Although the deal has long been in the cards and probably would have occurred sooner had Vice President Kamala Harris won the 2024 U.S. presidential election, timing it for a new administration also weighs on Israeli calculations. Biden administration officials can, and will, claim that their efforts ended a bloody war that tarnished the outgoing president’s legacy among many Democrats.

However, even if the cease-fire reflects the months of negotiations and constant proposals put forward by Biden officials, CREDIT WILL GO TO PRESIDENT-ELECT DONALD TRUMP. Politically, the deal enables Israel to score points with the new administration, which had promised to end the war upon taking office. Trump threatened that “all hell will break out in the Middle East” if Hamas does not release its hostages—what that meant in practice was unclear, but it certainly sounded scary. He also put significant pressure on Netanyahu to accept a deal, according to Israeli news reports. Trump will bask in the accomplishment, proclaiming that he instantly achieved what Biden could not in over a year.