It is not a secret we live in a complex world.
1) The Chinese, who our president believes will help stop North Korea from developing more nukes, covertly helped North Korea develop an infrastructure that started the ball rolling. 2) The Russians, for whom our president seems to have a very strong affinity, brought North Korean scientists to Russia and provided the training necessary to push North Korea closer to full development of a nuclear capability. 3) Open source info between European scientists and the world at large, helped even more. 4) Then a Pakistani scientist smuggled in the main ingredient to bring the North Korean program to fruition. Today, the Chinese are happy with the status quo and prefer a North Korea they can control on their southern border rather than a hybrid Korean presence with U.S. influence.Not just because we can't have that nut Kim with a nuke tipped ICBM. Don't you think the Iranians have told Kim they'd just love to give him a few billion for a nuke like that to put on the ICBM they're developing? If they haven't, they will. And if it's one thing Kim needs, it's cash.
That is the $64 million question.
I mean, yes, of course, we will go down the diplomatic route for awhile but does anyone here really believe this wont end in a military conflict of some sort?
Of course that would be catastrophic but what is the downside of not doing so? I don't see any "good" alternatives, but allowing Kim the ability to reach most of the U.S., if not all of it soon, with his nuke armed ICBM's is unfathomable.
N Korea is unlikely to ever believe the US has the political will to start a shooting war over this, but that said, they are at least "more likely" to believe Trump would attack them than Obama who would flat "take it off the table" before negotiations even started.
Even with a supposed "madman" in charge of our military as well as theirs, I think Kim would be more than happy to play a game of "chicken" with us, it's simply almost inconceivable that as fractured as we are politically that we could unite to the extent it would take for us to go to war that would undoubtedly have catastrophic consequences to every country in the region, especially our ally South Korea.
China has been and always will be the key, but it would be foolish to believe that China would ever do anything that was not in the interest of China. Somehow Trump is going to have to convince the Chinese that it's in THEIR interest to get their dog back on it's leash. In a way it's not all that different than our influence over Israel in the ME. We don't control Israel, but we hold a LOT of influence over them. Kim is a delusional madman and it would be a huge stretch to say the Chinese "control" him any more than we control Israel, but the Chinese are capable of getting the situation back under control, but "only" if they think it's in their best interests to do so.
Is there an easy solution? Fuck no, but China is our best bet, but I bet their price is going to be steep.
And that assumption is Kim believes in the M.A.D. doctrine. History tells us the Russians/Soviets do/did, and the Chinese as well, but does Kim?
How often does the right and left in the U.S. agree on anything anymore but it does seem both sides are in agreement that Kim is mentally unstable.
So if we don't get China to step in, or the N. Koreans rebuke any Chinese effort, what then? Do we do nothing and just hope they are restrained by M.A.D. as the North Korean arsenal and missile technology grows and grows over the years?
Do we try and assassinate him and push for regime change from within?
And what if Kim becomes paranoid and thinks we are about to attack him, even if we have no plans to, and initiates a first strike? Wouldn't it be best if we struck first?
All questions well above my pay grade.
So what do we do? First of all, the sanctions just put in place are meaningful so we should allow some time to see if they work and if China seriously backs them. How much time? At least six months. N. Korea is in bad shape already and if their exports are actually cut by 1/3 it will hurt. After all, it was tough sanctions that brought Iran to the table, though they are not as nuts as the North Koreans. It's also possible that if the sanctions bite hard enough Kim will be overthrown.
Second, I'd consider telling them their next ICBM launch will be intercepted by the THAAD system now in S. Korea. Of course, if we SAY that we must then do it, not knowing what Kim will do in response. He can level Seoul in a few days with conventional artillery and we'll have to fire back. War is then inevitable, with hundreds of thousands of Koreans dead, maybe tens of thousands of Japanese and thousands of Americans. Not to mention the world economy and stock markets in a shambles.
OK, maybe my second point ain't worth the risk. That said, even the nightmare scenario above is MUCH less bad than if Kim gets nuke-tipped ICBMs to lob at us, Japan, etc.
It's a real conundrum.
How badly do you think sanctions really hurt? Most of the North Korean people already live in poverty and all too many die of starvation. Kim remains insulated from it all and feels no "direct pain." If only the pain and suffering of the North Korean people was enough to make those close to Kim, have a conscience, and take some action. Other than someone close to him taking him out, can we be sure sanctions affect those we truly want them to affect?
-- Modified on 8/8/2017 1:39:18 PM
First, if there are food shortages in the country, people will start fleeing (as they have in the past) into China, putting more pressure on that country.
Second, some of the sanctions are aimed at the N. Korean elites, depriving them of luxury goods, etc.
Jake, maybe I am missing something. Haven't there already been extreme food shortages for an extremely long time? Aren't the North Korean "elite" pretty well insulated from sanctions because they are part of the regime?
That's gotta help.
How do you spell "feckless?" Could it be T - R - U - M - P?
I suppose he could have led off with, "We hereby take a military response off the table". Yeah that would have had Kim quaking in his boots.
I know Kim is still hardly in fear of Trump, but he has to at least talk like we aren't going to be run over by yet another petty despot.
Ahhhhhhhhhhh "grasshopper." You are beginning to catch on. There ARE no simple solutions to this one! And Trump's feckless exclamation has not done anything to get us any closer to a viable strategy.
He criticized every prior president's inability to solve the North Korea problem. Let's see what he does to solve it!
One of your buddies mentioned something about giving China land and money and that would fix everything. Yet he declined to specify exactly what he meant.
Maybe you have a solution tucked away somewhere. Don't hold out, Trump has a number of key staff positions still open.
Contrary to popular belief not everybody on one side of the aisle is smart and not everybody on the other is stupid. I will say this thread was actually a rare time where there was some actual "discussion" going on until a couple of retards joined in, but I will try to keep the actual "discussion" going on.
Believe it or not, I don't really disagree that Trumps statements weren't particularly helpful, but at least he didn't box himself in like Obama did in Syria. That was REAL dumb, while Trump's statements were just "kind of" dumb. Fortunately Trump has Tillerson to walk back some of his statements while Obama was stuck with that moron Kerry.
I still say that China is the key to solving this problem, how to convince China to do so is the $64,000 question, or more accurately a $64,000,000,000 question. China is going to act in China's interest not ours, the trick is to find out how to convince China that fixing the NK problem is in "their" interest, and I doubt that is going to come cheap considering that they have most of the cards.
He gets pissed reading that North Korea has successfully miniturized a nuke and tells Kim if he threatens war again The Feckless One will respond with "Fire and fury." Sounds like a red line to me. So what does Kim do? He threatens to nuke Guam! Then he says he'll make mainland US a "theater" of nuclear war.
What does The Feckless One do? Nothing. He hadn't told his staff he was going to do it. It wasn't in his talking points. So his staff tapped Tillerson to tell Americans all was well and they should sleep just fine tonight.
Looks like Donnie blinked. Bigly.
Kim isn't going to nuke Guam any more than we are going to nuke N Korea.
Both sides are sabre rattling and at least Trump isn't going on record that military action is "off the table" like his idiot predecessor was known to do.
It was YOUR hero who drew a red line that make himself look foolish and feckless. I think Trump might have been a bit overly dramatic last night, but he's still doing better than Obama would have done in the same situation
1) I doubt Kim is going to nuke Guam either. But we don't KNOW he won't try, or maybe you're so close to him you have inside info? Also, the fact Kim has threatened to do this before has ZERO to do with Trump's tirade being a show of weakness. Follow along closely, now, GaGa. Trump makes his "red line" statement about "fire and fury" if Kim makes another threatening statement. Within a few hours, Kim threatens Guam AND the continental US. Trump does zilch. How is that not red-lining and blinking?
2) You act as if I was in favor of Obama's red line statement when you should know I've described it as his worst foreign policy blunder. So your attempt to link it to my statement is disingenuous or, at best, ignorant.
..."fuckless?" J-A-K-E
Trump is smart for stating his position. This way everyone knows. If it's going to happen, let it happen. It's more of a message to NKs ally in the North. I wonder what they will do? Why pussyfoot around when it's bound to happen? Better now when they (all of them) are weak.
Jake sarcastically stated "that gotta help", when referring to the NY Times article. While hoping for a peaceful, more pleasant solution with a madman.
Folks like him get pushed around all their life. There always on their heels and rely on others to bail them out and defend them when needed.
-- Modified on 8/8/2017 7:06:20 PM
He's got intemperate chest-thumping confused with real strength. If you think Trump's mindless and inflamatory posturing will make Kim snap into line you are denser and more naive than anyone thought. Well, actually, I'm sure most of us thought you WERE that dense and naive before, too.
You caught the dense part. Lol.
-- Modified on 8/8/2017 10:41:40 PM
Good post!
Have not heard that term in quite some time. What makes Kim so dangerous IS the insanity factor. On a scale of 1 to 10, he is pulling down about a 25 or more. One must ask themselves, in light of how easily he finds it to persecute his own people, would he even care about the consequences to the North Korean people, if he forced push to become shove and we completely wiped North Korea off the map?
Not sure assassination of Kim is a viable option. If we truly could have assassinated Kim, wouldn't we have done so already.
What would it REALLY take for China to intervene? I believe that is the true center of gravity for the North Korea situation.
and LAND for China to act.
At what point do we tolerate the action of a 25 or more on the insanity factor? Before we act with our military. Sanctions have been tried and seems like the most reasonable response right now. But, NK has a very powerful nation to the north that keeps them afloat. Should we depend on said nation to act in our best interest? For now, I believe it's the only option, but we will regret waiting if/when the time comes.
-- Modified on 8/8/2017 6:30:44 PM
Right, Albert Einstein! Such a genius! You sound like a true strategic thinker! Spell it out. Land and money? Don't be shy, be more specific. Go ahead and show off that razor sharp intellect of yours! You sound like someone else all Americans with at least a 65 I.Q. are concerned about, with his half-baked ideas!
Now I know why Jake calls you "Happy Chimp." You made a statement. I questioned your veracity to follow through. Land and money? Go ahead. Elaborate. If you do not understand what the word means there are always online dictionaries.
On our Independence day we watched Kim chain smoke for over an hour watching his cronies getting ready to fire their Hwasong 14 ICBM.
A few hawks in central command wanted to destroy Kim with his pet rocket project on the spot where he stood.
Fortunately we have a wise President who knows how unpredictable and foolhardy a forced regime change could be.
Too bad for innocent Libyan citizens we didn't have a strong President with vision in the USA to foresee the world wide negative consequences immediately after Gadhafi was overthrown.
Good post!
Not sure assassination of Kim is a viable option. If we truly could have assassinated Kim, wouldn't we have done so already.
...the President of a unified Korea because you've been such a loyal puppy dog. You'd love that - you'd get first crack at K-girl crack. They'd be FOTB before they even got on the boat.
Very astute observation! Trump is a very wise leader at that! Do you think Trump has given Putin the nuclear codes yet?
So tell Putin his pro Trump propaganda is not working on here.
EXPLODE. US military action against North Korea triggers action everywhere. South Korea gets pummeled. Russia invades Ukraine, along with the Baltics while the European's watch. China supports North Korea, scopes up stategic islands in the South China Sea and invades Taiwan while Japanese watch. Iran launches missiles at Israel, invades Iraq starting another quagmire. Syria gases its resistance. The Europeans continue to watch and the Saudi's (maybe) watch.
Can we rely on diplomacy and hope that China interjects? While militaries continue to gain strength knowing that a madman will soon have a nuclear weapon aimed at us.
Another option is to take a chance and sanction the assassination of Kim Jong Un and see where that leaves us.
I am assuming Donny Boy wants to bomb the living shit out of them..
for the 25the Amendment. We need Pence and Congress to get rid of Trump via the 25th amendment. I've stated multiple times that, Trump's incompetence is checked-and-balanced by Congress. (Hence absolutely no remotely significant laws passed despite Repub House and Senate). And, again, I stated that tat the fucking scarry point is that Trump is Commander-In-Chief and now he's threatening N.Korea.
Does anyone ANYONE trust Trump with the nuclear codes???????
Side/related note: we've never ever had retired generals - Mattis, McMaster etc. in these positions. It's always been civilians. Military types have NEVER seen a potential war that they didn't want to be in
Hopefully we all won't die soon due to Illigimate POTUS