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Politics and Religion

More evidence of a Harris post-debate bump.
inicky46 61 Reviews 388 reads
posted

I hope Fester and his Klan don't find this too upsetting.

Related Link: https://www.aol.com/news/yahoo-news-yougov-poll-debate-122213034.html

RespectfulRobert44 reads

Looking at only the post debate polls, Harris has an aggregate lead of 4.7%. Lester told us she had to be leading by 3% to win so yes, he must be very upset.

Related Link: http://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris

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Hpygolky58 reads

Vance in now a known certified racist who seem to keep on talking about Springfield, like dude STFU now.
Trump was in LA yesterday babbling about sending Haitians back to… get this… VENEZUELA 😂😂. Local media had fun with it by the way 😂
So let them loose, let Trump be Trump  and Vance just be just fucking weird

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coeur-de-lion44 reads

have said independents actually broke for Trump 60-40 after the debate, saying she did not tell them anything they didn't already know about what her policies are going to be if elected.  

 
Then she did the failed solo interview in Philidelphia a few days ago where the interviewer said he wanted to "drill down on the details of how she is going to bring prices down."  The next words out of her mouth were, "Let me start with, when I was a girl growing up in a middle class family . . . . ." where she went on to repeat her first memorized talking point word for word from the debate.  STILL nothing new for the independents who what to know who she is and what she intends to do if she is elected.  If you watch the video {like everything she does when speaking, it's not very long), you will see what a disaster her first solo interview was.  

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RespectfulRobert47 reads

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Hpygolky48 reads

If you look at the most current polling after the debate, Harris has expanded her lead. If it was tied or one point either way, I'd say that maybe its possible. But what's odd/strange is that the one poll who is near and dear to some, Rasmussen has trump up 2...that's is QUESTIONABLE and its a polling service I'd be suspicious of.

Friday, September 13
Race/Topic                            Poll Results                                                                Spread
National: Trump vs. Harris  Data for Progress       Harris 50, Trump 46 Harris +4

Thursday, September 12
Race/Topic                                Poll Results                                                        Spread
National: Trump vs. Harris   Reuters/Ipsos                Harris 47, Trump 42 Harris +5
National: Trump vs. Harris   New York Post                Harris 50, Trump 47 Harris +3
National: Trump vs. Harris   Rasmussen Reports        Harris 47, Trump 49 Trump +2
National: Trump vs. Harris   Morning Consult        Harris 50, Trump 45 Harris +5

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RespectfulRobert51 reads

Related Link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/08/rasmussen-538-polling/

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lester_prairie51 reads

RCP and Nate Silver still use Rasmussen,

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Hpygolky51 reads

My guess and yes the Rasmussen poll was one time a reputable polling service but this year, not feeling it.
And I'm sure it'll be one of the polls, along with Nate Silver that if trump should loose . those will be the polls he'll use for his, .."I was ahead in all the polls, how can I loose".
He's setting up his coup part 2

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lester_prairie53 reads

Mark Mitchell, head pollster for Rasmussen, explained that the new Disney 538 demanded Rasmussen answer a lot of questions about methodology and associations.  Rasmussen refused to divulge that so 538 used it as an excuse to nix them.  Nate Silver defended Rasmussen and keeps them in his Silver Bulletin report.  RCP also had no reason to eject Rasmussen.  Disney 538 is hyper liberal, so the bias reason is probably true -- liberal bias.

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RespectfulRobert49 reads

They are now just a wing of the R party. Sad. They used to have a good rep.

Related Link: http://themercury.com/michael-hiltzik-this-gop-leaning-political-polling-firm-has-turne...

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Hpygolky49 reads

Normally I don't take polling too serious. But when I see polls going in one direction, and then one going slightly the other way....Something smells. When Micheal Cohen mentioned manipulating polls, I think trump has a hold on Rasmussen, and good ol Nate Silver. Rats in my books

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RespectfulRobert51 reads

As for the RCP, the aggregate of their post debate polls has Kamala up 4.5%, her biggest lead there yet.

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lester_prairie50 reads

AtlasIntel was rated the most accurate in the 2020 polling by FiveThiryEight (see graph on following message)

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lester_prairie49 reads

Most accurate poll for 2020 presidential election, according to FiveThirtyEight

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lester_prairie54 reads

You can get the crosstabs from AtlasIntel at the link

Related Link: https://www.atlasintel.org/polls/general-release-polls

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lester_prairie49 reads

Some selected AtlasIntel crosstabs:
.
Trump wins men by 12%
Harris wins women by 5%
Age 18-29 Harris +5.5%
Age 30-44 Trump 12.6
Age 45-64 Trump 1.8
Age 65+   Harris 0.5
Trump wins all income levels
Harris wins urban
Trump wins suburban and rural
Asian Harris 2.4
Black Harris 48.3
Hispanic Harris 12.3
White Trump 14.5
Independent Trump 3
Harris gets 2.5% of 2020 Trump voters
Trump gets 9.5% of 2020 Biden voters
Didn't vote or don't remember in 2020, Trump +11.5%
.
Candidate rejection 47.5% reject Trump, 50.9% reject Kamala, so 3.4% more reject Kamala

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RespectfulRobert52 reads

Let me give you a history lesson. In 2016, Hillary beat him by 13 with women.
In 2020, Biden beat him by 15 with women.
.
Fast forward to present day. This week, in post debate polling of women:
1) ABC/Ipsos has her leading by 13
2) Data for Progess also 13 (full disclosure: this is a polling firm run by Democrats)
3) Yahoo has her up by 11
.
Her aggregate lead in those polls is 12.3%. If you want to take out the Dem firm, it's 12%.
(The only full post debate poll I couldn't access is the Morning Consult poll as you have to subscribe to get the cross tabs I believe. But she leads on the top line by 5 so we know she leads with women by a lot more than that.)
.
Knowing all that Lester, you still think Kamala is only up 5 with women or do you think its much more likely that the Atlas Intel poll is deeply and absurdly flawed?

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lester_prairie63 reads

I don't like Hillary, but she is miles more competent than Kamala.  Hillary must be seething at being compared to Kamala.  Kamala slept her way to the top, which is not particularly popular with the other ladies.  So it is certainly plausible that fewer women will vote for Kamala than for Hillary.  That said, I merely report polls, I'll let you deride.

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RespectfulRobert48 reads

You didnt JUST report a poll, Lester. You gave us several, ridiculous reasons as to your hyper-partisan "plausibility" of an obviously flawed poll, so don't lie on top of doing such. No need for that Lester. You can do better.

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inicky4673 reads

He is a proven hyper-partisan hack who cherry picks polling data. He will not and can not "do better." Because he doesn't want to.

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RespectfulRobert43 reads

I don't get why he cant even try to be objective. We are all slanted to a degree, but he just feels the need to be Trump's sycophantic surrogate at every opportunity. I don't get that part.

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lester_prairie48 reads

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RespectfulRobert45 reads

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lester_prairie48 reads

Trafalgar is rated #2 by FiveThirtyEight, just after #1 AtlasIntel.

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RespectfulRobert53 reads

Here is the current LINK, showing Trafalgar, a totally discredited right wing political hack organization at 279th! Good lord man. Get a new calendar. You are embarrassing yourself here every day!

Related Link: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

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lester_prairie48 reads

FiveThirtyEight changed in 2023 when Disney exerted editorial control by throwing out Nate Silver.  It's been a liberal mouth piece since.

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RespectfulRobert46 reads

I wonder who that could have been? BUSTED LESTER. Now just be a man and own it.

Related Link: http://www.theeroticreview.com/discussion-boards/politics-and-religion-39/538-probabili...

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lester_prairie54 reads

Rasmussen illustrates why small sample sizes and day by day "luck" can give very misleading poll results.
.
Kamala was up 6 Sunday night and down 6 Monday night in their samples of around 370 likely voters.  It's widely known that opinions don't swing that fast.  That's why you see a smoother line when the average over several days is taken -- much more likely to get consistent results.
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Anyhow, Trump is still around +2 in the Rasmussen national likely voter race.

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inicky4647 reads

Just like YOU, Fester.

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lester_prairie48 reads

In the top five in 2020.  Maybe they know now to do it.

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