Bad news for Biden not just on the surface, but when you get into the cross-tabs. Losing to Trump by 4 points. Losing to Haley by 9 points. Overall approval sinking. Shockingly plummeting support among blue collar workers and minorities.
Four years ago, Biden won that demographic by 50 points but the poll suggested the margin over Trump had since plummeted to just six points
http://www.barrons.com/amp/news/new-poll-flags-warnings-for-biden-campaign-b9dd9e9 It was interesting that they didn’t include RFK Jr or other third party candidates in the questions as to who would one vote for in November. It’s my feeling that these other candidates will have a significant impact on the final result.
-- Modified on 3/2/2024 4:45:19 AM
She would have beaten Joe handily and the Dem machine wouldn't have nearly felt a threat to democracy, if at all, from her presidency. If polls like these persist, I feel very certain we will pull the plug ion Joe. So imo, believe it or not, better Trump does against Joe, the more likely Dems will act.
I agree not including 3rd party options is a waste of a poll.
If Trump is such an existential threat to democracy,
wouldn’t you want him to lose to Haley? The logic behind your preference seems more partisan than patriotic.
I don’t see the Democrats replacing Biden post Super Tuesday. They would have no choice but to anoint Kamala, who polls worse than Biden does.
We have a much better chance of beating Trump than Haley. Much better. So with that in mind, we can have everything we want; a defeat for Trump and a Dem in the WH.
And I think you are missing the bigger point about Kamala. No one will go to Joe without going to her too. No one would want Kamala over Michelle and that has been my point all along. Michelle can put Kamala on the SCOTUS if need be to shut her up and placate her. Kamala can then say she is and always has been loyal to Joe and will step aside with him, for Mrs Obama.
If it was any other R than Trump, I don't think Michelle would even consider it but with democracy on the line, and people she trusts come to her and plead with her, I think she would step up and save us from the evil that I believe Trump is.
It’s an interesting rationale, but at a huge risk, isn’t it? The odds of Biden agreeing to withdraw, and then having Michelle swoop in to save the days are minuscule.
Also unlikely Democrats wanting to replace Biden could pull it off in a back room deal. The deeper we get into the primary season, the more Biden loyalists are being seated as delegates to the convention. It’s the Bidendelegates who will reject any attempt to unseat him against his will.
I am not saying that at least. Mayor Pete and Amy Klobuchar did Joe a HUGE favor when they stepped down when they did in 2020. I think if Joe thinks he probably cant win, and President et al go to him to have "the talk" he will repay the favor the party gave him by stepping down and citing health reason or whatever. I think that part is a no brainer.
Richard Baris, BigData pollster says Nikki gets dem leaning independents now who will go back to Biden in the general.
Nikki's main problem is that she is running in the wrong party. She's really in the Hillary Clinton wing of the Democrat party. Dems won't vote for her in mass because she has an R behind her name. But if she had switched to D (in an open election year, not against an incumbent) she'd do well in the Democrat party.
Dems wont vote for ANY Republican "in mass." They don't have to for the R to win. She would have energized the party and give it a much needed younger, newer look and fresh face that it has never seen in its history. Suburban women will flock to her and she will appeal to POC and Indys who think Joe is yesterdays news and just too old.
Her on the stage against Joe would be a striking contrast as it would pit the young, well resumed WOC vs. the worn, tired, cognitively impaired white guy. I am glad your party made the wrong choice with Trump.
Jonathan Chait makes some good points in this piece, similar to some of the points you’ve been making. Interesting article, but a quick summary:
1. If Biden is clearly on track to lose, and right now he is, then he should step down.
2. There’s still time to reverse course though. Continued economic strength and and end to the war in Gaza could do it.
3. Come summer and the convention, if still behind, Biden could step down and name the replacement ticket. Loyal Biden delegates would act on his endorsement.
4. Kamala isn’t a “winnable” replacement, but a Whitman/Booker ticket could be.
4. Fears of upsetting interest groups who would be upset about Kamala being passed over are overblown in the press. A Whitmer/Booker or Klobuchar/Warnock type ticket would be sufficient for the interest groups demanding ethic and gender diversity.
don't forget there's a reasonable chance Trump is convicted of a felony before the election. That throws all of this into a cocked hat.
Most polls that include RFKjr show he draws from both Biden and Trump, but more from Biden.
They might be lefty leaning but several psychiatrists and psychologists (including his niece Mary Trump) are pointing out that Trump's increasingly slurred speech, incoherent and made up words, and so on, are signs of mental decline towards dementia. Emph: NOT normal aging forgetfulness (e.g., Trump's "I beat Obama" (meant: Clinton) and "the insurrection is Nikki Haley's fault" (meant Pelosi) stuff. Slurred words (not just made up words like "bigly"). "Chrissush" instead of "Christmas." "Renvishes" instead of "Renovations." "Three years lady ... lady ... lady" struggling to say, "Three years later."
.
If there are righty analyses of Trump's current condition (compared to 5, 10, 20 ... years ago) to balance Gartner and others, please post them. And everyone knows (did you see what I did there? I used a Trump trick) EVERYONE KNOWS that the Montreal Cognitive Assessment http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Cognitive_Assessment is NOT what Trump thinks it is. It is NOT an exhaustive, definitive evaluation of cognitive condition. Rather, "the MoCA is a one-page 30-point test administered in approximately 10 minutes." "It is a widely used ***screening*** assessment for detecting cognitive impairment."
.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/like-someone-pulled-the-metaphorical-plug-dr-john-gartner-on-trump-s-accelerating-dementia/ar-BB1jafdg
"Like someone pulled the metaphorical plug": Dr. John Gartner on Trump's "accelerating dementia"
.
"... "in [Gartner's] opinion, Donald Trump is dangerously demented. In fact, we are seeing the opposite among too many in the news media, the political leaders and among the public. There is also this focus on Biden's gaffes or other things that are well within the normal limits of aging. By comparison, Trump appears to be showing gross signs of dementia. This is a tale of two brains. Biden's brain is aging. Trump's brain is dementing. ..."
.
"... Trump is also showing signs of "semantic aphasia" where he is using words in the wrong way. ..."
.
Here's a video interview with Gartner:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuZw_8mM6xE
.
I have related concerns. First of all, Trump's Cult will not abandon him or not vote for him under any circumstance. Trump can be frozen in place, arms folded up like a puppy begging for a treat, head back, slack jawed, eyes glazed over, and blood seeping from his eyes and ears. They will STILL vote for Trump. If Trump pulls a Mitch McConnell and actually does freeze up for 30 - 60 seconds, will the NON-MAGA R's insist that Trump be replaced on the ballot. I don't think so: They'll say, "McConnell is fine, it was just a temporary 30 second thing. His brain scan found nothing. [Rim Shot]" The Cult will still vote for Trump.
.
If his condition gets a LOT worse, Trump will have to be replaced. And I don't want that. (1) He will use it to avoid accountabilty in all of the court cases. "Trump isn't feeling well today. Here's a note from his doctor. We request a 5 year delay until he gets better." (2) Haley or another stronger but still Trumpian candidate will take his place on the ballot. The Rs, even the Non-MAGA Rs, will need someone MAGA to keep the Trump base and not lose them to a third party nut job. Maybe they'd actually pick Ramaswamy over Haley.
This idea is DOA. Democrats can't really bring it up without calling attention to Biden.
(This is a reply to lester's post but it is to willy and lost, also.)
.
Thanks for the replies, but what I meant was, "Are there any medical professionals coming to the defense of Trump and refuting the claims of Gartner and others about dementia?" Something like, "Dr. A says Trump is no worse than Biden." or "Dr. B says that the slurred speech is due to a dental issue and Trump is getting a new set of dentures." or "Dr. C says that Trump's recent MoCA result is very reassuring." or "Dr. D says Trump's extemporaneous speaking style is more likely to be incoherent and rambling over the course of a 4 hour speech than if it is only 20 minutes and scripted by his speech writers." or "Dr. E said that Trump got very little sleep the night before and was less coherent than usual but is otherwise OK."
This idea is DOA. Democrats can't really bring it up without calling attention to Biden.
I haven’t seen reports of doctors coming to defend Trump, but so far Democrats haven’t pushed the dementia attack line hard, as they know it just raises the age factor as an issue. Polling tells us that when age is the issue, Biden suffers.
Remember Imp that only a small number of voters will see these defenses and counter points. Most voters will just be aware that there’s a questioning of Biden and Trump’s cognitive capacity, they’ll come to their own conclusions. And right now the majority conclusion is that Biden is more cognitively and age challenged than Trump is.
If voters aren't looking for opinions and commentaries (lefty or righty or both), what about the videos of Trump's speeches? Or physical attendance at Trump's speeches? To paraphrase Chico Marx, "Who you gonna believe? A commentary piece or your own ears and eyes?"
.
I am not going to play complete 4+ hour youtubes of recent Trump campaign speeches, but there are many short clips (2 min to 20 min) of Trump slurring and schlurring and schlurrrrrrgggghh and so on. "Chrissush" "Revshons" etc.. Aren't non-medical, non-specialist Trump supporters asking Qs about THAT?
.
Biden is soft spoken. He has been a stutterer since childhood. His mistakes are quickly corrected ("Israel ... I mean India.") or acknowledged later. His mistakes are more age-normal than Trump's more recent speech problems. I guess you're saying that people seem to see that Biden mistakes are equal to or worse than Trump mistakes.
.
I'll wait and see how quickly Trump continues to decline and how quickly that equation changes.
I haven’t seen reports of doctors coming to defend Trump, but so far Democrats haven’t pushed the dementia attack line hard, as they know it just raises the age factor as an issue. Polling tells us that when age is the issue, Biden suffers.
Remember Imp that only a small number of voters will see these defenses and counter points. Most voters will just be aware that there’s a questioning of Biden and Trump’s cognitive capacity, they’ll come to their own conclusions. And right now the majority conclusion is that Biden is more cognitively and age challenged than Trump is.
For argument’s sake, let assume Imp is correct that we will see enhanced decline from Trump. Does that actually help Biden? The answer is no. Even if age becomes an a major issue for both of them, it will boil to a finding that either
1) Trump is as bad off as Biden is.
2) Trump is worse off than Biden is.
In both of those scenarios, age is still a negative for Biden.
If anything, a Trump cognitive fade would not mean votes moving to Biden. There’s a much greater likelihood that many voters will think they’ve got “two terrible choices at the top” and shift their votes to third party candidates like RFK Jr. Kennedy has floated a “34% To Win” strategy, and any Biden campaign attempt to go after Trump for cognitive decline will only help RFK Jr get to that 34%.
The Dems: “how do we get Biden’s dementia to not hurt us so bad politically?”
Various Dem strategists sadly look at their shoes not knowing what to do about it.
Then one Dem strategist gets an idea.
“Hey I know! Why don’t we say Trump has dementia too!”
And Imp follows right along.
The Dems: “how do we get Biden’s dementia to not hurt us so bad politically?”
Various Dem strategists sadly look at their shoes not knowing what to do about it.
Then one Dem strategist gets an idea.
“Hey I know! Why don’t we say Trump has dementia too!”
And Imp follows right along.
remember this one?
At the time, some people were saying that was Demented Trump but others were saying it was Stupid Ignorant Trump. Today, there are more converts to the Demented Trump camp.
remember this one?
when they are speaking extemporaneously, without a script, as Trump likes to do. Would you rather have the occasional non-sequitur or a blank stare into the audience when there is no teleprompter which allows him to read someone else's words?
He slurs his words, confuses people like Pelosi with Haley and many, many more. You need to find him a MUCH better excuse.
Read on...
Wow..... imagine that. Literally....a "but Trump" reply.
"BUT" that just won't wash. "TRUMP....."
Who'd of thought......🤣🤣
I'd love to stay and chit chat, But these caribbean island girls are keeping me up too late! I've got to get some rest before I fly out to the Australian coast!
For those insisting that Trump suffers from dementia, you should be in favor of having Biden accept Trump's offer to debate. The would help expose Trump's dementia to the public on a widely seen event.
.
Call Joe and tell him to accept any and all debates! It's the best way to expose Trump's dementia. Do it today!
You can't debate Trump's dementia.
.
For example: EVEN FOX admits there is ZERO EVIDENCE that the 2020 election was not secure; that the 2020 election was stolen; that Trump won the 2020 election; ... phrase however you like. Trump will begin with "I won the election by millions of votes!" Will moderators shut Trump down? Not ... a ... chance. Will ANY debate opponent be able to refute Trump? Not ... a ... chance. (Maybe Chris Christie.)
.
Now add to the list of NON-DEBATABLE FACTS that Trump will dispute. "I had the lowest unemployment ever!" "I had the hightest stock market ever!" "[insert any of 35,000+ assertions made by Trump since Jan 2017.]"
For those insisting that Trump suffers from dementia, you should be in favor of having Biden accept Trump's offer to debate. The would help expose Trump's dementia to the public on a widely seen event.
.
Call Joe and tell him to accept any and all debates! It's the best way to expose Trump's dementia. Do it today!
Correct, the debate has been settled officially. The DOJ has determined that Biden is mentally incompetent to stand trial. The DOJ has also found that Trump is mentally competent to stand trial. These are official government determinations of mental competency -- by a government controlled by Democrats.
They watch Dems like Biden screw up endlessly and then say those screw ups are Trump’s fault. Here, Imp says Trump has dementia. Why? Because Biden has dementia. And the only way to negate this weakness is to say Trump has dementia too.
How long before Imp says Trump abandoned our own people when he pulled out of Afghanistan? Or that inflation and high gas prices happened under Trump’s watch? Hell, he’ll probably say that Trump keeps falling off his bicycle.
That's called the "but Trump" syndrome. Several people here suffer from it.