Gee, Greece won't be able to pay back the loans? When Greece was front and center, just saying the word Greek, and not in a good way, would cause the DOW to drop 500 points in one day. Everyone is basically coming to the conclusion that Greece leaving the EU would be OK, and w/out dire consequences. They need their own currency to devalue to give them any chance in hell.

I don't know what you are reading, but I wouldn't necessarily bet against Great Britain, Finland, or anybody from opting out of paying an expanded funding of IMF.

Italy and Spain had a good bond auction today. Le Pen shows up every 4 years, kinda like Nader.

Today I read on article about a woman with 2 vaginas. Of course the questions I had weren't addressed in the article (lol)

and some very bad ones but on the whole she is way too radical to garner significant political support.

      She has some really wacky ideas about taxing corporations – if they distribute profits to shareholders, they should pay a higher tax; if they use profits to increase salaries for employees or for profit sharing, they pay a lower tax. This just favors entrenched management and discourages investment.

    Whether ditching the Euro is a good idea or not is above my pay grade but I know she is also very protectionist. Her father is a chapter of France all by himself – he once said the Holocaust was a “detail” of World War II and was convicted of violating the Holocaust denial law.

   No way she will win. But no question she is a very smart lady.

and daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen. Jean-Marie, although still alive, has passed on the baton for leader of the National Front Party to his daughter.

financial news for the day and came across a few disturbing items.

The Greek bond deal still isn't settled and Greece is probably in depression with their borrowing needs increasing, tax receipts decreasing. The head of the IMF now says 50% haircut is not enough to stabilize the Greek crisis.

Great Britain has opted out of their share of expanded funding for the IMF. Cameron says no more money at this time and Finland says "maybe" on their tranche but has to go to the voters. The US can only pony up by vote of Congress. This is not likely at this time. IMF more than likely  will miss their 200 Billion target. At any rate Christine Lagarde the current head of the IMF says 200 Billion is not enough to keep the Euro out of the ditch.

The biggest lender in Italy for small business and private citizens is officially the Mafia. Banks refuse to make loans. They are borrowing 3 year money from the ECB at 1% and buying short term German, French, Danish, and Norwegian  bonds raking the spread.

France's far right leader Le Pen is gaining in the polls running up to the upcoming elections. She is saying she will balance the budget by 2017, withdraw from the EURO, kick out all of the immigrants and set up tariffs on all imported goods and services.

Poll this week shows she is 2% behind Nicolas Sarkozy, current President and 5.5 behind Socialist frontrunner Hollande. They expected Hollande to be the next President or it's his to lose.

Le Pen just this week published her position and took a big jump in the polls. If she wins or holds a block of seats there will be hell to pay in Europe.

I always read Reuters, La Monde and the BBC Word. Cameron has formerly notified the IMF they will not pay their  tranche and Finland has likewise notified they can only pay pending passage by vote. Both are widely reported in Europe.

Now for my point:

Failure to secure a Greek Bond deal will trigger a credit default. Which means the CDS's will have to be settled. Counterparties in Italy, Spain, France and Germany will have to pay. Greek banks will be broke, no bankrupt. Greece will have to leave the EEC.

Major banks in Italy, Spain and France will be broke. They will require large government bailouts. Remember it's just not the Greek state debt but the private debt is much much larger. It's peoples cars, houses, businesses. It all financed by banks outside the country.

There is a growing movement both in England and France to leave the EEC. The conditions in Greece, England and Italy are already changing the political landscape.

Germany and France are trying desperately to manage a train wreck without having to fix the rails or part with brass.

Oh, and I'm sure the Mafia will provide reasonable rates on their loans. After all they are a bunch of nice guys.

when mainstream politicians fail to deliver, then outside the mainstream ideas look a hell of a lot more appealing.

I've said for a long time that what this nation needs is a new FDR. I think we're more likely to get an American version of a Hitler.

The fact that a radical like Ron Paul can essentially finish in a statistical dead heat at the top in Iowa and come in 2nd in NH (he outright won one county) indicates that a substantial portion of the electorate is becoming willing to embrace candidates and views well outside the established mainstream.

The same is happening with LePen. Even if she doesn't win, the fact that millions of people will vote for her means something important; and the long range implications of its meaning are ignored in favor of short term elections at our peril.

As perceptions of corruption in government rise and feelings of economic security lessen, people become willing to embrace increasingly radical people and ideas. This is especially the case when apparent economic mobility is lessened in the face of these other things.

People forget just how radical FDR was for his time. Hitler was radical, but largely along the lines of FDR during campaigning (see the 25 points of the NSDAP). Both were elected in bad economic climates.

The single largest security threat that the western nations face today is economic. If they don't get their fiscal houses in order, it won't be long before people are going to give Ms. Le Pen a majority.

Let me put it more concisely. "Desperate people do desperate things!"

And, more and more people are becoming more and more desperate!  

Now, from a purely strategic perspective, if I were a Hitler, I would notice that Hitler #1 ran on a platform of saving small farms, old age pensions, banking reform and stuff like that, so I would probably run as a Democrat.

To pull within 2 points of President Nicolas Sarkozy who was admittedly not popular at 30% approval rating is a big deal. Le Pen is playing to the working class in France with her ideas and it is selling very well. They have a two part election coming up and it is possible Sarkozy (providing he runs) won't make the runoff.  His recent austerity program is seen in France as a heavy burden on the middle class and very favorable to the wealthily.

Now with the reported but not confirmed S&P downgrade of major countries in Europe we should expect more turmoil in the financial markets both abroad and here in the US.  Many pension funds, and investment funds in Europe and the US can't by law invest funds in anything but AAA securities.
St Croix I usually don't provide links to verify facts I report on. I could but how many people on here read French. I do try to make reported facts as accurate as possible with more than one source.

Opinions are a different matter, some right and some wrong. My Greek Bonds aren't doing well today may not break even.