with small populations
We are going to predict political power SIX YEARS from now? Weren't Rs telling us the day before the 2022 midterms it wound be a massive red wave? That was 24 hours before an election you want to predict out to 2030? Sounds like more of a hope than a prediction.
It’s not silly, Robert. Look at the map and then reread the article. It’s not about predicting elections out to 2030. It’s about the next two cycles, 2026 and 2028. But I wouldn’t worry too much about it. As Lester noted, the GOP establishment could take this electoral advantage and royally screw it up.
A million things in addition to the GOP establishment screwing up could happen. We could be at war, in recession, a black swan event like COVID could happen (God forbid!) or tons of things we cant even think about. Yes it is VERY silly to predict out six years in politics, as each week is like a month, whether it is you doing it or NBC News.
I'm expecting Trump to kill the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) fairly quickly. That could shake up the electorate. (It has also been noted that several red states refused to participate in the ACA because they didn't want to pennies to their budgets to reap millions in benefits. Those red state voters won't notice any changes when they still have no place to go for their health care.)
Posted By: RespectfulRobert
Re: NBC News is above criticism? Since when? A million things in addition to the GOP establishment screwing up could happen. We could be at war, in recession, a black swan event like COVID could happen (God forbid!) or tons of things we cant even think about. Yes it is VERY silly to predict out six years in politics, as each week is like a month, whether it is you doing it or NBC News.
a Trump victory over six months ago. Turns out he was on the right side of calling that one and you weren't. It's bad form to criticize someone else's prediction when you were massively wrong on your own prediction. When we talk about "more hope than prediction," it is clearly the Dems here who own that phrase.
Trump won enough districts to give Republicans 231 House seats. They’ll have 220. . Enough states to give Republicans 57 Senate seats. They’ll have 53. . This is why Glitch McConnel and his Mini-Me Thune are going to lose the GOP majorities again. They're protecting the deep state establishment grifter class. Trump won the election for the GOP. The GOP would be out in the wilderness if Trump hadn't been the nominee.
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