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Re: Too bad it's fading, . . . . (And Fading Fast! NY Times/Siena Poll Just Released)
cks175 44 Reviews 54 reads
posted

BREAKING - HARRIS HONEYMOON OVER: Donald Trump overtakes Kamala Harris in the latest New York Times poll released minutes ago.

NOTE: Trump is leading Harris by 1 point in the latest New York Times poll, showing the 2024 presidential race is extremely close.  

NOTE: The poll, conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, has Trump at 48% and Harris at 47%
Related Link: Honeymoon Is Over

cks175444 reads

According to leaks the joy is gone and there is increasing discontent within the Harris-Walz campaign. Kamala angrily referred to members of her team as “totally incompetent” during a call for failing to secure changes to the Sept 10th debate rules that she believes would have favored her
Who expected the Harris- Walz honeymoon to last just a few weeks?
Staff is also blaming Walz’s “awkwardness on the campaign trail” for her declining poll numbers.
Maybe they expected Walz to contribute to the “convention bounce” that never occurred.
She does hold the record for staff turnover at 92% as VP. Something tells me if they’re leaving in droves the problem might be her. I’ve heard making the office a more joyful setting helps with employee retention.

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cks17547 reads

You just can't fake this level of personableness (see: Vance, James David). Kamala Harris has a level of being down to earth and friendly that eclipses even President Biden. It's unique and it's special.
Related Link: Harris In Pittsburgh

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RespectfulRobert45 reads

Yes we will all take that very seriously. lol
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Speaking of her poll numbers....she was leading Trump nationally on August 1 by 1.2%. Today, she leads by 3.1%. On what planet would that be considered "declining?" lol.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
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And you of all people know that she has taken the lead in the state polling too, as you run away from the RCP map you were so in love with just a few weeks ago. Trump had 312 EVs at his height and now she leads 273-265.
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Now allow me to show you the current map since you can never seem to find it these days:

Related Link: http://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

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inicky4645 reads

from our resident political hacks.

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cks17521 reads

Nicky made a habit of looking down his nose at any Kamala story relying on unnamed sources.

Once again we find out Halperin was right:

It appears @MarkHalperin original reporting was right.  Pelosi's plan was for an open primary, but Biden stuck it to the establishment who threw him out by endorsing Kamala 30 minutes after dropping out.  

This is why Obamaworld, Schumer etc were so late to endorse.. they didn't want her.

Nancy Pelosi to the NYT:  “had the president [Biden] gotten out sooner, there may have been other candidates in the race.”  
 
“The anticipation was that, if the president were to step aside, that there would be an open primary. “  

“And as I say, Kamala may have, I think she would have done well in that and been stronger going forward. But we don’t know that. That didn’t happen. We live with what happened. And because the president endorsed Kamala Harris immediately, that really made it almost impossible to have a primary at that time. If it had been much earlier, it would have been different”

Related Link: Halperin Was Spot On

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coeur-de-lion22 reads

over again, what sticks out to me is how we are all looking at the same polls and the Lefties here have no clue on how to interpret them.  Sadly, this continued all the way up to election day.  All of we conservatives could read between the lines on the news and polls that were out there, but the Dems here were living in fantasyland and thought something was happening that really wasn't.  

 
My only thoughts on the reason are that they were getting ALL of their news from the legacy media, CNN and MSNBC, who were willfully lying and misrepresenting to their viewers.  Maybe they don't know that if you watch Fox News, they play video clips from CNN and MSNBC every night on the topics of the day, so you get both sides of the argument by watching only one network.  That's why more Democrats watch Fox than either CNN or MSNBC.

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durran42121 reads

I agree. Even icky dick putting his "FAIL" stamp of approval on it and all along, cks was right and Mr "pants on fire" was wrong.....AGAIN! How shocking.. The leftist media really pushed their agenda as hard as they could to basically raise up the laughing stock of the democratic party (Harris) into this suddenly overnight successstory of a president hopeful. Fox News is #1 over and over again for a reason. I'll admit,  I did flip over to CNN and MSNBC late on election night after it was called. But I did that more for comical reasons. It was fun to watch them try to find excuses and squirm in their seats. JOYFUL day!!!

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inicky4626 reads

and then the entire right-wing drool crew jumps into a splooge-fest on it.  
You really can't do any better than this? Pathetic.

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durran42126 reads

Sucks to be you.

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inicky4622 reads

I made tens of thousands in the market last week. Don't believe me? Who cares? That money is still mine.
And if it sucks to be me how come you follow me around like a pet puppy pissing on yourself, you poor, jealous idiot?
Sad little man.
And now for your last word.....

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durran42123 reads

There he goes! I knew you would pull it out of the bag somewhere along the way.
Bragging about the shit you don't have more than the girls you never fucked.  

So no. I tend not to believe anything a pathological liar says...

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inicky4622 reads

We all know Loooooser is incompetent, but SPOAT is no better. Hint: you're not helping him, Pinata Boy..;;
Hmmmm....how to spend some of my new-found wealth! MASERATI GHIBLI!!!!!'
Eat your liver, SPOAT.

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cks17525 reads

Weaving the Halperin news into a previous Halperin thread made sense. Sorry if the good natured “desperation” jab rubbed you the wrong way. You’ve got to admit it’s one of your favorite phrases here at the T&R Forum.

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cks17550 reads

If it weren’t for leaks, we wouldn’t have known via Halperin  and others which weekend Biden was dropping out of the race.  

Many polls show Harris gaining, but there are indicators out there showing her momentum sagging. She’s still behind where Biden was in September 2020. Would be interesting to see where Clinton was in 2016 and compare that to Kamala September 2024.

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inicky4650 reads

He pooh-poohs actual new stories with named sources if he doesn't like them, simply because he dis-trusts the publication. Then he fails to point out that leaks with un-named sources are often wrong.
ChicKie needs to calm down.

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cks17565 reads

Was Halperin wrong? No. In fact he was spot on. And all he  gave us was unnamed sources. But since it was a negative story, the liberals here whined “unnamed sources”. I rest my case.

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inicky4650 reads

In fact, he didn't even rebut my point.

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coeur-de-lion45 reads

for Kamala.  When the Nazi's did it, it was very successful to manage and suppress the population.  

Related Link: Nazis used "Joy" just like Kamala . . . .

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cks17555 reads

BREAKING - HARRIS HONEYMOON OVER: Donald Trump overtakes Kamala Harris in the latest New York Times poll released minutes ago.

NOTE: Trump is leading Harris by 1 point in the latest New York Times poll, showing the 2024 presidential race is extremely close.  

NOTE: The poll, conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, has Trump at 48% and Harris at 47%

Related Link: Honeymoon Is Over

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RespectfulRobert43 reads

Had you done so, you would see she has 270+ EVs per a poll YOU pointed us to. lol. NY Times/Siena shows her leading in PA, MI and WI and her tied with him in NC, GA, AZ and NV.  
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Let me put it another way. In the 7 key swing states, Trump leads in NONE of them. I would expect crap like this from Lester or Willy, but this just shows how little you pay attention to details, how much of a partisan hack you are and how deceived you can be from click bait.  
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So that is now the NY Times, The Hill, CNN, 538, and RCP all having her with 270+ EVs. Thanks for helping me in adding NYT to that ever growing list. lol.

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lester_prairie44 reads

Interesting that NY Times, Rasmussen, and Baris Big Data Poll all have Trump +1.  Liberals love to hate Rasmussen, even though it called both 2016 and 2020 within the MOE and predicted the winning candidate.

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RespectfulRobert46 reads

I am glad to educate you. And it's not "liberals" hating them Lester. It's when the math is looked at they were found out to be frauds. 538 found them SO biased as to not even consider them anymore. But keep pushing debunked polling companies like them and Trafalgar. It's pretty funny seeing how far you will go to embarrass yourself but I know you just can't stop.

Related Link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/08/rasmussen-538-polling/

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lester_prairie58 reads

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lester_prairie55 reads

Welker: "Do you think Kamala is abandoning her progressive ideals?"  
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Bernie: "No... I think she is trying to be pragmatic and do what she thinks is right in order to win the election."

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lester_prairie52 reads

Yesterday PolyMarket had declined for Trump to just +2.  Today just after the NY Times poll result of Trump +1, the PloyMarket has swung (at this hour) to Trump +6.  

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lester_prairie59 reads

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RespectfulRobert45 reads

And Hpy has already shown Silver to be in Polymarkets pocket. Damn you are bad at this.

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Hpygolky56 reads

He’s laying out a suckers bet . Bet Trump , but cash in on Harris.. quietly.
He also plays into the trump narrative if trump should loose the election. Trump complaint and his lead to Jan6  do over is if he should loose is
1- Put the Nate Silver poll had me ahead, how can I loose  
2- 25M illegals votes for Harris because of our open borders  
3- My rallies had 100’s of thousands people…that’s why he holds rallies. Not to be informative but to just be there. Say shit who cares… just hold them rallys  
See, that’s Trump game  and what he’ll do if he looses. So Silver becomes that useful idiot playing both sides

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lester_prairie55 reads

He still has Harris +1 in the popular vote, compared to NY Times having Trump +1.  
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Due to the electoral college bias in favor of Republicans, the Dem candidate needs to be up 3 or more in the popular vote to have a chance at winning.  
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Why theorize about Nate Silver motivations when there the plain facts say that Kamala is presently underwater.
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Nobody is saying she can't pull it out.  This is just the state of the race today.  Don't need conspiracy theories at this point.

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willywonka4u47 reads

She can memorize talking points, she can read a teleprompter, but she’s not very bright and she can’t think on her feet.

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RespectfulRobert53 reads

Even his own people say that! They wish he stuck to the teleprompter but he doesn't have the intelligence or restraint to do so.

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RespectfulRobert48 reads

Or you are just being dishonest. The NY Times has her at 270+ EVs. Today's poll from them has her ahead in PA, MI and WI. Only you would think her winning the electoral college as of today by 5 different, respected groups would mean she is under water. smh

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cks17554 reads

Robert could, if he wanted to, argue in good faith. Instead, they whine, complain and essentially shoot the messenger.

Robert points to the Harris lead in swing state polls. But does he really believe that there’s a realistic scenario where Trump wins the popular vote in November but loses the EC?

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RespectfulRobert53 reads

It's The Hill, CNN, 538 and the RCP all consistently showing her having enough EVs as of today. Thats just a fact and you and Lester dont seem to like facts.

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cks17552 reads

Thats just a fact and you and Lester dont seem to like facts.
Neither Lester or I have said the facts are wrong, but we have pointed out alternative data points.

The question again, Robert. Do you believe that if Trump wins the popular vote in November, that Harris will win the Electoral College vote?

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RespectfulRobert41 reads

The state polling, as you well know is much more important. And there is a very wide consensus she is winning the EC, but again, it is VERY close. She has many more paths than he does and he is defending states now that he was cruising in just a month ago. She doesn't need any of the sun belt states to win yet she is tied in all of them, per the NYT.

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lester_prairie56 reads

State polls are less accurate than national polls.  People refer to state polls when the race is tight.  Probably useful to look at state polls when the range is between Republican less than +1 and Democrat less than +3.  This is the electoral college bias effect that favors Republicans by 3 or 4 points.    
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So if Trump is up in the polls by, say, 2, and swing state polls have Harris winning, the state polls are probably wrong.
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It's a statistical thing.

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RespectfulRobert56 reads

The NY Times new Pa poll will tip that state in her favor. What a swing! It was Trump at 312 just weeks ago and now it will be Kamala at 292 when they update. What a turn around!

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lester_prairie53 reads

Interesting the it's R+2.   Not sure I believe that.  Many polls are weighted D+2 or more.  If this is a bad weight then the poll might mistakenly favor Trump a bit.  On the otherhand, if the D/R split is R+2, many polls are underestimating Trump.  
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Gender split confirmed.  But the interesting thing is the age split. 18-29's are not more Democrat. More independents between 18-44 than loyalists in either party.   30-44 are D+7.  But 44-64 are R+9.  

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